4 reasons why the Cardinals would be insane to trade Paul Goldschmidt

I get it, things are bleak once again for the St. Louis Cardinals.

But unless the organization believes that they are years away from contending again, the idea of trading Paul Goldschmidt is crazy. Yet, the idea seems to be running rampant.

The speculation really began to increase after a story from ESPN's Jeff Passan was posted this past week. Passan said that one GM wondered, if they bottom out, "might the Cardinals consider moving reigning NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt?"

One general manager wondered. Hardly a substantial rumor if we are being honest with ourselves, and yet, it feels like people have run with that comment and acted as though the Cardinals are seriously considering moving their future Hall of Fame first baseman.

Even if the Cardinals are not considering that move right now, there is still a segment of the St. Louis fanbase that believes they should consider this. Some people are going to read this article and think that belief is nonsense or that it's not a real thought among fans, but it is. I don't think it's the majority of the fanbase by any means, but the belief has grown.

You saw the headline. I obviously don't think this is a good idea, and I want to break down further why I think this would be a huge mistake by the Cardinals' front office if they chose to trade Goldschmidt.

Here are four reasons why the Cardinals would be insane to consider trading Paul Goldschmidt

Reason #2 - The Cardinals would not get enough in return to make a Paul Goldschmidt trade worth it

It's hard to find fair comparisons to a potential Goldschmidt trade due to his unique situation as a reigning MVP who is in his mid-30s and still playing at an All-Star level. So let's look at the return of an All-Star first baseman that was dealt two offseasons ago, Matt Olson.

Olson was traded to the Braves for prospects C Shea Langeliers, OF Christan Pache, RHP Ryan Cusick, and RHP Joey Estes. Langeliers was the 73rd-ranked prospect in baseball, Pache was a former top prospect but had fallen a ton in his status among talent evaluators, while Cusick and Estes ranked 16th and 26th in the Athletics own farm system upon their acquisition.

Olson wasn't coming off an MVP season, but he did post a .911 OPS for the Athletics the prior season, was an All-Star, finished 8th in MVP voting, and was only 27 years old and had two years left of club control before he hit free agency. That's a very valuable player, and that's the return the A's got back for him.

That doesn't mean the Cardinals couldn't get more for Goldschmidt, but coming up on his 36th birthday and being a year away from free agency, it doesn't feel like the package in return would be much better than the Athletics got for Olson. So is that really going to entice the Cardinals to give up Goldschmidt?

Some would say "Well, trade him for an established ace then", but no team trading for Goldschmidt is going to do that. If a team is interested in him at the deadline, they are contenders. Contenders will part with prospects and fringe MLB talent, but they aren't going to give up a front-line starter to acquire a bat. That's just not how teams operate.

Beyond 2023, there are plenty of reasons for the Cardinals to hold onto Goldschmidt.

Reason #3 - If the Cardinals want to contend in 2024, there is no scenario where they are better without Paul Goldschmidt

Goldschmidt is set to make $26 million dollars next year in the final year of his contract. That's tied for 26th in baseball with Dansby Swanson, Marcu Semien, and Christian Yelich. And that doesn't even include the contracts that guys like Shohei Ohtani, Julio Urias, Aaron Nola, and Matt Chapman, who are free agents this coming winter.

You're not finding a player as good as Goldschmidt making less money than that. He's not just critical talent that the Cardinals need, but he's also one of the best bargains in baseball too when it comes to players that are past arbitration.

On top of that, the Cardinals have around $61 million coming off the books this offseason, assuming they allow Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery, Jordan Hicks, Chris Stratton, Drew VerHagen, and Paul DeJong to either test free agency or be traded between now and then. Even if the Cardinals bring back a few of those names, they'll still have enough budget to make a few signifcant upgrades to the roster in free agency alone.

The Cardinals also have more money than that to spend. Their payroll ranks 16th this year is $168 million, which is $17 million below the league average. We all know the Cardinals have higher revenue streams than that, so they should be realistically looking at $78-$90 million in payroll to spend this offseason. Now will they actually go that high? We'll see. But if they are serious about getting this club back on track, they have plenty of dollars to do so.

Not to mention the amount of prospect capital they can dip into in order to upgrade this rother further. That prospect captial could get even stronger if they end up dealing some of their other pieces at this deadline (big if, as it's too early to label them as sellers). They don't need to trade Goldschmidt to retool.

Beyond 2024, the Cardinals also should be very wary of trading away their star first baseman.

Reason #4 - Paul Goldschmidt can help this team in 2025 and beyond

It's hard to say how much longer Paul Goldschmidt will be an All-Star level player, but if I had to bet right now, I still think he's at least playing at that level through the 2025 season, even if he's not the MVP he once was.

Goldschmidt hasn't really shown true signs of slowing down, and although that could turn sideways in the next 12 months, I'd bet against that. If you look at Goldschmidt's Baseball Savant page, you'll actually see improvement in almost every underlying statistic from his 2022 MVP year, as he is barreling the ball up more, making harder contact, and has a higher expected batting average and slugging percentage.

As this team continues to bring up young talents like Jordan Walker, Masyn Winn, Tink Hence, Cooper Hjerpe, and others, along with Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan, and Matthew Liberatore, they are best set up for success by meeting their promotions with a strong veteran group of players that are already on the roster and more that they can acquire in free agency and trade. If they play their cards right, they can utilize the cost-controlled years of that young talent to spend on other positions, and really increase their chances from 2024-2026.

If they choose to trade Goldschmidt now, they are giving up a blue-chip talent for a prospect package that I doubt will measure up to the production he gives another team, and the money they "save" would not be enough to replace his presence.

We can revisit this conversation in July if the team completely falls apart and it looks like a true rebuild is needed. But if this continues to look more like a retool is needed, then Goldschmidt should not be on the table in trade negotiations.