3 trades the Cardinals could make for a Marlins' starting pitcher

Derrick Goold of the Post Dispatch recently discussed in one of his chats that the Cardinals have had "talks" with the Marlins about trading for one of their starting pitchers. Miami has been a pitching hotbed in recent years, and even with the recent surgery for Sandy Alcantara, the Marlins have some surplus pitching to trade.

It is unlikely that Eury Perez and Braxton Garrett are traded, as Perez is extremely young and talented and Garrett is coming off his best year yet. However, their remaining three starting pitchers, Jesus Luzardo, Edward Cabrera, and Trevor Rogers could be appealing candidates to the Cardinals. Each of these players has his strengths, and each would require a different package in return for the Marlins.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently reported that Miami is listening to offers on Jesus Luzardo. The Marlins have been searching for offense these past few seasons. Since 2020, their pitching has carried them in the regular season and postseason, but the Marlins' offense hasn't been able to provide enough run support.

In 2023, Miami ranked 26th in runs scored, 20th in OPS+, and 23rd in total home runs. The Marlins were in the bottom third of the league in most offensive categories. Conversely, they had one of the best starting rotations in all of baseball last year. Given their strong season last year and their award-winning manager, it seems likely that Miami will deal from its pitching depth at some point this year to improve its offense.

St. Louis may be finished adding to their rotation for 2024, but a trade with the Marlins is very enticing. Miami needs a shortstop and a catcher next year. They could also move Jazz Chisholm Jr. back to shortstop and trade for a center fielder.

Luckily, St. Louis has plenty of talented position players at both the major league level and in the minors. They could trade from their strength to improve an already revamped rotation.

Edward Cabrera

Of the three trade candidates, Edward Cabrera is the riskiest choice. He has five years of control remaining, he has a highly-rated changeup, and he strikes batters out at a well above-average clip. Cabrera has two downsides: command and injuries. Last year, Cabrera was in and out due to a shoulder injury and time spent in Triple-A Jacksonville to improve his walk rate.

Edward Cabrera has a career walk rate of 14%, nearly 6% higher than league average. Just last year Cabrera ranked in the bottom 1% of the league in walk rate -- 15.2%. Cabrera's changeup (36.3%), curveball (38%), and slider (30.6%) all have whiff rates greater than 30%. His fastball sits in the 94-96 MPH range and can hit 98 on occasion. He has some of the best pure stuff in the game.

Injuries have been the story of Cabrera's young career. He has pitched only 197.2 innings in three years, and he has not pitched greater than 100 innings in a single season. Between his walk rates and his injury history, Edward Cabrera is the definition of "high risk, high reward". It has been rumored that the Marlins will hold onto Cabrera until they are blown away by a trade.

Due to his five remaining years of team control, his ability to strike batters out at a high rate, and his high ceiling, it could take a high price to land the talented righty. Miami is in need of offensive firepower, so I could see St. Louis giving up one of Nolan Gorman, Ivan Herrera, or even Thomas Saggesse. These are some fan favorites, so it will hurt to see any one of them leave via trade. Gorman has some fears about his back injuries, so he may be a good trade piece for an oft-injured pitcher.

Miami receives: 2B/3B Nolan Gorman

St. Louis receives: RHP Edward Cabrera

Jesus Luzardo

In a recent poll I posted on Twitter/X, Cardinals fans chose Jesus Luzardo as their preferred pitching target, and I would have to agree with those fans.

Luzardo is the most consistent and most dominant starter for the Marlins after Sandy Alcantara's injury. Last year was Luzardo's breakout year. He pitched 178.2 innings with a 3.58 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 1.215 WHIP, and he had a 3.78 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Cabrera surpassed the 200-strikeout mark, and he maintained a modest walk rate of 7.4%. He would immediately slot in as the #1 or #2 pitcher for the Cardinals depending on how they view Sonny Gray.

Luzardo still has three more years of team control, and MLB Trade Rumors projects him to make $5.9 million through arbitration. Luzardo's recent success would increase his trade value, but he doesn't come with as much control as Edward Cabrera. Given Alcantara's Tommy John Surgery, Eury Perez's innings limit, Braxton Garrett's lack of experience, and the uncertainty between Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers, the Marlins may be apt to hold on to their most certain starting pitcher.

On the flip side, Luzardo would net quite the return for the Miami Marlins. They need a shortstop, and they could use a pitcher in addition to infield help. While the shortstop would ideally have some pop to him, especially given the on-base machine that is Luis Arraez, Miami is probably also asking for a player with strong defensive tendencies. They would like a pitcher with a healthy track record and a relatively high ceiling.

St. Louis could draw a player from a variety of locations to make this trade happen. They could swap Brendan Donovan, Tommy Edman, Masyn Winn, Victor Scott II, Matthew Liberatore, or Gordon Graceffo in this deal. The combination of players is key here. If St. Louis gives up a player with less team control, they'll have to include a higher-end pitcher. If they give up a position player with lots of team control, perhaps they could skate by with a starting pitching prospect with less certainty.

Trade 1:
Miami receives CF/SS Tommy Edman and RHP Gordon Graceffo
St. Louis receives LHP Jesus Luzardo

Trade 2:
Miami receives SS Masyn Winn and LHP Matthew Liberatore
St. Louis receives LHP Jesus Luzardo and UTIL Dane Myers