3 ways trading for Sean Murphy could have totally changed the Cardinals' offseason

The number one story for the St. Louis Cardinals this offseason was who they would choose to replace Yadier Molina behind the dish. There were so many names floated around, but by the end of the Winter Meetings, they had agreed on a five-year contract with former Cubs catcher Willson Contreras.

Before the deal was made though, the Cardinals' had their eyes on another catcher: Sean Murphy.

Murphy made a ton of sense for the Cardinals and it is hard to blame them for making him their number-one target. Murphy is known for his prolific skills behind the plate and is also a great hitter like Contreras. For his career, Murphy has a .770 OPS. far higher than most catchers in baseball. Paired with an elite defense, that is a very valuable player. He has backed that up with an incredible play to begin the 2023 season.

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported that the Athletics' asking price was "high-like the moon", according to an executive he spoke with. The Athletics wanted a package of Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, and prospect Gordon Graceffo due to the three years of club control Murphy still had. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required) added to this report, saying the Cardinals countered by asking Oakland to pick two of the following players to be dealt for Murphy: Nolan Gorman, Dylan Carlson, Juan Yepez, and Alec Burleson.

It's honestly shocking to see the kinds of names the Cardinals and Athletics were talking about in this deal, who St. Louis was willing to part with, and believing that Oakland actually the offer that they did for Murphy.

It's safe to say the Cardinals' offseason would have turned out a lot differently had they made a trade for Murphy. Many of those names discussed are extremely impactful players for this Cardinals' club and would have been a shame for them to lose. At the same time, Goold and others have pointed out that the Cardinals' would have made other significant moves in free agency had this deal gone down.

Let's look at three different scenarios of how a Murphy deal could have gone down, and how it would have drastically changed this Cardinals' team for this year.

Scenario #2 - The Cardinals meet the A's asking price

In this second scenario, John Mozeliak and company give into the Athletics' asking price, trading away Nootbaar, Donovan, and Graceffo for Murphy.

There was a lot of talk at the time that depending on what kind of package the club had to give up for Murphy, they would have explored adding a left-handed bat to the lineup. This would have been an even bigger need if both Nootbaar and Donovan were dealt. The name that seemed to make the most sense for St. Louis here was Cody Bellinger.

Bellinger, who is a former MVP, has had a great season so far for the Cubs, slashing .300/.380/.550 with 5 HR and 15 RBI while playing elite center field defense. Here is how the Cardinals' lineup would have stacked up.

1. SS Tommy Edman
2. 1B Paul Goldschmidt
3. 2B Nolan Gorman
4. 3B Nolan Arenado
5. CF Cody Bellinger
6. C Sean Murphy
7. DH Alec Burleson
8. LF Tyler O'Neill
9. RF Jordan Walker

Oddly enough, the package that felt like an insane asking price at the time, may have ended up being better for St. Louis than the one they wanted to offer. I'd still rather have Nootbar, Donovan, and Graceffo than Murphy, but if Bellinger's rebound this year is for real, the combination of him and Murphy in the Cardinals' lineup would have been filthy. Bellinger, Muprhy, and Gorman are all hitting like All-Stars right now, and pair that with Goldschmidt and Arenado, it's easily the best lineup in baseball.

Obivously Nootbaar has been great for St. Louis so far, and Donovan will surely bounce back, but it's interesting to see what kind of lineup they could have put together.

Scenario #3 - The Cardinals and A's meet in the middle, and St. Louis then has a wild offseason

There are obviously a lot of assumptions made in this scenario, but imagine a world where the Cardinals end up with Sean Murphy, Cody Bellinger, and Pablo Lopez.

First, the Cardinals deal Brendan Donovan, Dylan Carlson, and Gordon Graceffo to the Athletics for Sean Murphy. The Cardinals cave in by giving up some of their prized possessions in Donovan and Graceffo, and the Athletics allow the Cardinals to replace Nootbaar with Carlson.

The Cardinals then go out and spend money on Cody Bellinger as their fallback option - and now suddenly have another surplus of outfielders they can deal for a starting pitcher. While Ken Rosenthal did say that the Cardinals and Marlins talked about Tyler O'Neill this offseason, a deal never happened, which I'm guessing had to do with an unwillingness from both teams to complete a move. Maybe in this scenario, the clubs could agree to some kind of O'Neill and Yepez or Burleson for Lopez deal (although I have a strong feeling the Marlins would have really wanted Nootbaar).

Look at how this team COULD have shaped out in this scenario.

1. LF Lars Nootbaar
2. 1B Paul Goldschmidt
3. 2B Nolan Gorman
4. 3B Nolan Arenado
5. CF Cody Bellinger
6. C Sean Murphy
7. DH Alec Burleson
8. RF Jordan Walker
9. SS Tommy Edman

Then the Cardinals rotation would have added Lopez to their mix with Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery, Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, and Adam Wainwright. Lopez has been great for Minnesota so far, but like Bellinger, it's still way too early in the season to say that was a miss from St. Louis.

I'm not arguing the Cardinals would have been better off trading for Murphy and going with one of these scenarios or another for this season. What I am trying to show though is that the Cardinals' decision on their catcher position this offseason was truly a franchise-defining move for the next few years. With Contreras locked in, the Cardinals were able to hold onto their young position players, and now have the flexibility to make more trades in the near future.

What did it cost them though? Potentially a major upgrade defensively at the position, and they were unable to use the money that they paid Contreras to improve the team in other areas. It's interesting just how much some moves impact countless others, and not trading for Sean Murphy was one of those.