4 Cardinals trade rumors we hope come true, 3 we hope don't happen

With just under a week to go until the MLB trade deadline, rumors are swirling around the St. Louis Cardinals. While the Cardinals are expected to make some big swings for starting pitching and bullpen help, it's still very unclear which direction they will go as many teams are still undecided whether or not they will buy or sell. The Cardinals are firmly buyers at this deadline, but with the market unclear so far, it's not certain what they will be able to get. Here are four rumors we hope come true and three that we hope don't happen.

We hope the Cardinals trade for Max Scherzer

Max Scherzer shot down some of the trade buzz on Foul Territory, but if the World Series champion Texas Rangers choose to sell, it's possible Scherzer will go to a contender he is comfortable with. The hometown St. Louis kid has shown serious interest in coming to the Cardinals in the past, and assuming he no longer holds a grudge against the organization for passing on him in free agency, Scherzer would be a great fit to come home.

The Athletic (subscription required) speculated on Scherzer being a potential trade target for St. Louis, and it makes perfect sense as they look to bolster the front of their rotation. With the emergence of Andre Pallante, the Cardinals don't necessarily need another starting pitcher to be competitive in the playoffs, but adding a frontline pitcher like Scherzer would greatly increase their odds of making a deep run. Scherzer won a World Series last year with the Rangers and again in 2019 with the Nationals, so he's no stranger to the playoffs. While injury concerns and underperformance mean he won't be the Cy Young-caliber ace of years past, he definitely still has more in the tank for a playoff run with his hometown team.

Given all these concerns and his hefty contract, Scherzer shouldn't be too expensive for the Cardinals to acquire either. In the final year of his contract, Scherzer is strictly a rental piece, who won't demand nearly as big a package as some of the other higher-end starters on the market. It could be the perfect low-risk, high-reward move for St. Louis.

We hope the Cardinals don't trade for Tyler Anderson

While Tyler Anderson has been great to start the 2024 season, the lone Angels All-Star representative is due for some major regression after the deadline. The soft-tossing lefty certainly fits the mold of Cardinals' deadline moves in the past, but with an abundance of other options, the Cardinals should look away. Anderson has accrued 4.3 bWAR, recording a 2.91 ERA through his first 20 starts, but the Cardinals should let another contender bite on him rather than paying a steep price for his services.

The red flags are all there. Anderson's FIP and xERA are both around 1.5 points higher than his actual ERA, and it's not like he's a guy who consistently overperformed his expected metrics. The first year of his deal with the Angels was an absolute disaster. His fly-ball rate is extremely high, his fastball doesn't even touch 90 mph, and he doesn't miss barrels. His ceiling as a frontline starter is extremely limited, and he definitely won't be worth Anaheim's asking price.

We hope the Cardinals trade for Zach Eflin

It's been said time and time again, don't make trades with the Tampa Bay Rays, but this time it might be different. Sure, the Cardinals should probably be careful which players they give up, but Zach Eflin is a proven talent. Just like Tyler Glasnow, who's been fantastic for the Dodgers to start the year, the Rays won't fleece anyone with Eflin's underperformance. He'll be just fine, as long as he doesn't get hurt.

Eflin is owed $18 million next year, so he's as good as gone. The Rays will just want to maximize the value they get from him, as they probably have a few starters good enough to replace him waiting in the Minor Leagues. With a 4.14 ERA this season, he'll be more than serviceable to fill out the Cardinals' rotation, and he won't be too expensive either.

Unlike Tyler Anderson, Eflin's metrics indicate that he's actually gotten a bit unlucky this season, and may be due for some improvement. He pitched like a frontline starter last season and definitely has the ceiling to lead the Cardinals' rotation alongside Sonny Gray.

We hope the Cardinals don't stand pat at the deadline

When speaking to Cardinals bloggers and podcasters in June, John Mozeliak spoke quite aggressively on the Cardinals' needs and where they were hoping to add at the trade deadline. He wanted another starter, a bullpen arm, and a right-handed bat that can play center field. However, it looked like he was walking back on some of these comments, saying the Cardinals wouldn't be inclined to overpay on the trade market at the deadline.

Of course, overpaying for anything is bad and the Cardinals should avoid doing so at all costs, but it did seem less certain that they would make all the moves Mozeliak seemingly promised earlier in the season. With the trade market as uncertain as it has been, and the National League Wildcard standings a complete mess, it's possible many more teams will hold their assets or buy at the deadline rather than sell. It could create for a massive seller's market that St. Louis took advantage of last year, but obviously won't this year as they try to contend for a playoff spot.

While the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds have already made their intentions clear as sellers barring a winning streak right before the deadline, neither of those teams will be good trade partners for the division-rival Cardinals. Other fringy contenders may choose to hold their players for a Diamondbacks-esque run with the expanded playoffs introduced last season.

With a shortage of available players, the seller's market may indeed force the Cardinals to overpay if they want anything of quality at the deadline, forcing them to reconsider their decision to aggressively buy. With the current Wildcard standings, the Cardinals are by no means guaranteed a playoff spot, so will they give up significant prospect capital for the players they want? Maybe not. However, with the top of the National League also extremely weak, the Cardinals will need to find shrewd ways to improve their club with a real chance at contending for the NL pennant.

We hope the Cardinals don't acquire a big bat

Acquiring a big bat at the trade deadline such as Brent Rooker or Luis Robert Jr. would go counter to what the Cardinals truly need at the deadline. While a platoon bat for center field may be necessary as insurance for Tommy Edman, who has still yet to play a game this year, the Cardinals don't really have room to add another bat to their lineup. They certainly could use one, but their two weakest positions other than center field are first base and third base, and they can't exactly move on from the future Hall of Famers they have at those spots.

Of course, fans have speculated that the Cardinals may be better off without Paul Goldschmidt at first base, opening either right field or first for a right-handed slugger, but that's entirely unrealistic. The high-end options available in center field are also way out of the Cardinals' price range. For now, it's probably just Luis Robert Jr. who will demand a prospect package the Cardinals simply don't have. Then, we get into crazy speculation of a Mike Trout trade, which just won't happen at this point.

While fans may want the additions of Brent Rooker, Pete Alonso, or Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the Cardinals simply don't have any space for them with the emergence of Alec Burleson and great position player depth throughout the roster. Unfortunately, they'll more than likely be banking on the resurgence of Goldschmidt or Arenado as their only meaningful offensive upgrades at the deadline. It's not going to be pretty, but it's all the Cardinals can do without completely depleting the farm.

The Cardinals could definitely use another bat, and will probably get one to platoon with Michael Siani, but asking for anything more than that is unfortunately unrealistic and unwise. The Cardinals can certainly seek lineup upgrades once Goldschmidt walks in the offseason, but for now, they can't afford to part with a franchise cornerstone in the middle of a contending season, and there's no other spot for an impact bat.

We hope the Cardinals trade Dylan Carlson

Dylan Carlson has been just abysmal for the Cardinals this year. And, as other outfielders spurned from the organization like Tyler O'Neill, we wouldn't be surprised at all if the once highly touted prospect became an All-Star-caliber player for a different organization. But it's finally time. Carlson has no real spot on the roster, with the emergence of defensive wizard Michael Siani, and his overall futility at the plate.

At this point, Carlson will probably only net the Cardinals a package with an intriguing reliever and a lottery ticket prospect, similar to the one they received for O'Neill from the Red Sox in the offseason. That's totally fine, however, as they'll need to clear a roster spot for Tommy Edman's eventual return to the lineup, and Carlson needs a change of scenery quickly before he becomes a prime DFA candidate.

We hate to see Dylan Carlson's career in St. Louis end so unceremoniously, as the once top-30 prospect was once one of the most exciting young outfielders in all of baseball. However, they've once again let a talented young outfielder stay far too long, seeing his value dwindle to basically nothing. Letting Carlson continue to rot on the bench when he could earn a starting spot on a non-contending team and recouping some of the value he has left would be a tremendous mistake.

After seeing O'Neill get away and thrive in Boston, Mozeliak may be a bit gun-shy in trading another talented player, but with Carlson, it's more than time to move on. Come back to this when Carlson wins ALCS MVP for the Tigers next year. It wouldn't surprise me at all, and at this point, I'd be totally fine with it.