3 ways trading for Sean Murphy could have totally changed the Cardinals' offseason

The number one story for the St. Louis Cardinals this offseason was who they would choose to replace Yadier Molina behind the dish. There were so many names floated around, but by the end of the Winter Meetings, they had agreed on a five-year contract with former Cubs catcher Willson Contreras.

Before the deal was made though, the Cardinals' had their eyes on another catcher: Sean Murphy.

Murphy made a ton of sense for the Cardinals and it is hard to blame them for making him their number-one target. Murphy is known for his prolific skills behind the plate and is also a great hitter like Contreras. For his career, Murphy has a .770 OPS. far higher than most catchers in baseball. Paired with an elite defense, that is a very valuable player. He has backed that up with an incredible play to begin the 2023 season.

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported that the Athletics' asking price was "high-like the moon", according to an executive he spoke with. The Athletics wanted a package of Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, and prospect Gordon Graceffo due to the three years of club control Murphy still had. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required) added to this report, saying the Cardinals countered by asking Oakland to pick two of the following players to be dealt for Murphy: Nolan Gorman, Dylan Carlson, Juan Yepez, and Alec Burleson.

It's honestly shocking to see the kinds of names the Cardinals and Athletics were talking about in this deal, who St. Louis was willing to part with, and believing that Oakland actually the offer that they did for Murphy.

It's safe to say the Cardinals' offseason would have turned out a lot differently had they made a trade for Murphy. Many of those names discussed are extremely impactful players for this Cardinals' club and would have been a shame for them to lose. At the same time, Goold and others have pointed out that the Cardinals' would have made other significant moves in free agency had this deal gone down.

Let's look at three different scenarios of how a Murphy deal could have gone down, and how it would have drastically changed this Cardinals' team for this year.

Scenario #1 - The Athletics give into the Cardinals' offer

In this first scenario, Oakland would bring their insane asking price down and instead settle for what the Cardinals' wanted them to accept. Let's say in this scenario, they get three of those players: Nolan Gorman, Dylan Carlson, and Juan Yepez.

First, that is immediately a huge blow to the Cardinals lineup, as they lose their best hitter of the 2023 season so far in Gorman, as well as two very good bats in Burleson and Yepez. This would leave the Cardinals will multiple holes that need to be filled in their lineup, but in that same article for Goold, he alluding to the club's big-time answer to that problem.

Goold wrote that "had the Cardinals traded for a catcher, they would have used some of the payroll space saved to explore signing a shortstop". That shortstop was Dansby Swanson. I was firmly against the idea of Swanson all offseason, but so far this year, he's been pretty good at the plate for the Cubs and played stellar defense.

That likely means the Cardinals' lineup this year would have been the following...

1. DH Brendan Donovan
2. LF Lars Nootbaar
3. 1B Paul Goldschmidt
4. 3B Nolan Arenado
5. SS Dansby Swanson
6. C Sean Murphy
7. CF Tyler O'Neill
8. RF Jordan Walker
9. 2B Tommy Edman

This is a vastly different lineup than what the Cardinals' have today, and a pretty big step back considering how good Contreras and Gorman have been at the plate this year. The counterargument, though, could be that pitching and run prevention may have improved significantly. While Contreras has been great a throwing out runners this season, the jury is still out on his game calling and pitch framing, two things that Murphy is incredible at, not to mention the defense Swanson provides up the middle.

The next scenario involves another major roster shakeup and another current Cub in the Cardinals' lineup

Scenario #3 - The Cardinals and A's meet in the middle, and St. Louis then has a wild offseason

There are obviously a lot of assumptions made in this scenario, but imagine a world where the Cardinals end up with Sean Murphy, Cody Bellinger, and Pablo Lopez.

First, the Cardinals deal Brendan Donovan, Dylan Carlson, and Gordon Graceffo to the Athletics for Sean Murphy. The Cardinals cave in by giving up some of their prized possessions in Donovan and Graceffo, and the Athletics allow the Cardinals to replace Nootbaar with Carlson.

The Cardinals then go out and spend money on Cody Bellinger as their fallback option - and now suddenly have another surplus of outfielders they can deal for a starting pitcher. While Ken Rosenthal did say that the Cardinals and Marlins talked about Tyler O'Neill this offseason, a deal never happened, which I'm guessing had to do with an unwillingness from both teams to complete a move. Maybe in this scenario, the clubs could agree to some kind of O'Neill and Yepez or Burleson for Lopez deal (although I have a strong feeling the Marlins would have really wanted Nootbaar).

Look at how this team COULD have shaped out in this scenario.

1. LF Lars Nootbaar
2. 1B Paul Goldschmidt
3. 2B Nolan Gorman
4. 3B Nolan Arenado
5. CF Cody Bellinger
6. C Sean Murphy
7. DH Alec Burleson
8. RF Jordan Walker
9. SS Tommy Edman

Then the Cardinals rotation would have added Lopez to their mix with Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, and Adam Wainwright. Lopez has been great for Minnesota so far, but like Bellinger, it's still way too early in the season to say that was a miss from St. Louis.

I'm not arguing the Cardinals would have been better off trading for Murphy and going with one of these scenarios or another for this season. What I am trying to show though is that the Cardinals' decision on their catcher position this offseason was truly a franchise-defining move for the next few years. With Contreras locked in, the Cardinals were able to hold onto their young position players, and now have the flexibility to make more trades in the near future.

What did it cost them though? Potentially a major upgrade defensively at the position, and they were unable to use the money that they paid Contreras to improve the team in other areas. It's interesting just how much some moves impact countless others, and not trading for Sean Murphy was one of those.