4 potential trade destinations for Jack Flaherty

Unless the Cardinals go on a really hot streak, dealing away their impending free agents makes perfect sense. Where could the enigmatic Flaherty end up?

Securely in last place and well under .500 as we approach the All-Star break, the St. Louis Cardinals have about three weeks to figure out what exactly they plan to do about not only the 2023 season but also future campaigns. Will they catch fire, soar back to a break-even record, and then push for a playoff spot? Or will they continue their lackluster year and makes moves to reset for 2024 and beyond?

Let's assume another 17-game winning streak like in 2021 is not in the cards (pun very much intended) and evaluate where they might deal one of their starting pitchers, Jack Flaherty. He sports a decent 4.27 ERA through his first 17 starts this season, but if we start with that magical 2021 campaign, Flaherty has a 3.87 ERA over 207 innings, which is a 106 ERA+, slightly better than average. He also has 207 strikeouts, 96 walks, and 190 hits allowed during that stretch.

While Flaherty probably will never again have a run like his otherworldly second half of the 2019 season, he can be an effective starter, one who can take the ball every 5-6 days and keep his team in the game. Basically, he's like so many other Cardinals pitchers, a mid-rotation starter who often needs his offense to pick him up.

How many teams could use a #3 starter like Flaherty? Plenty actually. With so many hurlers getting hurt or being ineffective, roughly average production has definite value. That's how someone like Steven Matz can get a $44M contract, but let's not dig into that disaster here. Instead, let's look for possible new homes for Flaherty.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Flaherty grew up in SoCal, and speculation long has had him returning to the Los Angeles area once he became a free agent. This deal would get him there just a few months earlier than expected.

The Dodgers have suffered plenty of starting pitcher injuries. Walker Buehler was known to be out at least most of the year, while Julio Urias, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin, Noah Syndergaard, and Ryan Pepiot all have missed various lengths of time due to injuries. The result has been lots of rookies - mostly Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone, Michael Grove, and Emmet Sheehan - taking turns in LA's rotation.

The results have been a mixed bag, with Miller and Sheehan being around average, Grove being bad, and Stone being horrendous, at least when looking just at ERA. Certainly, the small number of innings each has thrown are not enough to judge any of them as long-term assets.

Still, if you're the Dodgers, who are in the playoff hunt every single season, waiting for young pitchers to figure things out at the big league level isn't enough. Bringing in reinforcements from outside the organization will be a priority for LA as the trade deadline approaches. Flaherty certainly would help the Dodgers content for a National League West title. The question is, what would LA be willing to surrender to make a trade happen?

First, let's consider if there's a way to sweeten the appeal of a deal. With Gavin Lux lost to injury for the entire season, the Dodgers also could use help at shortstop, someone who would be a step up from Miguel Rojas. What do you know, the Cardinals just happen to have Paul DeJong available, and if St. Louis would be willing to eat some of his salary, they could improve the package they get in return for a combined Flaherty-DeJong duo.

The Cardinals desperately need starting pitching. Miller is not a realistic return, but one of Sheehan, Grove, Stone, or Pepiot should be options, and the Dodgers have so much depth in their farm system, plucking another 1-2 minor league lottery tickets should be feasible.

Some may look at these pitchers' major league performances to date and scoff at such a weak return for a rental of a mid-tier starter and a new starting shortstop. But keep in mind, even Greg Maddux had a 5.59 ERA in his first two seasons. Of course, the odds of any of these pitchers - or any pitcher anywhere - performing close to Maddux's level are essentially zero. The point is, a small number of innings early in a pitcher's career aren't enough to make a solid judgment.

Flaherty would feel right at home in Dodger Stadium, and DeJong would help on both sides of the ball. Getting a potential rotation piece for 2024 and beyond would be mandatory for the Cardinals in a deal like this.

Baltimore Orioles

Here's another team with relatively young and unproven starters that could benefit from the stabilizing presence of a veteran arm. With rookie Grayson Rodriguez scuffling to a 7.35 ERA through 10 starts and Cole Irvin posting a 5.50 mark, improvement in one starter role obviously would be beneficial. And with Kyle Gibson and Dean Kremer putting up ERAs in the 4.70-4.80 range so far, Flaherty could slot into the third starter position and bump both of them down a notch.

In addition to the potential performance improvement Flaherty could bring, his presence could allow the Orioles to give their young hurlers a break, either by shifting them to the bullpen to reduce their innings workload or to the minors to keep them on a starter's schedule but in a lower-stress environment where their pitch count and effort could be more closely controlled with less concern about the outcome of any particular game.

Focusing on the return a St. Louis-Baltimore trade would bring for the Cardinals, it's not so clear that pitching is what the O's have to offer. Their depth is primarily with middle infielders. As the Reds have shown this season, if you have a lot of guys who can play shortstop, you tend to have a lot of guys who can play a number of different positions.

The specific youngsters available from Baltimore in exchange for a two-month rental starting pitcher is vague, but acquiring such depth could make current Cardinals such as DeJong, Tommy Edman, Nolan Gorman, and Brendan Donovan available for other trade opportunities. It's the buy-and-sell mode John Mozeliak and other front office leaders around the majors have been leaning on more and more the last few seasons.

Los Angeles Angels

How would Flaherty help the Angels? Well, they tend to go with a six-man rotation to give superstar Shohei Ohtani a bit of extra rest. Their sixth starter lately has been Jaime Barria, who has produced a very nice 3.31 ERA over six starts and a dozen relief appearances totaling 54.1 IP. While Barria's performance has stabilized the back end of the rotation, the middle portion is looking somewhat soft.

Free-agent signee Tyler Anderson has posted a 5.25 ERA in his 15 starts and a bulk reliever appearance Friday following starter Griffin Canning, who is sporting a 4.62 ERA over 14 starts. Second starter Patrick Sandoval has a 4.41 ERA that is very similar to Flaherty. And then there's Ohtani's recent cracked fingernail and blister issues. Simply put, the Angels could use more rotation depth.

Flaherty would bring his No. 3 starter skills to Anaheim (it's not really Los Angeles, not even the same county), pushing a lesser pitcher further back in, or possibly out of, the rotation. This should have the domino effect of improving the bullpen.

It's debatable whether the Angels will make a playoff push with Mike Trout's recent broken hamate bone and injuries to other players. However, making the most of what is likely Ohtani's last season with the team seems worthwhile for owner Arte Moreno, who in January backed off from selling the team, presumably in the hopes of capturing a World Series championship.

Los Angeles has a trio of Double-A pitchers - Jack Kochanowicz, Coleman Crow, and Ky Bush - among their top 10 prospects, at least according to FanGraphs. While these names might not be instantly recognizable to most fans, perhaps a bulk approach of bringing in multiple arms and seeing which ones might work out could be the foundation of a trade return. With as many pitching issues as the Cardinals have, acquiring more potential solutions has a solid chance of working out.