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3 pending free agents the St. Louis Cardinals should avoid
The desperate need for pitching is going to be the mindset for the Cardinals' front office this winter, but which free agents should they steer away from?
Some Cardinal fans are already looking ahead to the 2024 offseason to see what the front office does to improve the team so that this season is never seen to be repeated again. And everybody around the Cardinals knows that the top priority is without a doubt addressing the pitching.
President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak said after the Trade Deadline that they will be looking to pursue three starting pitchers in the offseason. That would put the Cardinals in the thick of basically every starting pitcher that is going to be on the market.
A statement like that also makes you wonder will guys like Zack Thompson, Dakota Hudson, and Matthew Liberatore be the odd men out of a rotation spot regardless of how they perform for the rest of this season. Adding that many starters could turn out to be a good thing or a bad thing, it depends on how the Cardinals plan to approach it.
The market for starting pitching this winter is expected to be a strong one, rumors have been swirling about who the Cardinals could target. It was reported by Bob Nightengale of USA Today that the Cardinals have a "wish list" of starters they will go after, and there is one pitcher on that list that I think the Cardinals should stay away from in free agency. Alongside that name, there are a few other arms that St. Louis should be wary of this offseason.
Here are three free agents the Cardinals should avoid this offseason
1. Philadelphia Phillies right hander Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola has been a dependable pitcher for almost a decade with the Phillies organization, but he will be hitting free agency after this season and he should get a lot of suitors.
No doubt there are some positives with Nola, he has always been an innings eater who takes the ball every 5th day and gives his team a chance to win. And despite not throwing with a lot of velocity, he is on pace to have his 8th consecutive season with a K/9 rate above 9. Here is where I begin to worry about the Cardinals getting Nola.
In the last 3 seasons, Nola has a combined ERA over 4, and in this season specifically, he has allowed 29 home runs, already a career-high with a month left in the season, and adding that to a career-low ground ball rate is concerning. Last season, Nola had the lowest BB/9 rate in baseball, but this year it has gone back up to about where he's been in his career (career 2.4 BB/9). And as I mentioned before with his ability to strike hitters out, he's still averaging over a K an inning this year, but he is on pace to have his lowest K/9 since 2015.
Some may think that the elevated ERA and the home runs allowed are because he pitches half his games at Citizens Bank Ballpark in Philadelphia, known to be a hitters-friendly ballpark, but he's actually pitched much better at home in his career. Nola is 50-27 with a 3.18 ERA at Citizens Bank, and in every other ballpark he's 40-43 with a 4.20 ERA, those are significant splits, maybe he's just more comfortable pitching in the " friendly confines ". But I think the Cardinals can go for a younger more controllable starter that is more likely to switch teams this winter.
2. Texas Rangers left hander Andrew Heaney
Heaney will not get the most attention when it comes to free-agent starters, but some teams might see him as a veteran arm who can pitch at the bottom of the rotation and give his team quality innings.
There is no guarantee that Heaney will be a free agent as he has a player option, which means he has the option to apply an extra year to his contract, or deny the option and become an unrestricted free agent. So assuming that Heaney will be a free agent this winter, I think the Cardinals should tread lightly.
2023 has been an up-and-down year for Heaney, going 9-6 with a 4.16 ERA and a 105 ERA+ with Texas. He's like Nola in that he has high strikeout numbers in his career ( career 9.6 K/9) but his problem has been staying on the field.
Six times since Spring Training in 2018 he has been on the injured list with arm troubles. He has stayed healthy this season though, and if he stays healthy this will only be his 3rd season where he's recorded at least 30 starts. I think it would be too big a risk even if it was a shorter deal, if the Cardinals want to go after a lower-risk, higher-reward lefty, there is Julio Urias and ex-Cardinal Jordan Montgomery that the Cardinals could easily target.
3. Los Angeles Angels two way star Shohei Ohtani
Ohtani might be the most attractive free agent in the history of the sport. He is one of the best pitchers and one of the best hitters in baseball, truly a once-in-a-lifetime superstar. The Cardinals may not have been one of the favorites to land Ohtani anyway, but now with the disappointing fact that he might need to have UCL surgery again on his pitching arm, the Cardinals shouldn't pursue him.
Many believe the realistic possibility of landing Ohtani was minuscule to begin with, but since the Cards don't need another DH on the roster, it's hard to pass on someone with as much talent as Ohtani, but the Cardinals will have to.
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It may be easier for the Front Office to move on than it will be for the fan base, as they have shown over the years they are very deliberate with where they throw their money around. When it comes to offering big contracts, the Cardinals have done so on several occasions, but most of the time they have fallen short. The same would've likely occurred with Ohtani but since the team is currently in need of an arm more than his bat, the Cardinals should stay out of this bidding war for now.