4 free agent relievers to avoid based on reporting for the St. Louis Cardinals

Aroldis Chapman

Aroldis Chapman is one of the best closers of all time. From 2012 until 2021, Chapman consistently was near the top of the league in saves. His fastballs have always been among the best in terms of sheer velocity, and he is still able to reach 100 MPH with ease. Chapman's best years came in Cincinnati and New York with the Yankees.

The left-handed pitcher has had most of his appearances (1,115 at-bats) in high-leverage situations. In his career, he has allowed a slash line of .167/.283/.266 and has struck out over 45% of batters he's faced in those situations. It would appear that Chapman, as a lefty who can pitch in high-leverage innings, would be a reliever the Cardinals should sign this offseason; however, there are some factors that go against that belief.

Chapman is getting old. He will spend the entire 2024 season at 36 years old. The Cardinals signed Andrew Miller in his age-34 season, and he started showing signs of age quickly; they signed Greg Holland in his age-32 season, and that experiment failed; they also signed Brett Cecil in his age-30 season, and despite his strong 2017 season, he fell off heavily in 2018. Chapman will be 36 next year, and he has been a flamethrower for his career. There is sure to be soreness, injury possibilities, and fatigue in the former closer.

Another concerning factor about Chapman would be his postseason performance this year. In 7.1 innings, he has a 2.45 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, both respectable numbers. His strikeout numbers, however, have dropped compared to his regular season totals. He has only five strikeouts to four walks this postseason. He is also allowing the most hits in the postseason for his career. We could already be seeing fatigue set in for the All-Star closer.

While Chapman is a lefty who has shown an ability to pitch well in high-leverage innings and has been durable, there are some initial cracks showing in his game. Chapman would be a fine addition to the bullpen, but he is getting old, and he has become more erratic as the season and postseason have progressed.

Will Smith

Chapman and Chafin are two of the top left-handed pitchers on the free-agent market this offseason. Will Smith also belongs at the top of that list. He fits the bill as a signing for the Cardinals, as he is left-handed, has pitched in high-leverage innings many times in his career, and has proven himself to be durable, pitching in 55+ innings in 6 of his 11 seasons. Smith has a career 3.67 ERA, 1.224 WHIP, 3.60 FIP, and has struck out more than 10 batters per nine innings. Will Smith is currently pitching in the World Series for the Texas Rangers.

This past year, Smith's K% and BB% were near the middle of the league, and his slider was his best pitch by far. Smith doesn't have much velocity behind his pitches, but they are deceptive and have strong horizontal movement. Smith pitched in multiple high-leverage situations with an average leverage index of 1.73. A lefty who has pitched in high-leverage situations is just what the Cardinals are looking for, but Smith, too, has some concerns in his game from this past season.

Smith had an 81.5% save percentage (22 of 27 opportunities), and that places him 11th in the American League. His ERA this past year of 4.40 was the highest since 2020 and is the second highest for his entire career, he had the lowest strikeout percentage (24.3%) of his entire career, and he allowed the highest exit velocity (116.1 MPH) of his career this year. Players seem to be hitting his curveball well and lifting balls in the air more as both line drives and fly balls.

Smith's postseason performances have been uninspiring as well; he has struck out 4 batters, walked 3, and allowed 4 runs in just 3.1 innings pitched. Mike Maddux and Bruce Bochy appear to have lost a little bit of faith in their once late-game pitcher.

Will Smith has a strong track record, which is what the front office is identifying as a key quality in the relievers they may sign this offseason; however, his 2023 season and his age should give the front office pause as they consider him for late innings.

Craig Kimbrel

Craig Kimbrel's pitching stance is memorable. His bent-over posture, his crooked arm, and his peering face make hitters a little more nervous as they stand in the box. Kimbrel first came onto the scene in 2010 for the Atlanta Braves. He has spent time in Atlanta, San Diego, Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, and most recently in Philadelphia.

Kimbrel was still relatively dominant as a late-inning reliever for the Phillies this past year. He had 23 saves in 28 opportunities, he had a 3.26 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 1.043 WHIP, and he struck out over 12 batters per nine innings. He also led the Phillies' pitching corps with a 1.81 average leverage index showing Rob Thompson's belief in his closer. Kimbrel is right-handed, so he would have to find some innings around the incumbent right-handed pitchers for the Cardinals.

Where Kimbrel struggled the most would be controlling walks and hard hits. Kimbrel's barrel percentage was in the 13th percentile, his hard-hit percentage was in the 4th percentile, and his walk rate was in the 25th percentile. He is a two-pitch pitcher with a 4-seam fastball and curveball. His fastball has lost some ticks in velocity these past few years, and his curveball is getting hit at a career-high rate. Hitters have been able to catch up to his fastball and have been able to hit it very hard for an average exit velocity of 91.4 MPH.

Kimbrel will turn 36 next May, and he appears to be losing some touch on his pitches. At the right price, Kimbrel would be a fine addition to the bullpen; however, the front office seems intent on signing a left-handed pitcher to fill in the gaps late in games. His underlying metrics are concerning, and hitters seemed to have figured him out this past postseason.