3 things the St. Louis Cardinals can learn from recent successful retools

1. Don't blow up your core

I've seen the argument from some that the duo of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado "haven't accomplished anything" since coming to St. Louis. First of all, this is just the third year of the team having both superstars paired together, and they found a way to lead the club to the playoffs each of the first two years.

No, this core hasn't won a World Series or even a pennant to prove that they can accomplish big things in October, but I refuse to believe your chances get "better" if you trade away two perennial MVP candidates that probably won't bring back impact players in return.

Let's look at one of the best examples of a club that found a way to retool on the fly and get back into World Series contention in the 2010s - the San Francisco Giants.

San Francisco Giants

Here is a look at the Giants run from 2010-2014.

See a pattern here? Obviously, the Giants' intention was not to take a step back on a year-to-year basis. They actually didn't really even sell at the deadline in 2013 when they were way out of the race. They believed in their core and retooled in the offseason to make a better run the following year.

If you look at their roster from 2010-2014, you'll see that nine different players were a part of all three World Series teams (Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner, Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt, Javier Lopez, and Santiago Casilla). Had the Giants traded away some of this core during their down years, I doubt they maintain the level of success they had during those "even-year World Series runs".

Sure, the club made plenty of moves around the edges and even brought in other significant pieces to boost their chances year to year, but they never gave up on their foundational pieces.

The Cardinals should not, and will not, be trading away Paul Goldschmidt or Nolan Arenado. Jordan Walker is a part of their untouchable core now two. The Cardinals could look to capitalize on the value of one, maybe two of their young bats outside of Walker, but the majority of that core should remain. One down season does not constitute a blow-up, and if the Cardinals maintain their core, they set themselves up for a chance to make a run in 2024.

2. Capitalize on the value of outgoing or redundant talent

Let's a flashback to the 2016 trade deadline and take a look at the New York Yankees. After going 87-75 in 2015 and losing in the Wild Card Series, the Yankees had an aging core and were heading toward missing the playoffs that season. Plenty of people were calling for Joe Girardi and Brian Cashman to be fired, and a full-fledged rebuild was being shouted from the rooftops by many.

Instead, the Yankees retooled their roster, lost in the ALCS in 2017 to the infamous Houston Astros cheating scandal, and have made the playoffs every year since, including two more ALCS appearances. So, how did they do it?

Well, Brian Cashman credits their decision to sell some pieces at the 2016 trade deadline as part of the catalyst for this turnaround. Check out this excerpt from Bryan Hoch's piece on MLB.com in 2018.

"In what Brian Cashman remembers as a series of his most difficult discussions with ownership, the veteran general manager received approval to dispatch several high-profile assets 2 1/2 years ago, having convinced managing general partner Hal Steinbrenner that his team was not strong enough to win the 2016 World Series.
Acting as sellers was foreign to the Yankees...but Cashman points to Monday's acquisition of left-hander James Paxton as evidence that those bold non-waiver Trade Deadline moves are continuing to pay dividends."

Here is some context to what Hoch is referring to here. At the 2016 trade deadline, the Yankees traded away relievers Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller in two separate deals that netted them high-end prospects. Justus Sheffield was one of the names that came over in the Miller deal, and Cashman was later able to flip Sheffield in a deal to acquire James Paxton to bolster their rotation in the 2018 offseason.

The Chapman deal also brought in quite the haul for the Yankees, netting them top prospect Gleyber Torres, outfielders Billy McKinney and Rashad Crawford, as well as reliever Adam Warren.

The Cardinals have multiple assets at this deadline that could net them really good returns and likely would not be on the team next year anyways. Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, and Jordan Hicks are all impending free agents, with Montgomery and Hicks being two of the best arms available this July. Flaherty, especially due to such a thin pitching market, should net a decent return as well.

It's not fun selling at the deadline, but the potential impact it can have on the success of future teams makes it essential. They do not need to go out and sell on guys like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, but they do need to capitalize on the value of these players and potentially names like Tyler O'Neill and Chris Stratton. If the Cardinals want to retain one of Montgomery, Hicks, or Flaherty for 2024 and beyond, they can look to retain them in free agency.

3. Aggressively upgrade your weaknesses

You don't even really have to follow the Cardinals to understand that they have a huge weakness when it comes to pitching. Both their rotation and their bullpen need significant rehauls between now and Spring Training, and this deadline can be the first attempt at that.

I talked about this recently, but the Cardinals need to look to sell on their impending free agents at the deadline, and then look to aggressively "buy" on controllable starting pitchers using some of their young bats at this deadline. If the opportunity presents itself where a team like the Mariners, Guardians, Marlins, or someone else with controllable starting pitching really wants one of the Cardinals' young bats not named Jordan Walker, the club has to listen to that.

I have my own opinions about who should be "shopped" vs. who should be held onto if at all possible, but realistically speaking, one of Nolan Gorman, Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, Masyn Winn, or Tommy Edman will have to be made available in order to acquire an arm with real upside and team control. Dylan Carlson is a name that could bring back a nice arm in return, but the upside and/or control will be very limited.

Packaging the likes of Luken Baker, Juan Yepez, Alec Burleson, Moises Gomez, and others with one of those names listed above could really get other clubs talking about their young arms. If a deal does not present itself at the deadline, the Cardinals can hold onto these chips until the winter, but if the deal is available now, it helps them get ahead on their offseason plans.

Next year, Miles Mikolas is the only starter I would say is "guaranteed" a rotation spot. Acquiring a controllable big league arm helps fill another one of those voids at a lower cost, and then allows the club to spend in free agency to fill 2-3 more of those gaps. Maybe Matthew Liberatore proves he is worthy of a spot over the rest of 2023? Maybe one of Michael McGreevy or Gorodan Graceffo can overtake him? Could Tink Hence possibly be ready as he has now risen to Double-A and looks spectacular this year? Any of these scenarios would help the Cardinals fill out their rotation next year.

Let's say the Cardinals pull off a deal for one of the Mariners pitchers like Logan Gilbert. Gilbert will likely make just over $1 million next season. Mikolas makes $16 million in 2024 and 2025 (which is a $4 million decrease from this cap hit this year). The Cardinals have publically stated they have more money to spend right now and also have an additional $37.5 million coming off the books with Montgomery, Flaherty, Stratton, Hicks, and Wainwright. Not to mention another $9 million or so in Paul DeJong and likely another $5 million in the form of Tyler O'Neill.

That leaves the Cardinals with, at least, close to $50 million in payroll to address one, two, or three of those other rotation spots. I could easily see St. Louis having the flexibility, if they have already acquired a young starter via trade, to fill two of those spots with free agent dollars and then allow one of Matz, Liberatore, Graceffo, or Hence to claim that final rotation spot.

A lot of that flexibility hinges on the Cardinals acquiring controllable starters though. If they cannot find a young, MLB-ready arm that they can rely on to fill one of those spots, they likely have to split that salary flexibility up even more, which won't allow them to go after some of the higher-end arms in free agency.

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