3 Cardinals who definitely won't get traded before Opening Day and 3 who still could

Alec Burleson could be traded before Opening Day.

Alec Burleson has worked hard to remake himself this offseason. Via workouts and defensive adjustments, Burly hopes to be more prepared defensively in 2024. His bat and underlying metrics back up his placement on the roster, but his lack of defensive prowess historically weakens his case to see a large bulk of innings next year.

St. Louis could capitalize on his relatively stable trade value this offseason. Burly won't get many at-bats next year, and he could fall victim to the same treatment players such as Juan Yepez and Moises Gomez fell victim to. Both of those players were good offensively, but they toiled in AAA or rode the bench in St. Louis, thus lowering their value overall.

If the Cardinals don't trade Alec Burleson soon, his trade value could plummet, and the team would be forced to either trade him for spare parts or non-tender him a contract, similar to what they did with Juan Yepez this offseason.

By himself, Alec Burleson won't bring much back in return, possibly a mid-inning reliever or a prospect in the team's 20-30 range, depending on the organization. However, should he be packaged with another prospect in St. Louis, Burleson could net a decent starting pitcher or top-10 prospect from another organization that is major-league ready.

It's possible Burly becomes another "one that got away" for St. Louis, but his defensive shortcomings paired with his uninspiring introduction to the highest level of baseball assuage some of those concerns.

Steven Matz will start the season in St. Louis.

For a small portion of the offseason, there were rumors that Steven Matz could be traded. After signing three starting pitchers in Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and Sonny Gray, John Mozeliak was awarded some flexibility with trades. A departure of Steven Matz would have removed some uncertainty in health from the starting rotation, and it could have cleared up some space financially given Matz's remaining $24 million on his contract.

However, as the trade market for starting pitchers begins to cool down, and after the Tyler Glasnow blockbuster trade to the Los Angeles Dodgers, it seems more likely that Steven Matz will start 2024 in the St. Louis Cardinals' rotation.

Matz is actually a good starting pitcher...when he's healthy. That's the main issue when it comes to his viability in the 2024 rotation. He has yet to pitch more than 160 innings in a season, and he only pitched 105 innings last year, although eight of his twenty-five appearances were out of the bullpen, thus sacrificing some of his potential innings total.

Given a fully healthy season (160+ innings), Steven Matz could be a 3.0-WAR player, good enough for a #2 or #3 on most staffs. He carries pretty decent injury risks, but his twenty-five appearances last year could be a sign of improving health. It is likely that the Cardinals hold onto Steven Matz for next year. That could change if the season goes awry again, however.

Dylan Carlson could still be traded this offseason.

Dylan Carlson has been toyed with by management and coaches. He was once a top-15 prospect in all of baseball, and he showed flashes of being a true five-tool player in 2021. Since then, Carlson's playing time and position have changed at least a half dozen times.

Carlson is still only twenty-five, and he has three years of team control remaining. With the ascension of Tommy Edman in center, the hype around Jordan Walker and Lars Nootbaar, and the rapid rise of Victor Scott II, Carlson's role on the team becomes more uncertain with every passing week.

By himself, Dylan Carlson could bring back a player like Shane Bieber or Alek Manoah. When packaged with other players or prospects, Carlson's trade value skyrockets. He truly could headline a package, and teams would be quite interested in a young switch-hitting outfielder who can capably play center field. Teams such as the San Diego Padres, Detroit Tigers, and Kansas City Royals could all use a center fielder especially someone as young, cheap, and controllable as Dylan is.

Carlson is a career-average hitter with a 99 OPS+, but his defense grades out as slightly above average. He most recently agreed to a one-year, $2.35 million deal through arbitration, so he is still cheap and controllable.

It would be tough to see Dylan Carlson depart, but in the right package, a trade of the former top prospect before Opening Day would make sense for the Cardinals.

Andre Pallante will remain a key bullpen fixture in 2024 for St. Louis.

Andre Pallante has been putting in plenty of work this offseason. He has added a "death ball" to his repertoire, and recent videos show him working on a nasty sweeper. Pallante, twenty-five, has been mentioned by name to be in the back end of the Cardinals' bullpen for 2024.

Andre Pallante was great in 2022; he pitched 108 innings (ten starts, forty-seven total appearances), and he finished the year with a 3.17 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 1.417 WHIP, and an ERA+ of 123, meaning he was 23% better than the average pitcher that year. Pallante could have been over worked in his debut, but he showed that he has the ability to pitch in both high-leverage situations and for multiple innings at a time.

Last year was a bit of a different story for the right-handed reliever. He was used solely out of the bullpen in sixty-two games, and he finished the year with a 4.76 ERA, 4.59 FIP, and 1.559 WHIP. His fastball usage increased, and batters began mashing his slider, formerly his best pitch, for a .341 batting average against.

By modifying his curveball to a death ball and adding a sweeper, Pallante hopes to solve the issues that his curveball and slider created for him last year. Andre Pallante is still quite young, and he looks to be a key player late in games for the Cardinals. Young, reliable relievers don't grow on trees; John Mozeliak should hold onto Andre Pallante for the time being.

Matthew Liberatore is a trade candidate before Opening Day.

Matthew Liberatore may always be known in Cardinal fan circles as the prospect St. Louis got in exchange for Randy Arozarena. Liberatore, once a top left-handed pitching prospect in all of baseball, has fallen mightily from those heights. He simply hasn't been able to translate strong minor-league numbers to even decent major-league numbers.

The tall lefty features a strong fastball with decent velocity and a big 12-to-6 curveball that can be a good strikeout pitch. His curveball had decent whiff rates last year (33.8%), but it was his worst offering by run value according to Baseball Savant.

In ninety-six innings in the majors, Libby has a 5.51 ERA and he has walked nearly 10% of the batters he has faced. His ERA in the minors is below 4.00, and he has strikeout rates north of 23% in Memphis for his career. It is baffling to see such a large discrepancy between a player's minor league stats and his major league stats regardless of his former prospect status.

Liberatore stands to be in the bullpen for next year but after the addition of Andrew Kittredge and the reports that John Mozeliak could add another bullpen arm, Libby's spot in the lineup is questionable. He has some trade value, and he could net a team's #15-#20 prospect in return, so trading him won't be for naught.