3 underlying stats that show the Cardinals fall from offensive prowess

There are a few things that make an offense in baseball good. It starts with the hitting coach and his ability to inspire, prepare, and execute an offensive game plan. Most of the work, however, falls on the players and their ability to perform. The sum of an offense is only as good as its parts. If those players aren't meeting expectations, then it seems logical that a sub-par offense will follow.

That has been the case with the St. Louis Cardinals this year. Only Masyn Winn and Willson Contreras are exceeding their preseason projections, and key players such as Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Lars Nootbaar, and Brendan Donovan are not meeting expectations. While Turner Ward, the team's hitting coach, could be at fault here, in the end, performance on the field should fall primarily on those who are playing the game.

When looking at basic stats, it is very clear where the Cardinals are struggling. As of May 3rd, they ranked 26th in batting average, 28th in on-base plus slugging percentage, last in home runs, 27th in runs per game, 27th in slugging percentage, 27th in wOBA, and 28th in OPS+. Those stats give us results, then what? What I want to find out is the reasoning behind these dramatic drops in performance, also known as the why.

There could be any number of reasons why a player is slumping or why an entire offense goes dark for long periods of time. Perhaps a player is trying out a new stance. A hitting coach could be pushing players to try for sacrifices or finding gaps rather than hitting home runs. Regardless of the philosophy behind a transition in offense, certain underlying stats can begin to paint a picture as to why the Cardinals' offense can't get off the ground.

Plate discipline, hitting fly balls, and seeing pitches can all lead to offensive success. Seeing more pitches allows hitters to learn more about pitchers; fly balls are the easiest way to hit a home run; a quality at bat leads to positive results on the field.

These 3 statistics could describe why the St. Louis Cardinals offense has been anemic to start the 2024 season.

Pitches per plate appearance

The early bird gets the worm, but the patient hitter gets a hit. Or something like that.

There are many benefits to a hitter seeing multiple pitches during an at-bat. Most coaches use either 6 or 8 pitches as the baseline for a "quality at bat". While it's unrealistic to expect every hitter to see that many pitches, having some who do see a lot of pitches is very beneficial.

Seeing more pitches in an at-bat wears a pitcher out, and it allows the batter to learn more about the pitcher himself. While more pitches won't necessarily lead to a hit, walks are more likely, thus increasing on-base percentage. Conversely, seeing more pitches increases the possibility of a strikeout. This is the double-edged sword of seeing more pitches.

While the gap appears to be microscopic year to year, the Cardinals' rank in the league has dropped dramatically. League average has largely stayed the same annually, but the Cardinals have slowly been dropping below league average.

Teams such as the New York Yankees (109 OPS+, 8th in baseball), Seattle Mariners(91 OPS+, 21st in baseball), and Los Angeles Angels (97 OPS+, 16th in baseball) have seen the most pitches per at bat, but that hasn't necessarily translated to on-field success. The Los Angeles Dodgers, the team with the highest OPS+ in all of baseball at 125 have seen the 8th-most pitches per plate appearance. The Miami Marlins rank last in OPS+ and pitches per plate appearance, for what it's worth.

Pitches per plate appearance does not directly correlate with success offensively. It is simply one cog in the larger machine that is offensive output.

Pitch Selection

Plate discipline is one of Turner Ward's focuses. In a recent interview with The Athletic (subscription required), Ward stated that "it’s about how we can be in a position as an offense to be ready to swing at pitches we can do damage on. Because when you’re struggling, you just want to get a hit, so you become a strike-zone hitter." Swinging at strikes is fine and good, but swinging at good pitches is ideal. Seeing more pitches opens up opportunities to see hittable pitches.

Ward goes on to discuss how players have been missing fastballs up in the zone and breaking balls down and away. These are typically the two toughest pitches for batters to hit regardless of handedness splits. Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman are two players in particular who have struggled with these pitches.

When looking at Baseball Savant statistics filtered for fastballs in the top three quadrants of the strike zone, the Cardinals struggles become quite evident. As a team, the Cardinals rank 25th according to wOBA (.244) with fastballs up in the zone. The Minnesota Twins, however, rank first with a wOBA of .346.

Breaking balls down and away tell a similar story. The Cardinals rank 23rd in all of baseball according to wOBA on breaking balls in the bottom third of the strike zone with a wOBA of .249.

In Woo's piece, Ward discusses two players in particular: Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman. Both have struggled to lay off high fastballs and breaking balls down and away. Both have struggled this year with those approaches.

In order to improve offensive output, the Cardinals hitters must see more pitches, pull the ball more often, and avoid high fastballs and breaking balls down and away. These three categories have wreaked havoc on the team's offensive output thus far.