4 Cardinals who should be non-tendered and 2 who shouldn't be

The St. Louis Cardinals have a lot to do this offseason in order to rebuild this pitching staff. It sounds like they are set on bringing in three starting pitchers to add to their rotation as well as two "high-leverage" bullpen arms. Can they pull it off? Yes! It's totally feasible that they rebuild this pitching staff during the winter. It remains to be seen how well they do so.

One of the ways they can make that path easier is by non-tendering some of their arbitration candidates. There are a number of Cardinals on the 40-man roster who are set to get pay raises this offseason, and the Cardinals can get millions of dollars in salary relief by deciding to non-tender some of those players instead of retaining their rights.

The Cardinals already non-tendered Jacob Barnes before the end of the World Series, but there are still six other names who could be up for debate within the Cardinals front office. Two of them, for different reasons, I believe should be tendered in the coming days in order to retain future value, but there are four other names who the Cardinals need to just cut bait with this offseason, for one reason or another.

Here are four players the Cardinals should non-tender, and two they need to offer contracts to.

Tender a contract to Tyler O'Neill

Before you freak out, I think it's time for the Cardinals to trade Tyler O'Neill this offseason, but non-tendering him to me feels like a mistake.

According to MLB Trade Rumors' arbitration projections (which is where I'll be getting all of my projections from for this story), O'Neill is set to receive around $5.5 million in arbitration this offseason. It's not a crazy number by any means, but with O'Neill's inability to stay on the field and the decline in performance at the plate, it feels like the Cardinals would be better off saving the $5.5 million and rolling with their other outfield options.

Believe it or not, but that $5.5 million projection for O'Neill is actually about $1 million short of what his performance in 2023 was worth, according to the "dollars" stat by FanGraphs that converts WAR into a dollar scale to estimate how much a player is worth in free agency. Even though he appeared in just 72 games in 2023 and was not the same player, he was still worth $6.5 million, and I'd have to imagine O'Neill is at least a bit better in 2024. 2022 was another down season for O'Neill, and he was still worth $9.7 million.

When O'Neill is on the field, his defense and base-running alone make him a valuable player, even when his bat is slightly below league average. Bake in the fact that he has shown he can be an elite hitter when he's right, and you just cannot let a guy go like that for free. That's just asking for another Adolis Garcia type of situation.

I do understand that it's probably time to move on though, but why not use him as a part of the Cardinals solution for finding pitching help this offseason? I know it's hard to believe for some people that O'Neill has value, but he does. He could easily be part of a package that helps the Cardinals snag a Shane Bieber or Tyler Glasnow type, or even in a swap for a reliever to bolster their bullpen. The Cardinals are not going to find the same quality of starter or reliever on the free agent market for just $5.5 million, so might as well flip O'Neil for that value.

Honestly, I'm not even against them holding onto him for 2024 if the right deal is not there. $5.5 million should not be the difference between them getting an impact starter or coming up short. Make the most of the value O'Neill has left.

The Cardinals should tender a contract to Dylan Carlson

This one should be obvious, but I've seen people suggest that Dylan Carlson is a non-tender candidate, and that would be beyond foolish to do.

The last 14 months of baseball have not been kind to Carlson's standing within the game of baseball. He's battled injuries a ton during that stretch, and even when he's been on the field, he's looked like a far cry from the top-20 prospect in baseball he once was. Carlson's defense is still promising, but his struggles against right-handed pitching at the plate continue to plague him. Carlson normally mashes left-handed pitching, but he regressed in that area, going from a guy with a 140 wRC+ against southpaws the last two seasons down to 118.

On the season, Carlson slashed .219/.318/.333 with 5 HR and 27 RBI in just 76 games played and had season-ending ankle surgery last month. He should be good to go by Spring Training, but there's just a lot working against Carlson at the moment.

The dollars stat from FanGraphs isn't everything, but like O'Neill, Carlson's value even in 2023 justifies the contract he's set to receive this offseason. Carlson is set to make just $1.8 million in 2024, and according to FanGraphs, he was worth $1.3 million in 2023. Sure, that's a tick less than his $1.8 million projected salary for 2024, but he did post seasons worth $20.3 million and $19.8 million in 2021 and 2022 respectively.

There is still too much talent with Carlson to just let him go for free this offseason. He could be a trade candidate this offseason, but I really like the idea of him coming back again as the fourth outfielder for St. Louis, especially since they lack additional center field options outside of Tommy Edman and Lars Nootbaar until Victor Scott II is ready. Carlson is still a valuable defender who can rake against left-handed pitching, and the upside of becoming a quality everyday outfielder is still there. At just $1.8 million, you can't cut him to save that little when his current and potential value is far more.

I would not feel comfortable with the Cardinals banking on him as a starting outfielder at the moment, but he's more than capable of being a fourth outfielder with upside baked in as well. He very well could be traded this offseason or work his way back into the Cardinals lineup during the season, but for now, he belongs as a bench option for St. Louis in 2024.

The Cardinals should non-tender Andrew Knizner and John King

These are the two names I think the Cardinals are going to have the hardest time deciding what to do with, as they both played interesting roles for St. Louis in 2023, but both also give stronger reasons to be moved on from.

Let's start with Andrew Knizner, who oddly enough, was outperforming what most of us thought he would do for a large chunk of the 2023 season.

Well, Knizner had a pretty bad finish to the 2023 season, regressing to a 92 wRC+ and a -0.1 fWAR on the season. Knizner is highly respected within the Cardinals' clubhouse, and the pitching staff really likes him, but he's not worth blocking Ivan Herrera next season.

Knizner is a fine backup catcher, but Herrera is ready to provide starting catcher-type production for the Cardinals as their primary backup in 2024. In his 13 games with the Cardinals in 2023, Herrera slashed .297/,409/.351 with a 122 wRC+ and was worth 0.5 fWAR in that short time span. While we don't need to expect him to be hitting 22% above league average next year, he did mash with Memphis this year. In 83 games in Triple-A, Herrera batted .297/.451/.500 with 10 HR and 60 RBI to the tune of a .951 OPS.

Herrera has proven everything he can at the minor league levels and is now ready for significant playing time in St. Louis in 2024. Knizner is set to make $2 million in 2024, and I think the Cardinals can get some savings by non-tendering him. He could be someone worth trading, but I'm not sure how much value they would get in return.

John King, on the surface, pitched really well after coming over in the Jordan Montgomery-Chris Stratton deal at the trade deadline. Thomas Saggese and Tekoah Roby were the major pieces of that deal, but King was a nice throw-in for St. Louis to take a flyer on. A left-handed reliever who had struggled thus far in his career, King posted a 1.45 ERA in 18.2 innings for the Cardinals down the stretch.

Looking under the hood though, King provides little upside and was outperforming his underlying numbers while in St. Louis. He had a 3.85 FIP after the deadline (which was actually higher than his FIP in Texas), and still only struck out 4.8 batters per nine innings. They can keep him around if they want to and I wouldn't mind it, but if they do plan on bringing in two high-leverage relievers, clearing up the space makes sense.