4 players the Cardinals should have cut bait with before their trade value dipped

What do you do when you have a player who has seemed to hit their peak? Do you run with it and see if their success can be sustained? Or do you look to sell high on them and try to use their recent success to improve in a position that's in need of improvement?

We saw the Cardinals sell high on Richie Palacios in this past offseason, an outfielder who had a solid stretch at the end of the 2023 season. But it was a small sample size, and the Cardinals have a plethora of outfielders, giving him consistent playing time would've been difficult, so they sold high on him and were able to acquire Andrew Kittredge, who has become a reliable late-inning reliever for the Cards this year.

There is some players on the Cardinals who could've been sold high on as well, but unfortunately, that ship has sailed. Some down seasons in 2024, and an overall degression in their stats have prevented the Cardinals from potentially trading these players for any high-quality value in return.

If you ask me there is four players that come to mind where their value have dropped over the years, and the team's time to sell high on them has run out. The first one is a former top prospect.

Outfielder Dylan Carlson

The downfall of Dylan Carlson has been sad to witness. He was very impressive in his rookie season in 2021, but he has not been able to repeat that success. Remember back in 2022 when there were rumblings about the Cardinals trading for Juan Soto? Let's just say a package centered around Carlson would not get you Soto today.

Injuries have played a factor in Carlson's decline and it started right away this season in Spring Training. A collision in the outfield with Jordan Walker landed him on the injured list before the season started, and since he has come back he has not been able to contribute. Carlson is hitting .211 without a home run and 11 RBI in 54 games so far in 2024, and he is losing playing time due to the surprise success of Michael Siani. It feels like Carlson needs a change of scenery, but the return for him will be nowhere near what it could've been 2 seasons ago.

Pitcher Miles Mikolas

Before the 2023 season began, concerns were rising regarding the lack of starting pitchers the Cardinals had under contract for the following season. The Cardinals realized that and they chose to give Mikolas a contract extension for 3 seasons, over Jordan Montgomery. But since Mikolas got that contract extension he has not pitched well.

Mikolas missed the entire 2020 season with an injury and was limited to 9 starts in 2021, the 2022 season was the year he got back to his ways that we saw in his first season with St.Louis. He only won 12 of his 32 starts that year, but he was an All-Star for the second time, had a 3.29 ERA, and pitched a career-high 202.1 innings, you can see why the Cardinals wanted to keep him around.

As I mentioned at the beginning of this writing, hindsight is 20/20, if the Cardinals knew that 2023 was going to be as bad as it was, would the Cardinals have tried to move Mikolas to a contender looking for a rental arm that eats innings and throws strikes? It wasn't a very good year for Mikolas in 2023, as his ERA ballooned to 4.78, but he led the league in starts with 35 and threw 200 plus innings for the 3rd time in his career, I think the Cardinals could've gotten a similar return for Mikolas that they got for Montgomery and Jack Flaherty.

It may not be completely impossible for Mikolas to get back to form in the final year of his contract next year, but it's not looking promising as 2024 has been painful so far for Mikolas. He is currently 7-8 with a 5.13 ERA, his highest since 2014 when he was with the Rangers. He is still throwing strikes as he has the lowest BB/9 ratio in the league, but he has allowed over a hit an inning for the second straight year and he's on pace to give up more than 30 home runs this season. Plus he is not getting any older, as he turns 36 next month, what are the odds that he'll be effective again like he was two seasons ago?

First basemen Paul Goldschmidt

Paul Goldschmidt was the National League MVP in 2022. You wouldn’t trade a reigning MVP unless you were starting a rebuild, which the Cardinals obviously weren’t planning on doing. He’s in his late 30s and in the homestretch of his current contract, could the Cardinals have moved Goldschmidt with that MVP season still fresh in everyone’s minds? 

The Cardinals would’ve had to of gotten a significant return if they decided to trade Goldschmidt, an everyday first baseman who hits in the middle of the lineup and plays Gold Glove defense is something every team would love to have. I wrote during the offseason about the potential pros and cons of trading Goldschmidt, it’s a very interesting situation if you consider it, but there’s no evidence that the Cardinals were shopping Goldschmidt, but should they have? 

A slight decline from 2022 should’ve been expected but it’s been a little more than slight. Goldschmidt has improved from his dreadful start to the 2024 season, but his overall numbers show he may be having the worst season of his career. His .230 average and his below .300 on base are the lowest in his career, the strikeout numbers are up while his power numbers are down, which is very alarming.

The chance to trade Goldschmidt, who will turn 37 in September, is now gone, as he is expected to hit the free-agent market after this season. And with the Cardinals in the middle of competing for a playoff spot, they would have to be completely wowed to move Goldschmidt at this time, assuming any teams would be interested in him. You are running the risk of losing him in free agency for nothing if you can’t bring him back, so did the Cardinals miss an opportunity here? Could a player one season out of winning an MVP gotten them a front-line starter? All we know is we aren’t going to be able to ask that question again.