5 Cardinals already playing themselves into bigger roles in 2024

Alec Burleson

Here are the Cardinals wRC+ leaders since the beginning of the second half.

1. Lars Nootbaar - 183 wRC+ (24 G)

2. Nolan Gorman - 177 wRC+ (20 G)

3. Alec Burleson - 159 wRC+ (21 G)

While it's not a huge sample size, even expanding it to the beginning of July puts Burleson at a 139 wRC+, and even extending that time frame to the beginning of June has him at a 112 wRC+.

So what does that all mean? Since June, Burleson is 12% above league average at the plate, 39% since the beginning of July, and a whopping 59% since the second half began. Remember how the Cardinals talked early this season about the underlying metrics showing Burley was getting unlucky? Well, the numbers are finally showing what the Cardinals were seeing.

Burleson only has 308 plate appearances at the big league level since he debuted last season, and he has continued to take real strides at the plate. All he did was hit since being drafted in 2020 and has provided the Cardinals with another legit bat for their lineup.

Do I expect Burleson to be a 159 wRC+ player now? No. Do I think a 139 wRC+ is even a fair expectation? No. But do I expect Burleson to be between a 115-130 wRC+ in 2024 at this rate? Yes, I do. That kind of production from the left side of the plate is a real weapon to have in your lineup and is why I think St. Louis is continuing to find opportunities for him.

Could I see the Cardinals using Burleson's trade value as a part of their deal to acquire a starter this offseason? Sure. But I also think they'll be hesitant to move off him when he could be a major contributor from the corner outfield spots, DH, and first base next season.

Some have harped on his defense, but it's actually a pretty lazy take to say he is a bad defender. He's never going to be a stud out there, but he can be league average, and that plays with the kind of bat he has. For context, his -1 DRS on the season is tied with Tyler O'Neill, is only slightly behind Dylan Carlson and Tommy Edman, who are each at 1 DRS and is light years ahead of Jordan Walker who is sitting at a -16 DRS on the season.

If you are choosing to be patient with Walker's defense, then there is zero reason to be annoyed by Burleson's defense. It's time Burleson gets some of the love he deserves as a legit up-and-coming player for St. Louis.

JoJo Romero

Acquired in the Edmundo Sosa trade last season, JoJo Romero has mostly been an afterthought for most Cardinals fans when it comes to real bullpen pieces for this team. Well, just ask former Cardinal Randy Arozarena what he thinks of Romero's nasty changeup.

The Cardinals have been razor thin in the bullpen this season, and as of late, have given more and more high-leverage situations to Romero, and he has more than delivered in his opportunities.

I would not advocate that the Cardinals have found their new 7th or 8th-inning guy. The Cardinals still need to prioritize adding at least one arm worthy of high-leverage innings to their bullpen before next season. But if you do that, as well as add this version of Romero to Ryan Helsley and Giovanny Gallegos, you have yourself a formidable bullpen on your hands.

With how many young arms the Cardinals have going into next season (Guillermo Zuniga, Wilking Rodriguez, Zack Thompson, Matthew Liberatroe, Gordon Graceffo, Dakota Hudson, Drew Rom, Michael McGreevy, Adam Kloffenstein, Andre Pallante, and Sem Robberse), I think they can realistically piece together the rest of the bullpen if they have 4-5 arms they feel good about at the back end.

Romero has firmly placed his name in that mix.

Steven Matz

No, I'm not about to try and say that Steven Matz is now some incredible number-three starter for your rotation. And before you say that's how the Cardinals are going to view him now, I highly doubt that as well.

But Matz has proven since his demotion to the bullpen that he belongs in the Cardinals' 2024 rotation. Check out these stats that Brandon Kiley shared the other day.

For those keeping track at home, that is a 1.65 ERA since returning to the rotation for Matz, and opponents have a batting average of just .192 off of him. If you go even further back to when Matz was demoted to the bullpen, he has a 2.03 ERA and .202 OBA.

Our own Sandy McMcillian did a deep dive into Matz's resurgence, which I highly recommend checking out here.

Matz has not only pitched himself back into the conversation for a rotation spot in 2024, but I think the Cardinals can confidently place Matz in their number four spot, which will make it easier for them to fill out their rotation for next season.

How so? Well if Matz is your number four and Mikoals is your number three, then you only need to figure out your number one, two, and five starters for next season. One of those front-line guys can come via free agency, and then they can use either free agency or trade to acquire the other guy. The number five spot can be a low-cost free agent, trade target, or internal option.

Matthew Liberatore

Before his start against the Tampa Bay Rays, it really seemed like Matthew Liberatore was running out of chances to prove he could be a real rotatoin option for the Cardinals in 2024. Sure, he's still young (just 23 years old), but he continues to run into the same issues that make it very difficult to see him as a starter long-term.

And then, not only with his back up against the wall performance-wise but playing in perhaps the biggest game of his career, against the team that traded him, Liberatore went out and shoved. He looked incredible.

Throwing 8 scoreless innings, 7 strikeouts, just 2 hits, and 0 walks allowed, Liberatore shut down one of the best offenses in baseball and did so in style. His fastball velocity was up during the game, which will be critical for his growth as a starter, and his command was excellent throughout.

Now, just like the next name on this list, there is no guarantee that Liberatore will make the 2024 rotation just based on this one performance. But seriously, he did himself a ton of favors with this one. In all honesty, he just hasn't shown much upside as a starter in his Major League appearances, but this start showed why he is a former top-100 prospect.

Liberatore should enter 2024 firmly in the mix for the number five spot in the Cardinals' rotation, assuming this start is a stepping-stone performance for him. No one should expect him to go out and pitch like this each game, but if he can even look somewhat like this version of himself the rest of the year, that's a really good number-five option for St. Louis.

Dakota Hudson

Speaking of internal options for the Cardinals' number-five starter next season, Dakota Hudson has played his way into the competition for that spot in the 2024 rotation, but he has by no means secured that spot for himself.

Honestly, until Hudson's recent play, it was likely that St. Louis would non-tender him this offseason, rather than paying him over $3 million to be a failing Triple-A starter. There is still a chance that happens with the amount of depth the Cardinals have at Triple-A right now when it comes to starting pitching, but for now, he's now a contender for their staff in 2024.

Hudson's last two starts are where things have really progressed for him. Against the Twins on August 2nd, Hudson pitched seven innings, allowing three runs on two hits with three walks and striking out seven batters in the process. On August 9th against the Rays, Hudson went five innings, allowing three runs on seven hits, one walk, and two strikeouts. He probably could have gone another inning or two based on his low pitch count as well.

Again, he's not viewed as a guarantee for the rotation by any means, and he may not even be the internal frontrunner for the number five spot either. But it is encouraging to see his results as of late, and he's definitely got the Cardinals' attention now.

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