4 reasons why the Cardinals should regret letting pitching coach Mike Maddux go

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The St. Louis Cardinals' pitching staff as a whole has struggled tremendously this year. The stats show very clearly how bad the rotation has been and how shaky the bullpen is. Many fans were unhappy with Mike Maddux while he was in St. Louis; however, the Texas Rangers are currently in first place in their division and are playing strong baseball.

Maddux's coaching career in the majors dates back to 2003 when he coached for the Milwaukee Brewers until 2008. He then moved to the Rangers from 2009-2015. A brief stint in Washington lasted until 2018, and he was then hired by the Cardinals in 2018. He coached for the Cardinals until the end of the 2022 season when his contract was not renewed. The Rangers once again picked him up to be their pitching coach for at least the 2023 season.

In Maddux's four seasons in St. Louis, he led the staff to a cumulative 3.87 ERA (top-8 during these years) and kept teams to 4.03 runs per game. Excluding 2020, the staff was in the top-5 in shutouts each year in addition to being in the top-3 each of those years in home runs allowed per nine (possibly attributable to the 98 park factor in Busch Stadium III).

Suffice it to say, Maddux led a top-10 staff in his four years in St. Louis. While the strikeouts weren't high, his pitchers did a strong job limiting runs. That's the name of the game in the end, isn't it?

Let's look at four ways in which Maddux's absence from the coaching staff has hurt the Cardinals this year. Keep in mind, coaches can only do so much to help players. The majority of the burden of performance is and should be on the starters and relievers who are playing the game.

4 reasons why letting Mike Maddux go was a mistake

Runs Allowed and ERA

Let's start with some basic numbers. How many runs is each staff giving up this season per game? The Rangers have played 91 total games to the Cardinals' 90 games. Also, keep in mind that Busch Stadium stifles runs while Globe Life Field is a neutral (100-park factor) field. These two values are close enough to rule out any statistical variance, however.

Team	Runs allowed/game	ERA	Total Runs
St. Louis Cardinals	4.98	4.55	448
Texas Rangers	4.21	4.01	383

The differences are stark. The Rangers have allowed 65 fewer runs this year than the Cardinals. Part of this could be attributed to the staffs on each (the Rangers have spent heavily on the rotation these last few years), but it is clear that the Rangers as a whole are pitching much better than the Cardinals.

Walks and Strikeouts

With the lack of a shift and the high-octane offenses that are present in today's game, it is imperative that a staff is able to strike out batters at a high clip. The Cardinals have not been able to do that in recent years. They have, however, been very good at walking batters, especially with the bases loaded.

The Rangers have a total of 257 walks and 730 strikeouts, good for a 2.84 K/BB rate. On the other hand, the Cardinals have walked 312 batters and struck out 727, a 2.33 K/BB rate. The league average is right around 2.60 K/BB this year.

One key to getting strikeouts and limiting walks is getting the first strike. The Rangers have a 1st pitch-swinging percentage of 32.6% as a team (league average is 30.5%). The Cardinals are getting players to swing at the first pitch at a 28.3% rate. Getting ahead in the count is the key to limiting walks and maintaining high strikeout numbers. The Rangers are doing that while the Cardinals aren't.

Batted Ball Statistics

High chase percentages, weak contact, and high whiff percentages are just three ways to get batters out. The Cardinals have been a powerhouse for weak contact and high groundball rates of late. The shift ban makes that approach a bit harder. Let's take a look at four stats that contribute to chases, weak contact, and whiffs.

Team	Chase %	Exit Velocity	Whiff %	Barrel %
St. Louis Cardinals	28.3%	90.1% (top-3 in league)	25.5%	8.8%
Texas Rangers	30%	89%	25.6%	8%

The Rangers beat the Cardinals in each of these four statistics. Not only are the Rangers' pitchers getting batters to chase balls, they are also severely limiting hard contact. The Cardinals are worse than league average in every one of those statistics while the Rangers are better than league average.

Understanding the Players

One thing you could always be sure of with Mike Maddux was that he would get to know the players and have a close relationship with them. "The claw" was a way for Maddux to be close to a pitcher and calm them down in a tight situation.

Dusty Blake was hired for two primary reasons: first, he showed success in lowering ERAs at Duke while increasing strikeouts, and second, he was good at taking an analytical approach to baseball. You'll see that the earned runs and strikeouts have not gone in the right direction for the Cardinals. While analytics are nice and all, it takes a personal touch to be a coach, particularly when players are struggling.

Maddux, meanwhile, has worked hard to understand his players and their strengths. Rather than focusing on analytics, Maddux has a more grounded approach to coaching. He wants pitchers to throw what they believe in and adjust accordingly.

Now we have all this data information that tells us why the ball moves and how much it moves and things like that. We always went back in the past, if you made your pitches, the hitters would let you know if your stuff’s any good. And we kind of went from there.
Mike Maddux

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Pitching comes down to a player's ability to execute. They are the ones throwing the balls in the end. However, a manager or coach can impact the mindset, the play calling, and the approach to the game. Mike Maddux appears to be doing a strong job for the AL-West leading Rangers while Dusty Blake and the Cardinals muddle around at the bottom of the National League.

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