4 big questions facing the Cardinals after 2 months of play
After two months of the 2024 season, the Cardinals have some big questions they have yet to answer.
The St. Louis Cardinals have been treading water this season. While the injury bug hasn't gotten them as much as other teams (the Miami Marlins lost their entire starting rotation at one point), they have faced their fair share of players out for extended periods of time. After playing the mighty Philadelphia Phillies, the Cardinals sit at 28-29, a much better place than last year.
The starting rotation has been buoyed by strong performances from Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson. The offense has been carried primarily by the team's catchers, Willson Contreras when healthy and Ivan Herrera, and Masyn Winn. Thanks to strong performances from JoJo Romero, Andrew Kittredge, and Ryan Helsley, the bullpen has been stout. Even the team's defense this year is much improved.
Plenty of questions we held during the offseason have been answered; John Mozeliak found his 3 starters, the bullpen has been shored up for the most part, and we have a better idea of what Masyn Winn can be given full reign. The bulk of the difficult decisions that the team left Spring Training with have been answered.
There are still ample questions that need to be answered about this team at the 1/3 mark of the season. Here are 4 of them.
Who gets an extension?
In the offseason, extension conversations were prevalent. Would the Cardinals offer Paul Goldschmidt a 2-year contract to close his great (Hall of Fame?) career with the Birds on the Bat? Would a young player like Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, or Brendan Donovan receive a multi-year deal to buy out their arbitration years?
Tommy Edman was the recipient this past offseason, but the question remains. The names included have changed. Jordan Walker is mired in a power outage in the minors, Nolan Gorman has yet to show a consistent ability to lay off high fastballs and breaking balls down, Brendan Donovan has taken a significant step back, and Paul Goldschmidt is a shell of his former self.
These four players are likely playing themselves out of a contract extension, but some new faces have emerged as potential candidates: Masyn Winn, Ivan Herrera, and Ryan Helsley. Each of these 3 are having stellar seasons, and 2 even stand to possibly attend the All-Star Game.
Masyn Winn had an 18-game hitting streak, and he's hitting above .300 as a rookie. Ivan Herrera has done nothing but mash since filling in for the injured Willson Contreras. Ryan Helsley is at the top of the leaderboard in saves on the season. Only Helsley is arbitration eligible -- next offseason is his last before free agency -- so it may be a bit premature to offer extensions to the shortstop and catcher of the future.
Any one of these three players is worthy of a contract extension, and it wouldn't be surprising if we start hearing whispers of conversations between the team and the players.
Which left-handed batter will take off?
A true batting order has balance. You need players who can get on base, players who can run, players who hit for power, and even players who are excellent at the sacrifice play. In addition to these styles of hitting, balance with hitter-handedness is preferred. The Cardinals have that -- on paper at least.
From the right side of the plate, the Cardinals can list Nolan Arenado, Ivan Herrera, Paul Goldschmidt, and Masyn Winn as near-consistent contributors. They also boast an array of left-handed batters. Lars Nootbaar (when healthy), Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan, and Matt Carpenter are all capable batters. The only issue is that not one has truly taken off this year. Burleson has been much improved offensively, and he currently sits as the team's best lefty bat.
Lars Nootbaar was showing signs of growth before straining his oblique, but the others haven't been able to take that next step to strike fear against right-handed pitchers. Matt Carpenter is a reserve player who is past his glory days. Nolan Gorman does have 11 home runs to his name, but he's striking out more than 35% of the time. Every figure in Brendan Donovan's slash line has dropped this year.
Offense across the league is down, but not one of these left-handed batters for the Cardinals has been great this year, and that's limited the offense's ceiling. If even just one of Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, or Lars Nootbaar -- whenever he returns -- can be a force in the lineup, the offensive profile of the team changes dramatically.
Where (and when) will bullpen help come from?
What was once a top-10 bullpen for the St. Louis Cardinals has since become a middle-of-the-pack relief corps. Ryan Helsley, JoJo Romero, and Andrew Kittredge have been overworked. Matthew Liberatore was moved to the rotation for a few weeks, so his work was sorely missed. Keynan Middleton and Giovanny Gallegos are currently out with injuries. While John King and Ryan Fernandez have filled in admirably, the team's relievers are struggling these last few weeks.
On the year, the Cardinals' bullpen ranks 17th in fWAR, 16th in ERA, 14th in strikeout percentage, and 15th in WHIP. Most pitching stats place the team's relief corps smack in the middle of the league. Luckily, the team's bullpen has pitched the 5th-fewest innings in baseball this year, so they haven't exactly been overworked as a whole.
Regardless, reinforcements are necessary and immediate. Ryan Loutos, a Washington University graduate, was recently called up. Kyle Leahy has filled in well throughout these injuries. Andrew Kittredge has begun showing some cracks in his last few appearances, giving up at least 1 run in his last 4 outings.
Keynan Middleton's return is murky at best and unlikely at worst. Giovanny Gallegos has started a rehab assignment with the Memphis Redbirds, and he threw 1 inning on Friday, striking out 1 and getting two other outs on soft contact -- a pop fly and a groundball. Even if Gallegos does return in the next week, we can't count on his dominance from 2019-2022 returning.
Additions from the outside may be necessary. Woo-Suk Go, Aaron Brooks, and Jorge Lopez were all designated for assignment recently and could help the team. Trade candidates like Tanner Scott of the Miami Marlins, Michael Kopech and Tim Hill of the Chicago White Sox, and Scott Alexander of the Oakland Athletics are all available.
Relief help is necessary, and it must come soon. It's a matter of whom and when rather than if at this point.
What's the deal with the outfielders?
The Cardinals haven't fielded a consistent set of outfielders in years. The last time they had an outfielder accumulate more than 6 fWAR, a figure that would constitute a great season, was 2021. Consequently, the other two primary outfielders, Harrison Bader and Dylan Carlson, exceeded 3 fWAR that same year. Prior to that year, Tommy Pham in 2017 was the last to exceed 4 fWAR in a season.
Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson, and Lars Nootbaar have all spent time on the injured list this year. Jordan Walker was demoted to AAA to fix his power stroke. Due to these absences, players like Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson have played more than initially expected. Burly has played well above projections, but there isn't much depth behind him.
Michael Siani and Victor Scott II were exceptional defensively, but both were essentially non-factors at the plate. While offensive output isn't necessary out of a team's center fielder, it is still welcome.
The Cardinals are in desperate need of an outfielder who can mash in the heart of a lineup. Dylan Carlson hasn't been able to reach his projected ceiling for whatever reason. Jordan Walker is a negative defender still with an inability to hit for power as a 22-year-old. Lars Nootbaar can't seem to stay healthy.
Whether the team finds a stud outfielder via trade (Luis Robert Jr. or Kyle Tucker) or their own players take that next step, an outfielder who can be a force on the offensive side of the game is a necessity to remain relevant in the National League.