5 Cardinals most at risk of being traded this offseason

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The St. Louis Cardinals are in need of major shakeups from a leadership perspective, but it's also safe to say that roster turnover needs to be a part of that process as well.

For as much promise as I believed this young group of Cardinals bats had coming into the 2024 season, two straight seasons of performing like a bottom-ten unit is going to make bringing back the core for 2025 a hard sell for fans this offseason. You can make the argument that major changes to the coaching staff and front office could lead to a resurgence from this current group of bats, but it's hard to imagine a world where they do not shake things up with the roster as well.

That shake up should go beyond the position player group as well. While their offense is what failed them in 2024, we all know the rotation is not good enough to compete with the best in the game if they were to make a postseason push next year. That group has a variety of names they should look at cutting ties with.

Today I wanted to look at the names that I thought were most at risk of being traded this offseason. This doesn't mean they will be traded, but assuming some do, I would imagine that at least a few names from this list are involved in trades to improve the roster or the farm system.

Names to watch but did not make the list: Alec Burleson and Erick Fedde

Kind of odd names to include, right? Well, it all depends on the kinds of moves the Cardinals want to make.

If the Cardinals were to try and make a bigger move this offseason to improve their lineup or rotation, a name like Alec Burleson makes sense to consider in a deal. Why? Well, first of all, he should have actual trade value. You can't make a move for a big bat or front of the rotation starter by just packaging two or three guys you think aren't good. Burleson is someone I could see teams wanting to acquire this offseason.

Second, which actually speaks against his value a little bit, is that Burleson has regressed significantly during the second half of 2024. During the first half, Burleson slashed .288/.320/.494 with 17 home runs, good for a 125 wRC+ in 340 plate appearances. Since then, his numbers have fallen off to a .235/.295/.319 slash line with just four home runs and a 75 wRC+ in 234 plate appearances,

Burleson is now going to finish the season as a slightly above-league-average bat who struggles significantly against left-handed pitching. He is a valuable player and one who has room to grow still, but not quite the guy we thought he was becoming during the first half (at least not yet). Burleson is also a net negative as a defender, so that hurts his value as well. They don't need to force a move, but listening to offers is not a bad idea.

Erick Fedde has been disappointing since he came over at the trade deadline, posting a 4.07 ERA in 48.2 innings for the Cardinals. Prior to the trade, Fedde had made 21 starts for the White Sox, posting a 3.11 ERA and 3.77 FIP in the process. We weren't talking about some front-line starter here, but on a $7.5 million contract, that is awesome value for a middle or back-end of the rotation starter.

There's a lot of talk about the Cardinals moving some of their other more expensive veteran starters, but one route they could take is actually flipping Fedde for value this offseason, and keeping one of those other arms that could put together similar production. Instead of trading a Miles Mikolas or Steven Matz, eating a bunch of money, and getting nothing in return, they could save the entire $7.5 million on Fedde's deal and get some pieces in return. Or they could even pick up the option on one of Kyle Gibson or Lance Lynn and move Fedde.

Again, this is something the Cardinals should for sure consider, but what exactly they want to get out of their offseason (retool or rebuild) and how much salary flexibility they have will influence a lot of this.

#5 - Steven Matz

Speaking of those starters that we all have speculated that the Cardinals should move on from, Steven Matz seems like the least likely of the bunch to be moved as of right now, at least in my opinion.

Matz has one year remaining on his contract at about $12.5 million, and while it has no doubt been a bad tenure here in St. Louis, Matz provides the Cardinals with versatility that other starters they could move on from don't, and he's already under contract.

Matz should not be seen as one of their five starters entering camp this spring, but he is someone they could have in their back pocket as rotation depth and even hope that he gets back to his old self and could steal a rotation spot in the process. But assuming he doesn't, Matz would be a solid option to plug into the rotation when an injury occurs, and when the rotation does not need him, he can provide solid innings for St. Louis out of the bullpen.

While the left side of the bullpen was a strength for St. Louis in 2024, it's hard to know what the trio of JoJo Romero, John King, and Matthew Liberatore will be in 2025. Romero's fall off since the middle of the summer has been alarming, and so while he should still be an option for them next year, it would not shock me at all if he implodes next season. King has been really solid this year, but his profile will always be one that you worry about sustaining. And who knows how the Cardinals want to use Liberatore next year? We assume in the bullpen, but maybe he gets a chance to start again?

My point is that it really wouldn't be a bad idea to have Matz around as depth for both the rotation and bullpen. But with that being said, they should be open to offers in case another club has significant interest in Matz.

If they are able to move the entire contract or majority of the deal, it would be hard to pass on that kind of opportunity. The injury history that Matz has had in St. Louis is extensive, so moving that $12.5 million knowing that there is a good chance he hits the IL at some point next season makes a lot of sense.

When you compare his situation to that of Mikolas, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn, it's easy for me to see why he'd be the one to keep. Mikolas has been far more harmful to team performance, and the opportunity to move any of that money would be a big win. Gibson and Lynn are more valuable starters than Matz, but Matz can come out of the bullpen and the Cardinals can let their money roll off the books, unlike Matz.

I would not be shocked at all if Matz is traded this offseason, I just think it's less likely than the next starter that we will discuss.

#4 - Miles Mikolas

It is time for the Miles Mikolas era to end in St. Louis. Maybe this is wishful thinking, but I am at least somewhat convincing myself that the Cardinals will agree with that too.

Mikolas' extension was a major mistake by the club. I understand that having only one starter under contract for 2024 prior to the beginning of last season was a weird place to be in, but that doesn't mean you have to bring back Mikolas, especially on an early extension.

Since receiving that extension last spring, Mikolas has posted a 5.04 ERA in 66 starts, and while eating innings has been a calling card of his for the most part, the quality of those innings has continued to go downhill.

Mikolas is the starter I feel the least confident in when he steps on the mound right now, and there are multiple young arms who deserve the chance to start over him like Michael McGreevy, Quinn Mathews, and others waiting in the wings. If St. Louis is planning on bringing back any of Gibson, Lynn, or Matz, it makes very little sense to have Mikolas stick around.

For as bad as Mikolas has been, I do believe there will be teams interested in adding him at a reduced contract. The fact that he does make 30+ starts consistently is an asset for contending clubs who want a bit of stability, and if the Cardinals pay down the majority of that approximately $18 million he is owed for 2025, clubs will take a chance on him.

Most free agent starters at this point can expect contracts in the range of $8 million to $13 million a year minimum, and if you don't believe me, just go back and look at the numbers free agents got last season. If the Cardinals pay down even $11 million of Mikolas' salary, a contending club could get a guy who will give them 30+ starts on a 4.50 ERA, which is not anything to write home about but has value in today's game.

Just go look at a team like the Los Angeles Dodgers who was flooded with injuries this year. Having a Mikolas to make starts for them throughout the year would have helped them weather the storm when arms were dropping left and right. Mikolas would not be a factor for them in postseason baseball, but his value in the regular season is real.

For a team like the Cardinals, they need more upside in their rotation. They already have plenty of guys who are back-end of the rotation starters. But these elite rotations like the Dodgers already have Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, Clayton Kershaw, and a multitude of young arms who struggle with injuries themselves. They actually need a few guys they can rely on to make starts for them in June and July, knowing that they hold no value once October comes.

It's time for St. Louis to say goodbye to Mikolas. They won't get anything of substance in return for him, but shedding as much salary as they can will be worth it.

#3 - Nolan Gorman

If the Cardinals are going to shake up their offense for 2025 and add any pieces of value to this group, they are going to have to be willing to part with some promising talent to make that happen. Nolan Gorman's value has certainly dipped since last year, but he is still a piece that could help them swing a deal if they find the right suiter.

Giving up Gorman and that power is a risky game, to say the least, but Gorman has real issues right now with his swing that could hinder him from truly tapping into that. If Gorman had qualified for leaderboards this year, he would have finished the year with the worst K% in MLB history outside of the 2020 pandemic-shortened season. Gorman is always going to be a guy who battles with strikeouts, but he looked completely lost this year.

Even so, Gorman still managed to mash 19 home runs in just 107 games, so it is easy to see how he can become a 40-home-run guy in his prime if he figures out his woes at the plate. The question St. Louis must answer this offseason is whether or not they want to try and fix him, or if they can use him in a deal to bring back real value.

They do not have to trade Gorman. He is not in a Tyler O'Neill or Dylan Carlson situation where he has zero value and is hurting the team too much. They can afford to bring him back next year and see what happens at the plate, but I still believe he carries enough value to make a deal if one presents itself.

I do think figuring out how Gorman fits on the roster next year is trickier than before. Brendan Donovan seems like the club's second baseman next year with Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker, and one of Michael Siani or Victor Scott II in the outfield. Gorman can DH a lot, but we also know that spot will be frequently used to rotate players like Willson Contreras as well.

Maybe a club like the Athletics would take Gorman as a part of a package for Brent Rooker? Would the White Sox be interested in him for a buy-low candidate like Luis Robert? Does Seattle finally shop their young arms for pitching? I could see a variety of paths this offseason where St. Louis swings a deal using Gorman to get it done.

#2 - Ryan Helsley

It's been speculated often now that Ryan Helsley could be moved by the Cardinals this offseason prior to his final year of control. With the way clubs value relievers on the trade market, St. Louis could get a haul in return, sparking a retool similar to that of what the Yankees did when they traded Aroldis Chapman back in 2016.

I would prefer that the Cardinals try and see what Helsley has out of the rotation first, and he has the potential to be that second front-line starter they have been missing for a while now. But assuming the Cardinals are not going to try that, trading him makes a lot of sense.

Extending relievers is a really tricky thing when you get to the kind of numbers Helsley is going to command. Very few closers manage to stay consistent year to year, and while Helsley has done that for St. Louis, he will be entering his 30s and making a ton of money on a long-term deal if the Cardinals do extend him.

Instead, the Cardinals can leverage his value now for valuable pieces in return, accelerating this mini-retool to better set themselves up for 2026 and beyond. When the Yankees traded Chapman as a half-season rental in 2016, they received a top-25 prospect in all of baseball in Gleyber Torres. Helsley with a full year of control should be able to command a top-50 prospect or strong package overall that strengthens the Cardinals' youth in a real way.

As for their current bullpen, assuming they are not a favorite to make the playoffs next year, does it really matter that they do not have a defined closer? That's a tough recipe for a team that is trying to make a run, but since most people seem to believe the club needs to take a step back, a closer is much more of a luxury than a necessity.

The Cardinals can take a year or so to figure out the right bullpen mix or bring in a new closer in 2026 when they are ready to make a push again. But for now, it makes the most sense to capitalize on Helsley's trade value if they are not going to win at a high-level next year.

#1 - Ivan Herrera

I would be shocked at this point if we do not see Ivan Herrera traded this offseason. I think it is crazy how they have treated him this season, but if the Cardinals do not view him as their backup catcher, then he will need to be traded.

Ivan Herrera is out of options going into 2025. The club must either demote Pages and carry Contreras and Herrera on the roster, have three catchers, or move on from Herrera this offseason since DFAing him would be an absolute disaster.

I do think there is an argument to have Contreras or Herrera start to play some first base with how good their bats are and the hole they may have there in 2025, but it's unclear to me whether or not St. Louis will actually consider something like that this offseason.

Herrera is a valuable piece, and while I'd love to see them make him the backup catcher, he should be able to bring them back something of value on the trade market. Herrera is just 24 years old and under team control for another five seasons, and just put up a 122 wRC+ in 250 plate appearances for the Cardinals. Herrera's bat is one of the best on their roster right now, and while he has things to improve on defensively, that is a huge asset from the catcher's spot.

Like Gorman earlier, Herrera could be of interest to a number of teams on the trade market. If a contending team wants to add offense and is willing to part with pitching for it, I'm sure St. Louis would be interested. If a rebuilding team wants to shop a bigger bat in hopes of getting back a package of young talent, Herrera could be a part of that.

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