3 new trade ideas the Cardinals could propose for Rays' Tyler Glasnow

With the St. Louis Cardinals in desperate need of front-line starting pitching, Tampa Bay Rays' right-hander Tyler Glasnow remains an appealing option for them.

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has reported the Cardinals' heavy interest in Glasnow (subscription required) and with the number of teams who are going to be in the bidding for the top free-agent starting pitchers, the Cardinals may find Glasnow to be one of the best options that they could pursue.

Most people are well aware of Glasnow's injury history, but I'm not sure people realize how truly elite his stuff is on the mound. Out of all pitchers who threw 120 innings in 2023, Glasnow ranked first in xFIP (2.75), second in K% (33.4%), K-BB% (25.8%), and SIERA (3.08), third in FIP (2.91), and seventh in batting average against (.208). It's hard to argue against him being the most dominant pitcher in baseball when he was on the mound.

Yes, I get it, when he's on the mound is the big if with Glasnow. If you were asking me if the Cardinals should hand out a five-year mega deal to him or trade their best young bats for him, this would be a whole different conversation. But frankly, the price to acquire Glasnow appears to be insanely cheap, and I see no reason why the Cardinals should not be first in line for Glasnow's services this offseason.

First, Glasnow offers the highest upside of any starting pitcher available this offseason, aside from maybe Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Glasnow's stuff is that of a Cy Young winner, and if he can put together close to 30 starts for the first time in his career, then I have no doubt he'll be in the running for it. The Cardinals need someone of his caliber in their rotation.

Second, as I said, the cost to acquire Glasnow is going to be stupidly cheap. He's one year away from free agency, his contract is $25 million for 2024, and that injury history is real. The Rays can't ask for the moon for Glasnow, but it makes all of the sense in the world for them to let go of their often-injured ace to recoup value.

Speaking of recouping value, the third reason the Cardinals should prioritize Glasnow is centered around how easy it would be for them to recoup value from him. No matter how the 2024 season goes for Glasnow, they could attach a qualifying offer to him after the season, and if he signs elsewhere, the Cardinals will get draft pick compensation. If he accepts the qualifying offer, then they have Glasnow on a one-year, $20 million deal, which is exactly the kind of deal you would want to give to a guy like Glasnow. And if things go well in 2024 for both sides, they can always explore an extension, which would make any of these packages even more worthwhile to part with for St. Louis.

About a month ago, I put together five trade packages for Glasnow, but since the offseason has begun to unfold, I've evolved in my thinking regarding what the Cardinals would need to offer to acquire the Rays' right-hander. Here are three new deals I would send to the Rays if I were the Cardinals.

Trade #2

Cardinals receive: RHP Tyler Glasnow

Rays receive: UTL Tommy Edman

Back in October, I had both Tommy Edman and Juan Yepez as one of my packages for Glasnow, but I think a straight swap actually makes more sense, and I could argue the Rays should eat money here as well.

The Rays, even with Wander Franco's future looking bleak, still have plenty of top prospects who are middle infielders. But having a guy like Edman in their infield can give them a stabilizing force as those guys develop, and he can also play a really solid center field for them as well. The Rays value guys who can play all over the diamond, and Edman fits that bill.

In typical Rays fashion, this is also a move toward the future, as Edman is under team control through the 2025 season. He's set to make approximately $6.5 million in arbitration this year according to MLB Trade Rumors, which is a bargain to pay for all of the things Edman can provide Tampa Bay on the field.

From the Cardinals' perspective, losing Edman would be hard, as that's putting a ton of pressure on Masyn Winn to run with the shortstop job, but I think he can handle that. Sprinkle in the face that Donovan can play there in a pinch and Thomas Saggese is knocking on the door of an MLB debut, and I think it's a risk worth taking. As for center field, Lars Nootbaar can start there every day, Dylan Carlson provides depth there, and it's likely that we see Victor Scott II take over out there in the very near future. I interviewed Scott II on my podcast the "Noot News Podcast" recently, and he seems like a guy who's ready to break out in a big way for St. Louis.

Having Edman's salary off the books in this deal means the Cardinals are only bringing in about $18.5 million in added salary in this deal, even without the Rays eating money. I do think it is possible the Rays would need to eat some of that deal to get Edman, which could make the incoming money closer to $15 million. With the Cardinals expected to have about $55 million to spend before non-tenders and trades this offseason, that leaves them with between $36.5 million and $40 million to spend on their other needs, with room for that number to grow by another $10 million to $15 million through other moves.

I'm not going to be quick to trade Edman this offseason, but I also wouldn't let him get in the way of acquiring a top-end pitcher. The goal is to keep as much of the position player talent as possible on this roster, but he is the most expendable out of their regulars from last year, and with Saggese and Scott II coming to St. Louis in the near future, I don't think they need him as badly as some make it out to seem.

Trade #3

Cardinals receive: RHP Tyler Glasnow and $5 million

Rays receive: OF Dylan Carlson and OF Travis Honeyman

I'll be honest, the first two seem like much better fits for both sides compared to this deal, but I really do wonder whether or not the Rays would have a sneaky interest in Dylan Carlson.

Yes, Carlson has been disappointing ever since the 2022 trade deadline, but it's easy to forget how productive he was in 2021, and that he still has the potential to grow as a player in this league. With three years of team control remaining, the Rays get multiple seasons to try and help Carlson fulfill that potential, and if history tells us anything, it's that the Rays know how to unlock former Cardinal outfielders.

Carlson is a switch-hitter who is far superior in hitting from the right side of the plate. Maybe the Rays help him improve as a left-handed hitter or convince him to hit from the right side full-time. He's a former top-20 prospect in baseball and finished third in Rookie of the Year voting in 2021, so the potential for growth is there. Carlson's defense is a major asset as well, as the Rays can play him at all three outfield positions confidently. Even if his struggles against right-handed pitching remain, they still have a great outfield defender who mashes left-handed pitching at a cost-controlled salary.

Carlson could very well become their second-best outfielder in 2024 and regain his path toward being one of the more valuable outfielders in the game. I doubt he's an All-Star in the coming years, but he could be one of those guys who's about as good as you can be without hitting that level. He has the potential to be that, and the Rays may not be able to pass on that.

I have them eating money again here, although I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't or if it was less than that $5 million number. For their troubles, I sent OF Travis Honeyman their way as well, providing the Rays with an intriguing outfielder for the future. I do not see the Rays getting a top prospect for Glasnow, but I'm sure they'd like to gain some prospect depth if the number one trade piece isn't as surefire as a Tommy Edman.

What's most important here for Cardinal fans is what this would mean for St. Louis. All of these deals have the potential to hurt St. Louis in the future, but it's a necessary risk when you consider the potential return here. People talk about the Rays fleecing teams in trades all the time, but this trade is much more like the Blake Snell deal than the Matthew Liberatore one.

When the Rays want to shed salary, it has less to do with their belief in a player and more to do with their ability to pay them long-term. Sure, the Rays are well aware of Glasnow's injury risk, but there is nothing to indicate that his talent is set to decline. Yes, the Rays maximize their guys, but Glasnow is just filthy, something that you can enhance but ultimately cannot teach. And the Cardinals should be improving their pitching tech anyway, so they have to continue to do so and bet on their staff to help Glasnow remain at the top of his game.

When you compare what it will take to get Glasnow in a trade to what it would take to get a Logan Gilbert or Dylan Cease, it's night and day. Both guys would require one of the Cardinals' best young bats with control, plus significant prospect capital. I'll pass on that at all costs unless it's a prospect-heavy package, but honestly, I think the Mariners and White Sox would want at least one of Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, or Lars Nootbaar.

I really hope the Cardinals pull off a deal for Glasnow this offseason, as he has the chance to transform their rotation at such a low cost to acquire.