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3 lessons the St. Louis Cardinals can learn from the Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have cemented themselves as longtime favorites in the National League. How can the Cardinals learn from them?
The Cardinals have had a very active offseason so far. Not many teams have spent more than them in free agency this offseason, but the Los Angeles Dodgers have completely stolen the Sho(w) by spending over one billion on Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, not to mention trading for and extending Tyler Glasnow. With these moves, it doesn't seem likely the Cardinals will be able to compete at the top of the National League anytime soon. The Braves and Dodgers greatly overshadow anybody else. However, there are a few takeaways from the Dodgers' recent moves that the Cardinals can learn from to give them a better chance of advancing to the World Series.
I discussed the repercussions of the Yamamoto contract with fellow contributor Sandy McMillan recently on the Noot News Podcast, and here are some of the main takeaways from that discussion.
Lesson 1: International talent is no longer the "cost-effective" route
Up until the 2023 World Baseball Classic, talent coming from Japan and Korea was one of baseball's best-kept secrets. The Cardinals scored bargains with Miles Mikolas and Kwang Hyun Kim, both of whom headlined solid rotations at cheap prices. Even last year, Kodai Senga signed for an absolute bargain of just 5 years, $75 million with the New York Mets, and finished 7th in Cy Young voting.
However, as soon as Shohei Ohtani struck out Mike Trout to clinch a world championship for Japan, all eyes were on the Japanese pitching market for the 2023 offseason. Of course, Ohtani signed with the Dodgers for 10 years, $700 million but more notably his WBC teammate Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has never thrown a single Major League inning, signed the longest and richest contract for a pitcher ever at 12 years, $325 million.
Shota Imanaga, who has had a solid NPB career but not extraordinary by any means, is also expected to sign a deal north of $80 million. For a pitcher slightly better than the league average in Japan, that is a very hefty price. Instead of getting NPB talent at a discount like the Cardinals did with Miles Mikolas in 2017 (2 years, $15.5 million), overseas talent will now come at a premium.
Lesson 2: Pitching development is key to longterm success
Obviously, the Dodgers have more money than the Cardinals to spend on free-agent pitchers, but that's also because they develop homegrown pitching talent much more effectively than St. Louis. In fact, when looking at the projected rotations on FanGraphs, the Cardinals are paying slightly more for their 2024 starting rotation than the Dodgers. The rotation of Yamamoto, Glasnow, Buehler, Miller, and Sheehan is certainly more desirable than Gray, Mikolas, Gibson, Lynn, and Matz, but three of the Dodgers' five starters are either in arbitration or pre-arb while all of the Cardinals' starters were acquired through free agency.
The Cardinals have had no shortage of touted pitching prospects in recent years, but most if not all of them have fallen flat. Jack Flaherty showed signs of greatness in the second half of 2019 but was never able to recreate that success due to a number of injury problems. Alex Reyes, Michael Wacha, Carlos Martinez, Shelby Miller, and possibly Matthew Liberatore add to a long list of starters who never lived up to their prospect projections.
The Dodgers' starting rotation has been good for years because of their ability to churn out young starters who reach their full potential such as Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, and many others. Their ability to acquire struggling starters and turn them around into All-Star level players such as with Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney also helps keep the cost of their staff low.
The Cardinals have found similar success with older starters such as J.A. Happ, Jon Lester, and Jose Quintana, but still not quite up to par with that of the Dodgers. However, they must not allow their wealth of young starting pitching talent in the farm system to go to waste. Between Tink Hence, Tekoah Roby, Gordon Graceffo, and Cooper Hjerpe, surely a few of them will pan out as top-end MLB starting pitchers, but the Cardinals need to fix their pitching development to guarantee this.
Lesson 3: The Cardinals were smart to set the market early
The contracts the Dodgers handed out to Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and even Tyler Glasnow were significantly above what many experts had predicted entering the offseason. While the present value of Ohtani's contract is significantly less than the $700 million number leads on and could end up being a bargain for LA, the price tag for Yamamoto and Glasnow was much too large for the Cardinals.
If the Cardinals had truly set their sights on Yamamoto, they almost certainly would've missed out as $325 million for 12 years is just too large a commitment for a pitcher with no Major League experience. Being serious contenders for Yamamoto likely would've taken them out of the running for Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn as well. Had Gray waited until after Yamamoto signed, his price would have been significantly higher than the 3-year, $75 million deal he inked with the Cardinals.
If the Cardinals had waited to sign Gray, Gibson, or Lynn, they might've been caught overspending on them or missing out on them entirely. In that case, they would be left scrambling for innings again or being left with less-than-ideal options in Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery, neither of which would've fixed the Cardinals' innings problem.
By setting the market early, the Cardinals ensured they would have enough innings at a cheaper price and gave themselves salary flexibility for the remainder of the offseason. Sure, they didn't sign the flashiest names out there, but Ohtani and Yamamoto would've cost ownership far too much money and were not realistic options at their price point. To contend in the National League next year, the Cardinals do need to add another starter via trade, and signing Gray, Gibson, and Lynn early in the offseason gave them the flexibility to do that.
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