4 overreactions to the Cardinals' first week of Spring Training games

Hot takes abound during Spring Training. It's also the perfect time for fans to overreact to things that likely won't matter in the grand scheme of things. Take last year for example; the St. Louis Cardinals won the Grapefruit League in Spring Training, but they ended up finishing with one of the worst records in baseball last year during the regular season.

Spring Training isn't a time for teams to go full force and use results as the Gospel truth for a given player. Pitchers and hitters alike are refining their crafts before the marathon that is the MLB regular season. While there is always the semblance of competition for roster spots, the roster is largely set in stone come March barring injuries.

Therefore, whatever results or rumors we hear out of camp should be taken with a grain of salt. The regulars aren't consistently playing, and pitchers are still ramping up to their usual velocities. Even up to this point, players who won't even make the major league roster out of camp are leading the team in at-bats in spring.

Foremost of these overreactions would be the team's sub-.500 record at this point. Once again, do not take Spring Training as a sign of things to come. St. Louis won the Grapefruit League last year but definitely lost the season. This is a time to work out the kinks, not go full force.

Regardless of the microscopic data totals and the futility of analyzing spring stats, it's still fun to look at overreactions and analyze them. While it is probable that these out-of-proportion assumptions pan out as inaccurate, it is still possible that they could be signs of things to come.

Here are four overreactions to the first week of the Cardinals' spring training games.

1. This team isn't built for power.

Entering Thursday's games, the St. Louis Cardinals had yet to record a home run in 6 games played. In 54 innings of play, not one ball that has come off the bat of a Cardinal player has sailed over the fence. In 2023, the Cardinals averaged 1.29 home runs per game, good for 12th in the league. At this rate, St. Louis would need to clobber 9 home runs in their next game to match that average.

Players such as Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, Nolan Gorman, Paul Goldschmidt, and Jordan Walker all have the potential to hit 20 or more home runs, so a lack of the long ball in spring thus far shouldn't be much of a concern. This overreaction is unfounded and something we shouldn't be worried about as fans.

2. Ryan Helsley's velocity isn't there this year.

Ryan Helsley went down early in the season with a forearm strain. As a result, he only threw 36.2 innings in 2023. While they were effective, that total isn't where the Cardinals need their former All-Star to reach. As the team's presumptive closer, Helsley should be closer to 60 total innings on the season.

He was still effective in limited time. His 2.45 ERA and .176 batting average against were among the best for closers across baseball. St. Louis is hoping he can stay healthy and maintain that production or even have a season closer to his 2022 season, one in which he had an All-Star appearance.

He has pitched only 2 innings in spring going into Thursday's games, so the sample size is tiny. However, Helsley's velocity was noticeably down from 2023. His 4-seam fastball topped out at just 86.5 MPH in his first appearance, and his slider peaked at 82.6 MPH. His second outing featured much-improved velocity, but it still wasn't quite where it was last year.

Last year, Helsley's fastball averaged 99.7 MPH, and his slider averaged 89 MPH. His slider is sitting about 1 MPH below last year's average, and his fastball is almost 1.5 MPH slower. As Helsley continues to ramp up in spring, we will hopefully see a continued boost in velocity. His initial outing was cause for concern, but after his second showing, fans' worries should be assuaged mildly.

Given his injury last year, it is reasonable to be cautious regarding Helsley's velocity. It is something to keep an eye on throughout spring training and during the regular season. Helsley's velocity is his calling car, so it is imperative that his fastball touches 100+ MPH consistently. The former All-Star is a key cog to the team's success in 2024.

3. Paul Goldschmidt is washed.

Paul Goldschmidt followed up his 2022 MVP season with a bit of a dud in 2023. He had the lowest batting average of his career outside of his rookie season and in 2019, he had the lowest OPS+ of his career outside of those same years, and his defensive metrics according to Outs Above Average were middle-of-the-pack in 2023.

He is 36 now and heading toward the conclusion of his Hall of Fame-worthy career; it is reasonable to expect regression from the first baseman. The ever-reliable Goldy needs to have an offensive season closer to his career averages of .293/.388/.519 in order to maintain his Hall of Fame career trajectory.

Goldschmidt's spring showing hasn't alleviated any of those concerns. In only 7 at-bats, Goldy has just one hit, a single, and one walk. He has struck out 4 times as well. his .143/.250.143 slash line is abysmal. While 7 at bats is negligible in the grand scheme of things, a decent showing at spring training for the veteran first baseman would put to rest concerns of many fans.

Goldschmidt isn't a player who starts off cold historically. For his career in spring training, he has a .300 average with 23 home runs in 299 games played. While his first and second-half splits for his career are close, he performs better in April through June rather than July through September.

A cold start to Paul Goldschmidt's 2024 campaign doesn't bode well for his personal financial gains or for the team's success. Part of the Cardinals' prowess in 2024 hinges on their All-Star first baseman returning to form next year. Paul Goldschmidt's spring showing hasn't done anything to appease fans, albeit in fewer than 10 at-bats.