3 reasons why the Cardinals need to sign Jordan Walker to this extension right now

3 reasons why Jordan Walker should be offered an extension by the Cardinals like the one Corbin Carroll just signed

The St. Louis Cardinals entered Spring Training with hopes that Jordan Walker would make it difficult for them to send him to Triple-A Memphis to start the year. He has since blown away any expectations someone could have for him and has all but guaranteed a spot for himself on the Opening Day roster.

Like all top prospects looking to make a club's Opening Day roster, Walker's service time and potential manipulation of that has become a huge talking point amongst fans trying to speculate what the organization will do with him. If I were the Cardinals' front office, I'd end that entire discussion today like the Arizona Diamondbacks did with another consensual top prospect, Corbin Carroll.

Carroll, who most scouting outlets have as either the #1 or #2 prospect in all of baseball, has just 115 MLB plate appearances to his name after making his debut at the end of the 2022 season, just signed an eight-year, $111 million contract with the Diamondbacks that has a team option for a ninth year. While some may find a move like that to be extremely risky and unwise, it's a strategy many of the best front offices are taking these days.

Michael Harris II signed an eight-year, $72 million extension with the Braves after just 81 days of service time last season. Julio Rodriguez got a seven-year, $120 million deal with options that could make the deal as large as $470 million over ten more seasons. Maybe the most comparable is Luis Robert's extension with the White Sox, which ended up being a six-year, $50 million contract with two club options that could take it up to $88 million.

So why would the Cardinals entertain such a deal with Walker before Opening Day or shortly after? Here are some reasons why I think the Cardinals should pursue a Walker extension as soon as possible.

It has some risk, but a very high reward that outweighs that

Let's take a look at the Corbin Carroll deal for a moment. On the surface, it seems like a ton of money for someone who has barely skinned his teeth at the Major League level, but when you break down the deal year to year, it makes a ton of sense. NBC Sports reported the terms of the contract here.

Carroll gets a $5 million signing bonus and salaries of $1 million this year, $3 million in 2024 and $5 million in 2025. He receives $10 million in 2026, $12 million in 2027, $14 million in 2028 – the three seasons he likely would have been eligible for arbitration. Carroll’s deal calls for $28 million a year in both 2029 and 2030, years after he was in line to become a free agent. The Braves’ 2031 option is for $28 million with a $5 million buyout. If he wins an MVP award in any year from 2028-30, his salaries for every following season would escalate by $5 million. If he finishes second through fifth in MVP voting those years, his salaries in remaining seasons would go up by $2.5 million. The maximum increase in any year is $7.5 million...Carroll could earn $134M over 9 years.

Basically, Carroll is getting a pay bump in his pre-arbitration and arbitration years, but not by a ton. If Carroll is the player they think he'll be, $10 million, $12 million, and $14 million are pretty realistic arbitration numbers, and actually, they are likely less than what he would have made if he's the top-end player they hope. So even if he doesn't live up to all expectations, it's still a good deal during those years.

They did get to buy out two years of free agency in this thought at $28 million per season, with a club option for another year at that price. Carroll will be in his age 28-30 seasons during that stretch, meaning he'd likely be signing a mega-deal in the $35-$40 million per year range. With the way contracts are continuing to rise though, that may be more like $50 million per year by the time he hits free agency.

So yes, Arizona is taking on risk in this deal, but not so much that St. Louis and other clubs should be avoiding this. Where these early extensions tend to go wrong is when they are given to players who seem to have overperformed expectations and/or do not have a high ceiling. In the case of Carroll and Walker, both of these players have ceilings of top-10 players in all of baseball.

St. Louis should jump at the chance to lock up Walker long-term for this very reason. They may have one of the best, most exciting young players on their hands, and the longer they wait to commit to him long-term, the larger of a contract it will take. You could argue that they take on more risk here, but oftentimes, these players end up looking back at these early extensions and seeing that they could have made way more money had they waited.

Walker is already drawing comparisons to players like Fernando Tatis Jr., not because of their personalities, but because of the potential Walker has to take the league by storm. While I'll talk more about Walker's character and personality in a bit, another reason why I think this extension makes a ton of sense is the future clarity it gives to St. Louis.

Jordan Walker has the character and personality to handle a long-term commitment so early

Yes, there are some cases where these mega-deals to young players go sideways. While I am confident that Tatis Jr. will remain a star in the league, his actions over the last few seasons have brought into question his mega-extension for many. But when you look at the list of players who got really big extensions at such a young age, you can see a correlation between the success of the deal and something beyond their talent on the field: their character.

By all accounts, no matter who you talk to within the Cardinals organization or those who have gotten to cover Walker, the 20-year-old is wise beyond his years and has the maturity needed to succeed in today's game. Walker is one of the last people you'd ever expect to get into any kind of trouble. He's the kind of player who just loves to play baseball and is going to work day in and day out to be the best he can be, no matter what his contract status is.

Something to note with him getting a deal so early too. This isn't a case of a 31-year-old getting a ten-year mega deal and having to worry about his motivation when he hits his late 30s. Say Walker gets even an 8-year deal, he'd be in line for another massive deal after this contract if he continues to work hard and produces during these years. Having that next carrot on the stick is helpful motivation for any player, even one like Walker who really doesn't need it.

If I were in the front office, I'd love to get Walker locked up sooner rather than later. If that's midseason or after the 2023 campaign, that makes sense too. Walker is on the cusp of stardom, and I'd get out ahead of any contracts before that number rises significantly.