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3 St. Louis Cardinals prospects who are flourishing and 2 who are faltering
The Cardinals have a mix of prospects who are breaking out this year and others who are struggling
The St. Louis Cardinals make no secret of their organizational philosophy: draft promising players and develop them from within, eventually promoting them to the majors to replenish the pool of talent. It's a strategy that has worked beautifully for years for the Cardinals, and many of their players in the minor leagues look ready to contribute at the major league level.
Not all prospects can pan out, though. Major League Baseball teams are more adept than ever at scouting players and making strong draft choices, but the amateur draft is still far from a sure thing. Even the Cardinals, who are under drafting maestro Randy Flores, can't have a 100% hit rate on whom they choose.
The journey through the minor leagues is long and arduous for most players (albeit not as terrible as before given the fact that minor leaguers recently ratified their own collective bargaining agreement), and the Cardinals recently cut their losses on a massively struggling 2019 second-round pick, Tre Fletcher.
In this article, I will cover some prospects who are playing well this season and a couple who are not. While Jordan Walker and Masyn Winn are two who are excelling right now, I'm not going to cover those players in this article given their widespread analysis already taking place among fans. This article will cover five prospects who fall slightly further below the radar.
These are three St. Louis Cardinals prospects who are performing well and two who are fighting to keep their heads above water.
Flourishing prospects
Ivan Herrera, C
The Cardinals' top-catching prospect, Ivan Herrera has had a breakout season in Triple-A Memphis in 2023, hitting .295 and walking at the highest clip in his career. He also owns a career-high slugging percentage of .527. Defensively, his receiving and blocking have improved, although his arm has not been a weapon to this point when it comes to controlling the running game. In 2023, he has caught only 6 of 38 base stealers.
Although Herrera is not as highly regarded of a prospect as he once was, he remains a good bet to at least make it as a Major League backup or low-end regular. I also believe he is one of the best trade pieces the Cardinals possess, and he could be more valuable to another team than he is to the Cardinals. But if the team decides to hold on to Herrera, he could become the Cardinals' primary backup in 2024.
Max Rajcic, RHP
The control artist known as Max Rajcic was a sixth-round pick in 2022 out of UCLA. In Single-A Palm Beach this season, Rajcic has pitched to a minuscule 2.04 ERA while walking a microscopic 1.4 batters per nine innings. Against him, batters are hitting only .171.
Rajcic's FIP is only marginally higher than his ERA, at 2.79, and he has 45 whiffs in 39.2 innings. While he likely isn't going to overpower hitters with strikeout stuff at higher levels, the Cardinals are used to that sort of approach with their pitchers. At 21 years old, Rajcic still has time to further develop his arsenal, and he could be a cog in the Cardinals' rotation a few years down the line.
Victor Scott II, OF
Victor Scott is a blazing-fast runner whom the Cardinals took in round five of the 2022 draft. While he wasn't impressive last season, hitting only .222, he has turned a corner at the plate this year in High-A Peoria with an average of .271 and six triples, which is tied for second in the minor leagues. But the attention-grabber is his stolen bases: Scott has swiped 35 bags this year and has only been thrown out five times.
Scott is also a strong defensive center fielder and could give the Cardinals an option there in upcoming years if Dylan Carlson and/or Tyler O'Neill are dealt. With his top-of-the-scale wheels, Scott should provide excitement on the basepaths with the Cardinals soon, especially if he continues to hit.
Faltering prospects
Joshua Baez, OF
After the Cardinals hit a home run with their 2020 first-round pick in Jordan Walker, they took another mighty cut in round two in 2021, drafting another power threat in Joshua Baez. Unlike Walker, however, Baez has not found much success in the minor leagues. He is currently hitting .202 with Palm Beach and slugging .382, far below what was expected of him.
Baez's most worrying stat is his 37.1% strikeout rate, combined with a career-low 9.5% walk rate. His pop-up rate is a ghastly 33.3%. Baez is only 19 and still has a lot of time on his side, but so far, he is a reminder that high school power hitters fail in professional baseball far more often than they succeed.
Connor Thomas, LHP
Connor Thomas was a fifth-round pick in 2019, and while he initially showed promise in Memphis in 2021, he has not found success since then. Thomas has a 5.55 ERA in 2023, and he has allowed 86 hits in only 58.1 innings. Opponents are hitting .337 off of him, and he is inducing fewer ground balls than in years past. Thomas also lacks strikeout stuff, with 41 induced K's this season.
Thomas is 25, so he needs to turn it around quickly if he wants a chance to be a bullpen piece for the Cardinals. Left-handers are usually given more leeway and chances to succeed, but Thomas might be running out of rope.
The players in these two categories are going in different directions in their careers, but the unpredictability of baseball makes it impossible to know what's down the road. Development is not linear, so it's not advisable to get too high or too low on minor league players. In time, all will be revealed.