4 free agent relievers to avoid based on reporting for the St. Louis Cardinals

As the 2023-2024 MLB offseason progresses, reports have given St. Louis Cardinals' fans tidbits of information about the team's plans for their bullpen in 2024. Using our inductive reasoning skills, we can begin to get an idea of the types of players John Mozeliak wants to target to improve one of the weakest aspects of the team last year.

On October 29th, John Mozeliak made a guest appearance on Tom Ackerman's Radio show on AM 1120. Give it a listen here. In their discussions, Mozeliak touched on a variety of topics including former players in the World Series, depth at key positions, and identifying qualities in free agents this offseason. One particularly interesting topic of discussion was the bullpen. Mozeliak stated that he wanted to target durability and consistency; while the roster has had a lot of firepower (Helsley, Hicks) recently, Mozeliak said that he wants to target pitchers who have a track record of success and health.

Katie Woo also published an article (subscription required) in which she discussed team goals in regard to pitching. Three starters are still on the table, but she got a little more specific with the bullpen discussions; Woo stated that the Cardinals intend to add two bullpen guys, particularly high-leverage relievers to supplement the work of Ryan Helsley and Giovanny Gallegos. Andre Pallante could be an additional right-handed pitcher out of the 'pen to provide depth, and JoJo Romero showed flashes of success in limited appearances from the left side, but the team could surely use more help in the back end of the bullpen, particularly with a left-handed pitcher.

I recently discussed relievers the Cardinals should target based on team weaknesses last year, and many of those pitchers are high-leverage arms with a track record of success and health, but the team must be wary of certain big-name pitchers who struggled this past year in one way or another. I'll call this the "Miller-Holland Conundrum". The Cardinals have signed top-end relievers before only for them to face injuries, inconsistency, and have Father Time get the best of them. Andrew Miller and Greg Holland still sting when reflecting on their signings in the past half-decade.

With past top-end signings in mind, here are four relievers the Cardinals should avoid in free agency.

Andrew Chafin

Andrew Chafin finished the 2023 season with the Milwaukee Brewers. The 33-year-old lefty has had a very successful career. He sports a 3.40 ERA, 1.250 WHIP, 3.26 WHIP, and a 9.7 K's/9 innings rate. He doesn't have a lot of save experience (19 in 539 relief appearances), but he has pitched in high-leverage innings for most of his career.

Chafin is left-handed, something the Cardinals desire for the 2024 bullpen, and has pitched a large chunk of his innings in high-leverage situations. For his career, Chafin has pitched in 265 games in these types of situations, and he has allowed a slash line of .237/.347/.354 to batters. He has decent strikeout numbers, but his walks ramp up drastically during the most intense moments of a game. He has just a 1.77 strikeout-to-walk ratio during high-leverage situations.

Perhaps the most concerning part about signing Chafin would be his work in high-leverage innings just this past season. In 86 plate appearances, Chafin allowed batters to have an OPS of .863. His strikeout-to-walk ratio plummeted to 1.54. He is also getting a bit older, as he will turn 34 in June next year. A two or three-year contract would commit the Cardinals to his mid-thirties, a time when they have seen past big-name free agents begin to fall.

While Chafin may be a lefty with a track record of success, particularly later in the game, his numbers last year show a clear regression from what he typically does. Chafin would be a worrisome signing this offseason.

Will Smith

Chapman and Chafin are two of the top left-handed pitchers on the free-agent market this offseason. Will Smith also belongs at the top of that list. He fits the bill as a signing for the Cardinals, as he is left-handed, has pitched in high-leverage innings many times in his career, and has proven himself to be durable, pitching in 55+ innings in 6 of his 11 seasons. Smith has a career 3.67 ERA, 1.224 WHIP, 3.60 FIP, and has struck out more than 10 batters per nine innings. Will Smith is currently pitching in the World Series for the Texas Rangers.

This past year, Smith's K% and BB% were near the middle of the league, and his slider was his best pitch by far. Smith doesn't have much velocity behind his pitches, but they are deceptive and have strong horizontal movement. Smith pitched in multiple high-leverage situations with an average leverage index of 1.73. A lefty who has pitched in high-leverage situations is just what the Cardinals are looking for, but Smith, too, has some concerns in his game from this past season.

Smith had an 81.5% save percentage (22 of 27 opportunities), and that places him 11th in the American League. His ERA this past year of 4.40 was the highest since 2020 and is the second highest for his entire career, he had the lowest strikeout percentage (24.3%) of his entire career, and he allowed the highest exit velocity (116.1 MPH) of his career this year. Players seem to be hitting his curveball well and lifting balls in the air more as both line drives and fly balls.

Smith's postseason performances have been uninspiring as well; he has struck out 4 batters, walked 3, and allowed 4 runs in just 3.1 innings pitched. Mike Maddux and Bruce Bochy appear to have lost a little bit of faith in their once late-game pitcher.

Will Smith has a strong track record, which is what the front office is identifying as a key quality in the relievers they may sign this offseason; however, his 2023 season and his age should give the front office pause as they consider him for late innings.

Craig Kimbrel

Craig Kimbrel's pitching stance is memorable. His bent-over posture, his crooked arm, and his peering face make hitters a little more nervous as they stand in the box. Kimbrel first came onto the scene in 2010 for the Atlanta Braves. He has spent time in Atlanta, San Diego, Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, and most recently in Philadelphia.

Kimbrel was still relatively dominant as a late-inning reliever for the Phillies this past year. He had 23 saves in 28 opportunities, he had a 3.26 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 1.043 WHIP, and he struck out over 12 batters per nine innings. He also led the Phillies' pitching corps with a 1.81 average leverage index showing Rob Thompson's belief in his closer. Kimbrel is right-handed, so he would have to find some innings around the incumbent right-handed pitchers for the Cardinals.

Where Kimbrel struggled the most would be controlling walks and hard hits. Kimbrel's barrel percentage was in the 13th percentile, his hard-hit percentage was in the 4th percentile, and his walk rate was in the 25th percentile. He is a two-pitch pitcher with a 4-seam fastball and curveball. His fastball has lost some ticks in velocity these past few years, and his curveball is getting hit at a career-high rate. Hitters have been able to catch up to his fastball and have been able to hit it very hard for an average exit velocity of 91.4 MPH.

Kimbrel will turn 36 next May, and he appears to be losing some touch on his pitches. At the right price, Kimbrel would be a fine addition to the bullpen; however, the front office seems intent on signing a left-handed pitcher to fill in the gaps late in games. His underlying metrics are concerning, and hitters seemed to have figured him out this past postseason.