The lowest player on the totem pole from the Marlins is probably Trevor Rogers. He has the least amount of team control of the bunch, and his injury history should give the Cardinals pause. However, due to these facts, he would also cost St. Louis the least amount in return. Rogers has yet to pitch in more than 133 innings in his four years at the major league level, and he only pitched eighteen innings in 2023. Rogers is set to be a free agent after the 2026 season.
Trevor Rogers has a career 4.12 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 1.332 WHIP, and has struck out just over ten batters per nine innings; those numbers would be great for a mid-rotation starting pitcher. In 2021, he had a career year. Rogers placed second in National League Rookie of the Year and he was an All-Star. Rogers' 2.64 ERA, 2.55 FIP, and 1.150 WHIP were all stellar. He suffered a back injury in late July that kept him out for a month, but he still pitched 133 innings in just his sophomore season.
However, He had a rough 2022 season in which he pitched only 107 innings with a 5.47 ERA, 4.35 FIP, and he allowed 9.8 hits per nine innings. His K rate fell 6.3% between 2021 and 2022. 2023 was even more challenging for the left-handed pitcher. He faced a variety of injuries including a bicep strain and a lat strain. These two injuries forced him to pitch only eighteen innings last year in the majors. He gave up eight runs and struck out nineteen batters.
Given Rogers' ceiling, he still has some decent trade value. However, his extensive injury history should give the Cardinals pause. Conversely, this will also lower his price slightly. He is clearly a buy-low candidate with a high ceiling. Baseball-Reference projects him to pitch eighty innings next year with a 4.28 ERA, 9.3 strikeout-per-nine ratio, and a 1.313 WHIP.
St. Louis could probably snag Trevor Rogers for Dylan Carlson and a low-end pitching prospect. Carlson's injury history is similar to Rogers' and they will both reach free agency in 2027. The pitching prospect is a bit of a filler for the trade to entice the Marlins even more. Carlson can play center for the Marlins, thus allowing them to move Jazz Chisholm Jr. back to his initial position of shortstop.