4 Cardinals pitchers who were disappointments in 2023

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With the St. Louis Cardinals eliminated from playoff contention, it would be laughable to call the 2023 season anything less than a massive disappointment. Fans have pointed fingers at all sorts of potential culprits: the front office, the manager, the coaches, and the players. (And Fredbird. We can’t forget Fredbird.) There are almost certainly multiple factors at work that have led this season to be one of the worst in the franchise’s storied history, but the most obvious sign has been the drastic decline in the team’s pitching performance.

Before the season, The Athletic had a piece wondering if the Cardinals’ pitch-to-contact approach would hurt them in the era of the banned shift, and that article has proven to be prescient. The team’s ERA has risen over a full run from 2022, from 3.79 to 5.05 as of Sept. 25. While some pitchers have remained consistent, a few have dropped off noticeably from last season.

The Cardinals have also massively declined in the field. In 2022, the team finished with 48 defensive runs saved. This season, the Cardinals are among the worst in the league, with negative 42 defensive runs saved. Nolan Arenado had a sluggish start to the season at third base; he has a negative 0.5 Ulitmate Zone Rating this season compared with 13.0 last year. A late-season defensive revelation has been Tommy Edman in center field, where he holds a higher UZR than at his previously regular position of shortstop.

Despite the defensive woes, the Cardinals' suffering this season primarily comes from the mound. These four pitchers have not been able to replicate their previous seasons.

Miles Mikolas

The Cardinals put their faith in Miles Mikolas by signing him to a three-year, $55.75 million contract in March to give them a piece for their rotation through 2025, but his first season under the new contract has been underwhelming. The pitch-to-contact hurler has suffered enormously from the lack of a shift, amassing a BABIP of .310, 60 points higher than last year's mark.

The issues for Mikolas run deeper than just the rule changes. His opponents' average exit velocity spiked from 87.8 mph to 90.5 mph, and his ground-ball percentage dwindled from 45.9% to 39.5%. His hard-hit rate also skyrocketed from 36% to 42.8%. As for the counting stats, Mikolas has a 4.95 ERA, his worst as a Cardinal, and a 7-13 record.

The Cardinals have likely seen the best of the 35-year-old Mikolas, but he will need to rebound somewhat in the next two seasons to keep his new contract from being a disaster. No longer a solid No. 3 starter, Mikolas will ideally be the team's No. 5 after some offseason pitching acquisitions.

Giovanny Gallegos

The trade of Luke Voit to the New York Yankees for Giovanny Gallegos and Chasen Shreve was originally judged as a steal for the Yankees as Voit went on to lead the league in home runs in 2020, but later reflections have shown the Cardinals to have gotten the better end of the deal, as Gallegos was the Cardinals' most consistent reliever from 2019 to 2022.

However, Gallegos has been far more hittable this season, with an ERA of 4.42, his highest since the 20.1 innings he pitched in his rookie year with the New York Yankees in 2017. Gallegos is in the bottom 5% of the league in hard-hit percentage at 46.2%, and he is in the 16th percentile in barrel percentage.

There is reason to believe Gallegos can bounce back in 2024, as his chase and whiff rates are still elite, and his walk rate has improved this season to an elite 5.2% of batters faced. He should return to his familiar role as a setup man next season, hopefully to better results.

Andre Pallante

Andre Pallante has always gotten by on his reverse splits, as a right-handed pitcher who excels at retiring left-handed hitters, but his ability to get right-handed hitters out has diminished precipitously this season. Right-handers are hitting .355 off of Pallante, although his BABIP of .313 is the same as last year's.

Pallante is one of the best ground-ball pitchers in the sport, but even his 77.7% ground-ball rate hasn't been able to help him as much as it would in years past given the elimination of the defensive shift. Further hurting Pallante is his increased walk rate, from 8.8% of batters last season to 10% this year.

Opposing hitters have teed off on Pallante's breaking pitches, batting .326 on his slider and .321 on his curveball. The slider's effectiveness has declined dramatically, as opponents hit only .195 off of it last season.

Pallante's bullpen spot could be in jeopardy next season given the Cardinals' desire to catch up with the times and find pitchers with swing-and-miss stuff, which Pallante decidedly lacks. On the other hand, pitchers who can retire lefties are valuable, so the Cardinals might give him one more chance.

Adam Wainwright

Adam Wainwright's 2022 season defied his advanced age, as he pitched to a 3.71 ERA at age 41. But in 2023, Wainwright was, by many metrics, the worst pitcher in baseball. Injuries that hampered him at the end of last season continued to plague him this year. He was in the first percentile of run value, expected ERA, expected batting average, fastball velocity, whiff percentage, and strikeout percentage.

Wainwright lost much of his previously elite extension this season, and the spin on his curveball declined as well. The surface stats are equally ugly: a 7.40 ERA and a 5-11 record along with 151 hits allowed in 101 innings.

If the Cardinals had been in the playoff race this season, Wainwright almost certainly would have been sent to the bullpen, but Wainwright was thankfully able to salvage his season with some strong outings at the end, including seven shutout innings in what has been revealed to be his final career appearance.

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Although Wainwright's final season was not the swan song fans hoped for, he will retire as one of greatest starting pitchers in the history of the Cardinals organization.

The Cardinals need to receive more production from the three pitchers on this list who are returning next season. If they don't, the team will be in for another rough year.

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