4 starting pitchers the St. Louis Cardinals could buy low on to save their rotation

These four starters may not seem like big moves but could be huge upgrades for the Cardinals

Even for people like me who said not to overreact to the St. Louis Cardinals' terrible start back in mid-April, it's time to begin thinking about drastic changes to the roster.

It would be one thing if the Cardinals were hovering around .500 right now or even had a bit of a losing record. But falling behind double digits in the division race and looking like a team that would struggle to beat the Oakland Athletics is a whole other deal.

While the offense has been frustrating this season, unable to score runs when needed and seemingly doing most of their production in blow out wins or losses, it's clear that their starting pitching is the big hole for their team. Jordan Mongomery is the only starter on this team with an ERA below 5.40. I can't believe that's even a real stat.

I know there have been games the Cardinals have pitched well and the offense hasn't come through, but I think there could be some truth to the fact that if the Cardinals' pitching was more stable in general, the offense may not play so "tight".

One place the Cardinals have really struggled this year is pitching with two strikes, where they rank among the worst in baseball in every stat that matters.

Sounds like that whole "pitch to contact" philosophy wasn't a great idea, huh?

Here are four starting pitchers that I think the Cardinals could "buy-low" on to improve their rotation, specifically by adding some strikeout stuff to their mix. Some of these players have underlying numbers that show future success, while others are playing well but likely won't garner much in return in a deal.

Michael Kopech

If you're a prospect guru, you'll know the name Michael Kopech from years of hype surrounding the elite stuff he possesses and his ceiling as a number-one starter. He had a really promising year back in 2021, and took a slight step back in 2022, but has really regressed statistically in 2023, posting a 5.97 ERA in his first six starts.

So, why would I suggest he'd be an upgrade for the Cardinals' rotation? Well, if you're familiar with the Stuff+ stat, it basically measures how "nasty" a player's pitches are based on release point, velocity, movement, and spin rate. Out of pitchers who have thrown 30+ innings this year, Kopech ranks 9th in all of baseball.

This isn't like Jordan Hicks from prior seasons where the stuff look's good but he doesn't actually punch guys out. In 2021, Kopech had a 13.4 K/9 and matched that with a 2.97 FIP as well. He struggled to strike out guys at the same rate last year, but he's back up to a 9.7 K/9 in 2023.

While Dusty Blake has gotten a lot of flack this year for his ability as a pitching coach, it's not really within his control that he's working with a lot of veteran starters who lack strikeout stuff. Blake is an analytics guru who can help starters miss more bats, and pairing him with Kopech could do wonders for the 27-year-old and the Cardinals' staff.

Kopech is under team control through 2025, making him an immediate and long-term upgrade for the Cardinals. If the White Sox are willing to cut bait, even if it takes a valuable young bat, the Cardinals should strongly consider this.

Lance Lynn

Now here is a true "buy-low" candidate in the form of Lance Lynn.

In six starts this year, Lynn has an awful 7.16 ERA, and his 5.45 FIP isn't much better. Lynn makes $18.5 million this year with an $18 million club option for next year, but why would the Cardinals want to take on the rest of his 2023 contract?

First, Lynn does rank 6th in baseball with an 11.57 K/9, and his 3.98 xFIP does indicate that he's run into some back luck so far as well. We are talking about buy-low guys here, so you're not going to find a true buy-low candidate who is without some flaws.

His Baseball Savant page is a mess, but his K%, whiff%, and fastball spin are still elite. I'm not sure the White Sox could ask for much in a deal, which the Cardinals could take advantage of.

Tyler Glasnow

Maybe this is just me wanting to be proven right after getting ripped back in 2021 for suggesting the Cardinals trade Juan Yepez for Tyler Glasnow (which, I think most people would agree with me on now). But seriously, I continue to think that Glasnow is worth the risk for St. Louis.

Glasnow began 2023 back on the IL, which is a huge concern with him. But when he is on the field, he is elite. Check out his key stats from year to year since 2019.

2019: 6-1, 1.78 ERA, 60.2 IP, 0.89 WHIP, 2.26 FIP, 11.3 K/9
2020: 5-1, 4.08 ERA, 57.1 IP, 1.134 WHIP, 3.66 FIP, 14.3 K/9
2021: 5-2, 2.66 ERA, 88 IP, 0.93 WHIP, 2.77 FIP, 12.6 K/9
2022: 0-0, 1.35 ERA, 6.2 IP, 0.90 WHIP, 2.96 FIP, 13.5 K/9 (returned from injury in September)

The outlier season is the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, which is kind of a weird season to take any findings from for any player. Otherwise, the highest ERA Glasnow has had is 2.66, and he's maintained elite WHIP, FIP, and K/9 numbers. Again, this is a buy-low. If Glasnow had stayed on the field the last few years, he'd require an elite package of prospects to acquire.

Glasnow signed an extension with the Rays this past offseason that has him under contract through 2024, so the Cardinals would get their hands on a starter who will be doing everything in his power to stay on the field to cash in for a huge deal next offseason. Considering it shouldn't take anyone like Maysn Winn, Tink Hence, or guys like that to acquire, I'd be all over this deal. The Cardinals cannot be afraid to make big swings to improve this club, and I'd much rather have Glasnow on my team and see if he is healthy than bargain shop for pitch to contact veterans.