3 underlying stats that show the Cardinals fall from offensive prowess

There are a few things that make an offense in baseball good. It starts with the hitting coach and his ability to inspire, prepare, and execute an offensive game plan. Most of the work, however, falls on the players and their ability to perform. The sum of an offense is only as good as its parts. If those players aren't meeting expectations, then it seems logical that a sub-par offense will follow.

That has been the case with the St. Louis Cardinals this year. Only Masyn Winn and Willson Contreras are exceeding their preseason projections, and key players such as Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Lars Nootbaar, and Brendan Donovan are not meeting expectations. While Turner Ward, the team's hitting coach, could be at fault here, in the end, performance on the field should fall primarily on those who are playing the game.

When looking at basic stats, it is very clear where the Cardinals are struggling. As of May 3rd, they ranked 26th in batting average, 28th in on-base plus slugging percentage, last in home runs, 27th in runs per game, 27th in slugging percentage, 27th in wOBA, and 28th in OPS+. Those stats give us results, then what? What I want to find out is the reasoning behind these dramatic drops in performance, also known as the why.

There could be any number of reasons why a player is slumping or why an entire offense goes dark for long periods of time. Perhaps a player is trying out a new stance. A hitting coach could be pushing players to try for sacrifices or finding gaps rather than hitting home runs. Regardless of the philosophy behind a transition in offense, certain underlying stats can begin to paint a picture as to why the Cardinals' offense can't get off the ground.

Plate discipline, hitting fly balls, and seeing pitches can all lead to offensive success. Seeing more pitches allows hitters to learn more about pitchers; fly balls are the easiest way to hit a home run; a quality at bat leads to positive results on the field.

These 3 statistics could describe why the St. Louis Cardinals offense has been anemic to start the 2024 season.

Pulled Fly Balls

From a pure power perspective, a fly ball hit to the pull side is the best possible batted-ball outcome. Exit velocities are significantly greater when hitters pull the ball, and a ball hit in the air has an exponentially higher possibility of being a home run than a groundball does. Also, the field is much shorter down the lines than way out to center field.

From 2021-2023, batters had a .937 wOBA on contact when a fly ball was pulled. The next-highest value was a pulled line drive, which also makes sense. Meanwhile, groundballs had the greatest wOBA when hit to the opposite field (.387). On the whole, any ball hit to the pull side, regardless of its height, created the greatest wOBA of .413.

Suffice it to say, fly balls hit to the pull side of the batter create the highest likelihood for a hit, and a big one at that.

The Cardinals have dropped drastically in pulled fly ball rates since 2022. The chart below details this notion.

The Cardinals have pulled a minuscule amount of fly balls this year, and that could explain their lack of power output. Teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, Baltimore Orioles, Seattle Mariners, and Texas Rangers have consistently been the best at pulling fly balls, and they subsequently boast some of the best offenses in baseball, particularly when it comes to home runs.

In order to achieve greater power output and hit more home runs, Cardinals batters need to focus on pulling the ball in the air more often. This will, hopefully, lead to more home runs, something the offense desperately needs to succeed this year.

Pitch Selection

Plate discipline is one of Turner Ward's focuses. In a recent interview with The Athletic (subscription required), Ward stated that "it’s about how we can be in a position as an offense to be ready to swing at pitches we can do damage on. Because when you’re struggling, you just want to get a hit, so you become a strike-zone hitter." Swinging at strikes is fine and good, but swinging at good pitches is ideal. Seeing more pitches opens up opportunities to see hittable pitches.

Ward goes on to discuss how players have been missing fastballs up in the zone and breaking balls down and away. These are typically the two toughest pitches for batters to hit regardless of handedness splits. Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman are two players in particular who have struggled with these pitches.

When looking at Baseball Savant statistics filtered for fastballs in the top three quadrants of the strike zone, the Cardinals struggles become quite evident. As a team, the Cardinals rank 25th according to wOBA (.244) with fastballs up in the zone. The Minnesota Twins, however, rank first with a wOBA of .346.

Breaking balls down and away tell a similar story. The Cardinals rank 23rd in all of baseball according to wOBA on breaking balls in the bottom third of the strike zone with a wOBA of .249.

In Woo's piece, Ward discusses two players in particular: Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman. Both have struggled to lay off high fastballs and breaking balls down and away. Both have struggled this year with those approaches.

In order to improve offensive output, the Cardinals hitters must see more pitches, pull the ball more often, and avoid high fastballs and breaking balls down and away. These three categories have wreaked havoc on the team's offensive output thus far.