4 reasons why 2023 may be exactly what the Cardinals needed to change their ways

1. Their model was tested, failed, and now change is coming

John Mozeliak was spot on when he said their model would be tested this offseason. That quote came in reference to the major spending done by teams like the New York Mets and San Diego Padres, both of whom imploded this season as well, but nonetheless, the Cardinals' model failed as well.

Clearly, spending big money does not mean instant success. Ask Steven Cohen about all the money he ate at this year's trade deadline. But what this season has shown, and frankly, the past five to ten years have shown, is that teams who can balance the pressure of high payrolls while still drafting and developing talent at a high level will have sustained success in today's game.

The Cardinals may be the best in baseball at drafting and developing talent. Since 2015, the club has accumulated the most WAR from the MLB Draft of all teams in baseball outside of the Houston Astros, who had two top-5 picks in 2015. The Cardinals have done this without drafting higher than 19th in any draft, and continue to crank out impactful big leaguers. Where they have missed the mark is in two specific areas - how they go about spending their payroll and the development of pitching.

While there are some promising arms coming through the system now, the Cardinals are currently feeling the ramifications of the deterioration of their pitching development over the last decade. While there have been a number of arms that failed to reach their potential as front-line starters due to injury, in general, the pitching depth has been razor-thin. Remember 2013 when the club was loaded with pitching? Well, it's been downhill since then. Funny enough, that was the last World Series appearance they had.

Mozeliak has been very open about taking accountability for this season, rather than placing blame on the players or manager Oli Marmol. The roster construction doomed this team, and he knows major changes are needed to fix this.

My biggest question is about whether or not ownership will empower Mozeliak to spend the money necessary to reshape this pitching staff. I tend to think a season as bad as this one will force ownership to make changes to the budget they allow Mozeliak to use, but time will tell if that is the case.

If the Cardinals are not aggressive this offseason, then I do believe it will be time to look at changing front-office personnel. But for now, I do believe change is finally coming.

2. Being forced to sell at the trade deadline accelerated the rebuild of their farm system

If the Cardinals were in a position to convince themselves that they had a shot to make the playoffs at this year's deadline, they not only would have avoided selling off the pieces that they did, but they also would have likely parted with prospect capital in hopes of sneaking their way into October. Luckily, that was not an option by the time the deadline came around.

Selling is frustrating. Not only did they lose very productive players like Jordan Montgomery and Jordan Hicks, but they also effectively waived the white flag on the rest of the season. This team was going to be rough in the second half without these impact players.

But more importantly, selling at this deadline allowed the Cardinals to strengthen their farm system in a big way, something they rarely find themselves in a position to do.

From the Rangers, they were able to acquire RHP Tekoah Roby, who very well could be a future top-of-the-rotation talent for St. Louis. Along with Roby, they acquired INF Thomas Saggase, who has done nothing but mash since being acquired and is now at the Triple-A level, likely positioning himself for a role on the 2024 squad at some point. LHP John King has been a quality addition as well to a very thing bullpen.

From the Blue Jays, the Cardinals acquired Adam Kloffenstein, Sem Robberse, Matt Svanson, and Sammy Hernandez in three separate deals involving Jordan Hicks, Paul DeJong, and Genesis Cabrera. Each of these names has the opportunity to become a contributor for St. Louis at some point and help build much-needed prospect depth.

Lastly, the Jack Flaherty trade brought in Drew Rom, Cesar Prieto, and Zack Showalter from the Baltimore Orioles. Rom has already received the opportunity to make big league starts, Cesar Prieto will be Major League ready in the near future, and Showalter is far away from the Majors but may have one of the highest ceilings among Cardinals' pitching prospects if all goes well.

Many people advocated for the Cardinals to extend Jordan Montgomery rather than trading him, which would have cost them a pretty penny and caused them to miss out on two of their most exciting prospects. I think it's safe to say the Cardinals made the right move there, and they now have the opportunity to bring back Montgomery in free agency if they desire.

Hicks had come on strong toward the end of his Cardinals' tenure, but he, Flaherty, DeJong, Stratton, and Cabrera were all expendable pieces beyond 2023, so maximizing their value was the wise move.

If the Cardinals are going to turn things around in 2024 and beyond, they need their farm system to keep producing talent, whether that is for their own big league roster or to be used in trades this offseason. The Cardinals did an excellent job at the deadline which sets them up well this winter and beyond.

3. The Cardinals have the trade assets and salary flexibility to make major pitching upgrades

Speaking of prospects and this winter, let me just list out some of the players the Cardinals could potentially move this offseason, not even including their young MLB position players like Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, Masyn Winn, and Tommy Edman.

Alec Burleson, Dylan Carlson, Ivan Herrera, Tyler O'Neill, Thomas Saggese, Tink Hence, Tekoah Roby, Victor Scott II, Chase Davis, Gordon Graceffo, Michael McGreevy, Sem Robberse, Drew Rom, Adam Kloffenstein, Cesar Prieto, Luken Baker, and a whole lot more.

No, they should not trade all of those guys, and it would take a lot in return for me to think about moving Saggese, Hence, Roby, Scott II, Davis, or any of those core position players I listed. But they have the ammunition to make some big splashes or fill out the rest of their rotation with cost-controlled arms as well.

I do believe the Cardinals need to make their most significant moves through free agency this offseason, but they'll likely make some rotation and bullpen upgrades via trade as well.

Speaking of free agency, between Adam Wainwright, Drew VerHagen, and the already dealt away Montgomery, DeJong, Flaherty, and Hicks, the Cardinals have a lot of salary room from their 2022 budget to work with this offseason. Frankly, they really need to raise it even more as well, which they most certainly can, and then they'll have even more money to spend.

Between those names alone, the Cardinals could have as much as $50 million in salary flexibility opened up, as well as potentially freeing up space with a Tyler O'Neill, Tommy Edman, or other trades that remove salary from their books. That number could easily be $60-$65 million before even raising payroll.

Again, ownership has to be on board with this, but if they finally open up those pocketbooks, the Cardinals are well-positioned to make some splashes.

4. The young core is ready to win now and in the future

Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Willson Contreras are not going anywhere. Contreras has finally settled in at the plate for St. Louis, and I expect both Arenado and Goldschmidt to bounce back next year as well.

But in all reality, the Cardinals' young core is ready to blossom into the next generation of leaders and stars for this team.

Jordan Walker and Lars Nootbaar already are on the trajectory to be All-Star-level players in the near future. Nolan Gorman is right there with them as well if he can stay healthy. Brendan Donovan really broke out at the plate during the summer before having season-ending elbow surgery. Masyn Winn is getting his first take of big-league action, and more young names are on the way as well.

I mentioned this earlier, but typically teams that implode like St. Louis have are clearly in need of a massive youth infusion, but that's not the case with this Cardinals team. Offensively, they are already a top-10 offense in baseball, and I expect them to be a top-3 unit in 2024. Their defense has been a source of frustration this year, but the addition of Winn, as well as the improvement of Walker and Gorman defensively, should see that unit bounce back next season as well.

2024 will come down to whether or not the Cardinals' can rebuild this pitching staff on the fly, but 2025 and beyond hinges on those young names as well as guys like Roby, Hence, Saggese, Scott II, and company. This organization is brimming with young talent, and that bodes well for their future.