4 potential trade destinations for Jack Flaherty

Unless the Cardinals go on a really hot streak, dealing away their impending free agents makes perfect sense. Where could the enigmatic Flaherty end up?

Securely in last place and well under .500 as we approach the All-Star break, the St. Louis Cardinals have about three weeks to figure out what exactly they plan to do about not only the 2023 season but also future campaigns. Will they catch fire, soar back to a break-even record, and then push for a playoff spot? Or will they continue their lackluster year and makes moves to reset for 2024 and beyond?

Let's assume another 17-game winning streak like in 2021 is not in the cards (pun very much intended) and evaluate where they might deal one of their starting pitchers, Jack Flaherty. He sports a decent 4.27 ERA through his first 17 starts this season, but if we start with that magical 2021 campaign, Flaherty has a 3.87 ERA over 207 innings, which is a 106 ERA+, slightly better than average. He also has 207 strikeouts, 96 walks, and 190 hits allowed during that stretch.

While Flaherty probably will never again have a run like his otherworldly second half of the 2019 season, he can be an effective starter, one who can take the ball every 5-6 days and keep his team in the game. Basically, he's like so many other Cardinals pitchers, a mid-rotation starter who often needs his offense to pick him up.

How many teams could use a #3 starter like Flaherty? Plenty actually. With so many hurlers getting hurt or being ineffective, roughly average production has definite value. That's how someone like Steven Matz can get a $44M contract, but let's not dig into that disaster here. Instead, let's look for possible new homes for Flaherty.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Flaherty grew up in SoCal, and speculation long has had him returning to the Los Angeles area once he became a free agent. This deal would get him there just a few months earlier than expected.

The Dodgers have suffered plenty of starting pitcher injuries. Walker Buehler was known to be out at least most of the year, while Julio Urias, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin, Noah Syndergaard, and Ryan Pepiot all have missed various lengths of time due to injuries. The result has been lots of rookies - mostly Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone, Michael Grove, and Emmet Sheehan - taking turns in LA's rotation.

The results have been a mixed bag, with Miller and Sheehan being around average, Grove being bad, and Stone being horrendous, at least when looking just at ERA. Certainly, the small number of innings each has thrown are not enough to judge any of them as long-term assets.

Still, if you're the Dodgers, who are in the playoff hunt every single season, waiting for young pitchers to figure things out at the big league level isn't enough. Bringing in reinforcements from outside the organization will be a priority for LA as the trade deadline approaches. Flaherty certainly would help the Dodgers content for a National League West title. The question is, what would LA be willing to surrender to make a trade happen?

First, let's consider if there's a way to sweeten the appeal of a deal. With Gavin Lux lost to injury for the entire season, the Dodgers also could use help at shortstop, someone who would be a step up from Miguel Rojas. What do you know, the Cardinals just happen to have Paul DeJong available, and if St. Louis would be willing to eat some of his salary, they could improve the package they get in return for a combined Flaherty-DeJong duo.

The Cardinals desperately need starting pitching. Miller is not a realistic return, but one of Sheehan, Grove, Stone, or Pepiot should be options, and the Dodgers have so much depth in their farm system, plucking another 1-2 minor league lottery tickets should be feasible.

Some may look at these pitchers' major league performances to date and scoff at such a weak return for a rental of a mid-tier starter and a new starting shortstop. But keep in mind, even Greg Maddux had a 5.59 ERA in his first two seasons. Of course, the odds of any of these pitchers - or any pitcher anywhere - performing close to Maddux's level are essentially zero. The point is, a small number of innings early in a pitcher's career aren't enough to make a solid judgment.

Flaherty would feel right at home in Dodger Stadium, and DeJong would help on both sides of the ball. Getting a potential rotation piece for 2024 and beyond would be mandatory for the Cardinals in a deal like this.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays have achieved their AL-best record despite receiving multiple blows to their starting rotation. Jeffrey Springs had Tommy John surgery in April, Shane McClanahan hit the injured list in late June, and the team recently announced Drew Rasmussen will have internal brace surgery, a slightly less invasive procedure that TJS with a shorter rehab time that nevertheless will cause him to miss the rest of the 2023 campaign.

While Tampa Bay's development team seemingly is capable of cranking out major leaguers whenever needed, it's certainly possible they'll look for external additions to bolster their staff. Enter Flaherty, who could bump Taj Bradley and his 5.43 ERA either to the bullpen or back to the minors once McClanahan is back from his IL stint. It's a move that almost seems too easy, too tidy a solution.

What about the Cardinals' return in such a move? If St. Louis threw in Matthew Liberatore, maybe they could get Randy Arozarena back! Too soon? Barring Liberatore somehow evolving into a top-of-the-rotation arm, that trade is always going to hurt.

Setting that dream aside, as stated earlier, the Rays have a penchant for developing major league talent, which the Cardinals also seem capable of, only limited to the hitting side of the equation. Again, that's why St. Louis should be looking for nearly-ready pitching in any Flaherty deal.

The aforementioned Bradley could be a good candidate to target, though Tampa Bay most likely sees him as a strong candidate for the 2024 rotation and too much to give up for a couple of months of Flaherty. Mason Montgomery is having a solid season with the Rays' Double-A team based in the city with which he shares his last name. Colby White is working his way back from an April 2022 Tommy John procedure, though he looked so good prior to surgery that Tampa Bay may value him too much to trade him for a two-month rental.

There's also the option for the Cardinals to pull in some young position players, freeing them up to use them or some of their major league batting talent in other deals to acquire the pitching they're after. The Rays' development pipeline typically is filled with up-and-coming youngsters, so a Flaherty deal to Tampa Bay could work out a variety of different ways to help St. Louis set up better for the future.

Baltimore Orioles

Here's another team with relatively young and unproven starters that could benefit from the stabilizing presence of a veteran arm. With rookie Grayson Rodriguez scuffling to a 7.35 ERA through 10 starts and Cole Irvin posting a 5.50 mark, improvement in one starter role obviously would be beneficial. And with Kyle Gibson and Dean Kremer putting up ERAs in the 4.70-4.80 range so far, Flaherty could slot into the third starter position and bump both of them down a notch.

In addition to the potential performance improvement Flaherty could bring, his presence could allow the Orioles to give their young hurlers a break, either by shifting them to the bullpen to reduce their innings workload or to the minors to keep them on a starter's schedule but in a lower-stress environment where their pitch count and effort could be more closely controlled with less concern about the outcome of any particular game.

Focusing on the return a St. Louis-Baltimore trade would bring for the Cardinals, it's not so clear that pitching is what the O's have to offer. Their depth is primarily with middle infielders. As the Reds have shown this season, if you have a lot of guys who can play shortstop, you tend to have a lot of guys who can play a number of different positions.

The specific youngsters available from Baltimore in exchange for a two-month rental starting pitcher is vague, but acquiring such depth could make current Cardinals such as DeJong, Tommy Edman, Nolan Gorman, and Brendan Donovan available for other trade opportunities. It's the buy-and-sell mode John Mozeliak and other front office leaders around the majors have been leaning on more and more the last few seasons.