4 Cardinals who should be non-tendered and 2 who shouldn't be

The Cardinals should non-tender Dakota Hudson and Jake Woodford

On top of not having enough quality arms in their projected Opening Day rotation for 2023, Dakota Hudson and Jake Woodford both proved that the Cardinals also did not have quality depth options internally either.

Hudson was infamously part of that "We have six starting pitchers" comment from John Mozeliak last offseason, but quickly pitched his way out of that conversation. He spent most of 2024 struggling in Triple-A with Memphis, and in his 18 games with St. Louis (12 starts), he posted a 4.98 ERA and 5.06 FIP in 81.1 innings of work.

If Hudson was a pre-arbitration player, you'd probably look to keep him around as a depth option and see if he can figure things out over the winter. But with a projected salary of $3.7 million for 2024, there's just no way to justify him sticking around. He'll have no problem finding a contract with another Major League club, whether it's guaranteed or a minor league deal, but that just cannot happen in St. Louis.

The same thing can be said for Jake Woodford. His number is more manageable, at just $1.1 million for 2024, but he, much like Hudson, struggled to prove he belonged during his opportunites with St. Louis this past season. In 47.2 innings, Woodford had a 6.23 ERA and 6.61 FIP, not exactly a resume builder by any means. If the Cardinals were desperate for depth, maybe they consider it, but they are actually in a better position when it comes to immediate pitching depth than they were at the beginning of 2023.

Zack Thompson, Matthew Liberatore, and Drew Rom are all immediate options who have experinece starting games at the Major League level and are much cheaper than Hudson and Woodford. They also have guys like Gordon Graceffo, Michael McGreevy, Adam Kloffenstein, and Sem Robberse knocking on the door in Triple-A, so it's time to move on from arms like Woodford and Hudson who just are not taking advantage of their opportunities in St. Louis.

Look for Zack Thompson to be the first man up in 2024 if an injury happens to the rotation, and he could even push for a rotation spot over Steven Matz in Spring Training. He looked promising as a starter during his nine opportunities last year, and given an offseason of work, he may be able to push harder for a spot than we are currently anticipating.

The Cardinals should tender a contract to Dylan Carlson

This one should be obvious, but I've seen people suggest that Dylan Carlson is a non-tender candidate, and that would be beyond foolish to do.

The last 14 months of baseball have not been kind to Carlson's standing within the game of baseball. He's battled injuries a ton during that stretch, and even when he's been on the field, he's looked like a far cry from the top-20 prospect in baseball he once was. Carlson's defense is still promising, but his struggles against right-handed pitching at the plate continue to plague him. Carlson normally mashes left-handed pitching, but he regressed in that area, going from a guy with a 140 wRC+ against southpaws the last two seasons down to 118.

On the season, Carlson slashed .219/.318/.333 with 5 HR and 27 RBI in just 76 games played and had season-ending ankle surgery last month. He should be good to go by Spring Training, but there's just a lot working against Carlson at the moment.

The dollars stat from FanGraphs isn't everything, but like O'Neill, Carlson's value even in 2023 justifies the contract he's set to receive this offseason. Carlson is set to make just $1.8 million in 2024, and according to FanGraphs, he was worth $1.3 million in 2023. Sure, that's a tick less than his $1.8 million projected salary for 2024, but he did post seasons worth $20.3 million and $19.8 million in 2021 and 2022 respectively.

There is still too much talent with Carlson to just let him go for free this offseason. He could be a trade candidate this offseason, but I really like the idea of him coming back again as the fourth outfielder for St. Louis, especially since they lack additional center field options outside of Tommy Edman and Lars Nootbaar until Victor Scott II is ready. Carlson is still a valuable defender who can rake against left-handed pitching, and the upside of becoming a quality everyday outfielder is still there. At just $1.8 million, you can't cut him to save that little when his current and potential value is far more.

I would not feel comfortable with the Cardinals banking on him as a starting outfielder at the moment, but he's more than capable of being a fourth outfielder with upside baked in as well. He very well could be traded this offseason or work his way back into the Cardinals lineup during the season, but for now, he belongs as a bench option for St. Louis in 2024.

The Cardinals should non-tender Andrew Knizner and John King

These are the two names I think the Cardinals are going to have the hardest time deciding what to do with, as they both played interesting roles for St. Louis in 2023, but both also give stronger reasons to be moved on from.

Let's start with Andrew Knizner, who oddly enough, was outperforming what most of us thought he would do for a large chunk of the 2023 season.

Well, Knizner had a pretty bad finish to the 2023 season, regressing to a 92 wRC+ and a -0.1 fWAR on the season. Knizner is highly respected within the Cardinals' clubhouse, and the pitching staff really likes him, but he's not worth blocking Ivan Herrera next season.

Knizner is a fine backup catcher, but Herrera is ready to provide starting catcher-type production for the Cardinals as their primary backup in 2024. In his 13 games with the Cardinals in 2023, Herrera slashed .297/,409/.351 with a 122 wRC+ and was worth 0.5 fWAR in that short time span. While we don't need to expect him to be hitting 22% above league average next year, he did mash with Memphis this year. In 83 games in Triple-A, Herrera batted .297/.451/.500 with 10 HR and 60 RBI to the tune of a .951 OPS.

Herrera has proven everything he can at the minor league levels and is now ready for significant playing time in St. Louis in 2024. Knizner is set to make $2 million in 2024, and I think the Cardinals can get some savings by non-tendering him. He could be someone worth trading, but I'm not sure how much value they would get in return.

John King, on the surface, pitched really well after coming over in the Jordan Montgomery-Chris Stratton deal at the trade deadline. Thomas Saggese and Tekoah Roby were the major pieces of that deal, but King was a nice throw-in for St. Louis to take a flyer on. A left-handed reliever who had struggled thus far in his career, King posted a 1.45 ERA in 18.2 innings for the Cardinals down the stretch.

Looking under the hood though, King provides little upside and was outperforming his underlying numbers while in St. Louis. He had a 3.85 FIP after the deadline (which was actually higher than his FIP in Texas), and still only struck out 4.8 batters per nine innings. They can keep him around if they want to and I wouldn't mind it, but if they do plan on bringing in two high-leverage relievers, clearing up the space makes sense.