3 trades the Cardinals could make for a Marlins' starting pitcher

Derrick Goold of the Post Dispatch recently discussed in one of his chats that the Cardinals have had "talks" with the Marlins about trading for one of their starting pitchers. Miami has been a pitching hotbed in recent years, and even with the recent surgery for Sandy Alcantara, the Marlins have some surplus pitching to trade.

It is unlikely that Eury Perez and Braxton Garrett are traded, as Perez is extremely young and talented and Garrett is coming off his best year yet. However, their remaining three starting pitchers, Jesus Luzardo, Edward Cabrera, and Trevor Rogers could be appealing candidates to the Cardinals. Each of these players has his strengths, and each would require a different package in return for the Marlins.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently reported that Miami is listening to offers on Jesus Luzardo. The Marlins have been searching for offense these past few seasons. Since 2020, their pitching has carried them in the regular season and postseason, but the Marlins' offense hasn't been able to provide enough run support.

In 2023, Miami ranked 26th in runs scored, 20th in OPS+, and 23rd in total home runs. The Marlins were in the bottom third of the league in most offensive categories. Conversely, they had one of the best starting rotations in all of baseball last year. Given their strong season last year and their award-winning manager, it seems likely that Miami will deal from its pitching depth at some point this year to improve its offense.

St. Louis may be finished adding to their rotation for 2024, but a trade with the Marlins is very enticing. Miami needs a shortstop and a catcher next year. They could also move Jazz Chisholm Jr. back to shortstop and trade for a center fielder.

Luckily, St. Louis has plenty of talented position players at both the major league level and in the minors. They could trade from their strength to improve an already revamped rotation.

Trevor Rogers

The lowest player on the totem pole from the Marlins is probably Trevor Rogers. He has the least amount of team control of the bunch, and his injury history should give the Cardinals pause. However, due to these facts, he would also cost St. Louis the least amount in return. Rogers has yet to pitch in more than 133 innings in his four years at the major league level, and he only pitched eighteen innings in 2023. Rogers is set to be a free agent after the 2026 season.

Trevor Rogers has a career 4.12 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 1.332 WHIP, and has struck out just over ten batters per nine innings; those numbers would be great for a mid-rotation starting pitcher. In 2021, he had a career year. Rogers placed second in National League Rookie of the Year and he was an All-Star. Rogers' 2.64 ERA, 2.55 FIP, and 1.150 WHIP were all stellar. He suffered a back injury in late July that kept him out for a month, but he still pitched 133 innings in just his sophomore season.

However, He had a rough 2022 season in which he pitched only 107 innings with a 5.47 ERA, 4.35 FIP, and he allowed 9.8 hits per nine innings. His K rate fell 6.3% between 2021 and 2022. 2023 was even more challenging for the left-handed pitcher. He faced a variety of injuries including a bicep strain and a lat strain. These two injuries forced him to pitch only eighteen innings last year in the majors. He gave up eight runs and struck out nineteen batters.

Given Rogers' ceiling, he still has some decent trade value. However, his extensive injury history should give the Cardinals pause. Conversely, this will also lower his price slightly. He is clearly a buy-low candidate with a high ceiling. Baseball-Reference projects him to pitch eighty innings next year with a 4.28 ERA, 9.3 strikeout-per-nine ratio, and a 1.313 WHIP.

St. Louis could probably snag Trevor Rogers for Dylan Carlson and a low-end pitching prospect. Carlson's injury history is similar to Rogers' and they will both reach free agency in 2027. The pitching prospect is a bit of a filler for the trade to entice the Marlins even more. Carlson can play center for the Marlins, thus allowing them to move Jazz Chisholm Jr. back to his initial position of shortstop.

Miami receives: OF Dylan Carlson and RHP Edwin Nunez

St. Louis Receives: LHP Trevor Rogers

Jesus Luzardo

In a recent poll I posted on Twitter/X, Cardinals fans chose Jesus Luzardo as their preferred pitching target, and I would have to agree with those fans.

Luzardo is the most consistent and most dominant starter for the Marlins after Sandy Alcantara's injury. Last year was Luzardo's breakout year. He pitched 178.2 innings with a 3.58 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 1.215 WHIP, and he had a 3.78 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Cabrera surpassed the 200-strikeout mark, and he maintained a modest walk rate of 7.4%. He would immediately slot in as the #1 or #2 pitcher for the Cardinals depending on how they view Sonny Gray.

Luzardo still has three more years of team control, and MLB Trade Rumors projects him to make $5.9 million through arbitration. Luzardo's recent success would increase his trade value, but he doesn't come with as much control as Edward Cabrera. Given Alcantara's Tommy John Surgery, Eury Perez's innings limit, Braxton Garrett's lack of experience, and the uncertainty between Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers, the Marlins may be apt to hold on to their most certain starting pitcher.

On the flip side, Luzardo would net quite the return for the Miami Marlins. They need a shortstop, and they could use a pitcher in addition to infield help. While the shortstop would ideally have some pop to him, especially given the on-base machine that is Luis Arraez, Miami is probably also asking for a player with strong defensive tendencies. They would like a pitcher with a healthy track record and a relatively high ceiling.

St. Louis could draw a player from a variety of locations to make this trade happen. They could swap Brendan Donovan, Tommy Edman, Masyn Winn, Victor Scott II, Matthew Liberatore, or Gordon Graceffo in this deal. The combination of players is key here. If St. Louis gives up a player with less team control, they'll have to include a higher-end pitcher. If they give up a position player with lots of team control, perhaps they could skate by with a starting pitching prospect with less certainty.

Trade 1:
Miami receives CF/SS Tommy Edman and RHP Gordon Graceffo
St. Louis receives LHP Jesus Luzardo

Trade 2:
Miami receives SS Masyn Winn and LHP Matthew Liberatore
St. Louis receives LHP Jesus Luzardo and UTIL Dane Myers