3 concerning Cardinals stats to monitor, and 2 that should encourage fans

Encouraging: 2.57

After a really tough stretch since late May, Sonny Gray has been back to his normal self in his last two starts against the Cubs and Rays, giving him a 2.57 ERA between those two starts.

While small sample sizes are not great measuring sticks, Gray is someone I have an easier time buying back into with just a few great performances because of the kind of pitcher he was earlier this year, the Cy Young candidate he was in 2023, and frankly, how good he's been his entire career.

On the season, Gray's FIP is just 3.01 compared to his 3.65 ERA, and outside of a few bad starts, I'd say he easily feels like a pitcher who should have a 3.01 ERA on the year. Gray is striking out over 10 batters per nine innings this year, and while he'll need a strong finish to the season to truly put up "ace" numbers, I feel confident with him going toe to toe with any pitcher in baseball right now.

The biggest improvement in his game seems to be the effectiveness his sweeper is having on opposing hitters. Gray's sweeper is his best pitch, and while it was good during his "bad stretch", it was not elite like it normally is. In June and July, Gray was getting a whiff on his sweeper 37.8% of the time, allowing a .212 xBA and .390 xSLG. From his first start in April through the end of May and now his most recent starts in August, Gray had a whiff percentage north of 40% and an xBA south of .135.

Gray has had a few blow-up starts this year, so I understand why there are some fans that have been left wanting more from the Cardinals' free-agent acquisition. He'll have a chance to prove he's "back" tonight if he puts up a third straight great start, this time against the Cincinnati Reds. The Cardinals need some players to step up from here on out who consistently turn in top-end performances if they want to make the postseason, and Gray is someone I am betting will do that.

While Erick Fedde has had one good start and one not-so-good start with the Cardinals thus far, the club could receive a huge boost down the stretch if both Gray and Fedde consistently pitch at a high level. For the majority of the season, the Cardinals have had one starter pitching well while the others are average at best, and that's just not a great formula for victory when the offense has been so dissapointing. It all starts with Gray in the rotation, and I believe his last two starts are indicative of the guy we'll see down the stretch.