4 young Cardinals who should receive contract extensions this offseason

Signing a long-term contract as a young player can be beneficial for both the player and the team. The player gets financial stability for many years, and the team is able to save some money while gaining contractual control of him for many years.

While the contracts to arbitration-eligible players typically aren't the equivalent of market value, they are a significantly greater amount than what a player would otherwise receive through the arbitration process. Players such as Fernando Tatis Jr., Ronald Acuna Jr., Spencer Strider, Corbin Carroll, and Michael Harris II all had remaining arbitration years bought out and were given long-term contracts.

The St. Louis Cardinals could take a similar approach this offseason with some of their talented arbitration-eligible players. While the team would have to pay more during the players' arbitration years, the long-term savings would be substantial. The hope is that these players continue to perform at a high level.

The hardest part with these contracts is figuring out how much money the players will get. It won't be fair market value (approximately $10-$12 million for every win above replacement); however, it will be a fair amount greater than the money they would get in arbitration. Fangraphs has Steamer projections for the next two seasons in fWAR. That is a fine place to start to value the contracts of the players.

For example, Corbin Carrol signed an 8-year, $111 million contract this past offseason before completing a full season in the majors. He had 3 years of pre-arbitration and 3 arbitration years remaining. The Diamondbacks bought out all 6 years and his first two years of free agency. He will not be a free agent until 2031. Carroll is projected to have 4.6 fWAR in 2024 and 4.9 fWAR in 2025. His contract breaks down to an average annual value of $13.875 million. Based on his WAR projections for the next two years, Carroll is being paid about $3 million per win above replacement. This is a fine place to start for contracts for Cardinals players, especially position players.

Even though the Cardinals have extended players in the past (Paul DeJong most notably) that have not worked out, that path should not scare them from repeating the process now. There are plenty of benefits for both the player and the team to extend a young player through his free agency years.

Here are four arbitration-eligible players whom the Cardinals should extend.

Ryan Helsley

Ryan Helsley was drafted by the Cardinals in the 5th round of the 2015 draft. The 29-year-old fireballer has pitched a total of 194 innings in his major league career, and he has earned 33 saves in 5 seasons. His 2.83 ERA, 1.088 WHIP, and 228 strikeouts are all ranked near the top of reliever leaderboards. Helsley has been a dominant reliever for much of his career, and he has settled in very comfortably into the closer role these past two years.

Helsley has two years of free agency remaining after the 2023 season. Relievers are typically signed for shorter durations than starters, so Helsley's contract will look much different than Spencer Strider's contract. Should the Cardinals buy out the remainder of Helsley's contract, it would probably include an additional 2 years post-arbitration. Emmanuel Clase was given an extension that bought out three years of arbitration and 2 years of pre-arbitration. His contract was for 5 years and $20 million.

Helsley will probably see a contract with a similar AAV and duration so that he has two years of free agency bought out. His value would be higher in free agency, so the Cardinals will have to increase the AAV of the contract.

Prediction: 4 years, $18 million

Brendan Donovan

Brendan Donovan was never a top-rated prospect in the Cardinals' system. However, he has done the most with the time he's been given. A former 7th-round pick, Donovan made his MLB debut last year in late April. Since then, he has done nothing but provide positional flexibility with a solid offensive profile. In 2022, Donovan was known primarily for his crazy on-base percentage. This year, he has added some power to his offense. Donovan's triple slash for his career is .283/.381/.398 for an OPS+ of 121. He has played all positions in the field except center and catcher.

Donovan is not arbitration-eligible until 2026, so he has 5 years of team control remaining. Therefore, Donovan's contract would be heavy on the years, but a bit lighter on the money. Donovan has accrued 6.1 fWAR already in just two years; Donovan's extension would probably look similar to the extension given to Michael Harris II. Harris signed an 8-year, $72 million contract with an AAV of $9 million. Harris plays center field, a superior defensive position. Also, Harris's stats are slightly better than Donovan's.

Based on Harris's contract, we can roughly predict a contract for Donovan. Given Donovan's positional flexibility and solid offensive profile, he should expect to see an AAV just shy of $9 million. The length of his contract should be similar, as the Cardinals would want to extend Donovan into his free agency period. Still only 26 years old, the Cardinals would love to lock up Donovan for his prime years.

Prediction: 7 years, $56 million

Lars Nootbaar

Lars Nootbaar has become an international sensation. Many teams came beckoning for Nootbaar at this year's deadline, but the front office held serve and decided to keep him on the roster. Nootbaar is in just his third professional season. Though his career numbers aren't the best, his 2023 season numbers have been very reassuring, and his underlying metrics are always strong. For his career, Nootbaar has a slash line of .246/.352/.433 for an OPS+ of 119. He has also been a plus defensive player at all three outfield spots throughout his career.

Nootbaar just turned 26, and he is still at the pre-arbitration level for another 2 seasons after 2023. This means he has 5 more years before he is a free agent. Therefore, the length of Nootbaar's extension would have to mirror that of Michael Harris's contract or possibly even Corbin Carroll's contract. Though Lars is slightly older than both of those players, his remaining years of arbitration make him an interesting player for a long contract.

Nootbaar is a strong defender with above-average offense, particularly with his on-base percentage. He has the ability to hit for power, and he has above-average speed. A contract that leads Nootbaar into his mid-30s is a possibility, but not a probability.

Prediction: 8 years, $69 million