3 underlying stats that show the Cardinals fall from offensive prowess

Pulled Fly Balls

From a pure power perspective, a fly ball hit to the pull side is the best possible batted-ball outcome. Exit velocities are significantly greater when hitters pull the ball, and a ball hit in the air has an exponentially higher possibility of being a home run than a groundball does. Also, the field is much shorter down the lines than way out to center field.

From 2021-2023, batters had a .937 wOBA on contact when a fly ball was pulled. The next-highest value was a pulled line drive, which also makes sense. Meanwhile, groundballs had the greatest wOBA when hit to the opposite field (.387). On the whole, any ball hit to the pull side, regardless of its height, created the greatest wOBA of .413.

Suffice it to say, fly balls hit to the pull side of the batter create the highest likelihood for a hit, and a big one at that.

The Cardinals have dropped drastically in pulled fly ball rates since 2022. The chart below details this notion.

The Cardinals have pulled a minuscule amount of fly balls this year, and that could explain their lack of power output. Teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, Baltimore Orioles, Seattle Mariners, and Texas Rangers have consistently been the best at pulling fly balls, and they subsequently boast some of the best offenses in baseball, particularly when it comes to home runs.

In order to achieve greater power output and hit more home runs, Cardinals batters need to focus on pulling the ball in the air more often. This will, hopefully, lead to more home runs, something the offense desperately needs to succeed this year.