3 Cardinals prospects who should not get a September call-up

As the season winds down for teams with no real chance of making the postseason, taking a look at players who could be part of their future success makes sense a lot of the time, but not all the time.

Is there a Triple-A player knocking down the door, all but demanding a big-league opportunity with his performance? Sure, bring him up. Did the team trade away a starter, and now they need someone to fill in, even if they're not quite ready? Hey, let's see what the kid can do. He can always go back to the minors next year to work on his development some more.

But is this always the right move? Not necessarily. Maybe a prospect really isn't ready to make the leap to the majors, and there is the risk of hurting his confidence by allowing him to fail on the game's biggest stage. Getting rushed and flopping can't feel good, and it's possible that performance has a lingering effect on his game.

Service time manipulation has been an issue for a long time, and while it's different under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, it might be better and worse at the same time. Perhaps a minor league player is showing he's ready for a late-season call-up, but the team doesn't want him to get on a jump on his service clock, with the plan being to keep him in the minors until mid-April next year when they'll lock in a seventh year of control.

And then there are Rookie of the Year considerations. A player who spends more than 45 days on the active roster, exceeds 130 at-bats (not plate appearances), or tops more than 50 innings pitched loses rookie eligibility. Teams now are incentivized to start their best prospects on Opening Day, since a top-100 prospect who spends a full-service year (172 of 182 days) on the major league roster and finish in the top three in ROY voting earns his team an extra draft pick after the first round.

All of these factors have to be considered when deciding the proper time to call up players. And for St. Louis, things shake out such that a few players should not see Busch Stadium before 2024.

Here are three prospects that should not receive a September call-up from the Cardinals

Masyn Winn

The Cardinals thinned out their middle-infield logjam with the trade of Paul DeJong to the Blue Jays, one of three deals this season between St. Louis and Toronto. This move left Tommy Edman as the primary shortstop and cemented Nolan Gorman as the everyday second baseman. Of course, few players are truly "everyday" players, so Brendan Donovan (when healthy) and Taylor Motter are available to provide rest when Edman and Gorman need it.

Masyn Winn is tearing it up at Triple-A Memphis this year. Through August 11, he was hitting .286/.356/.467 with 17 home runs, an equal number of stolen bases, and 94 runs scored in 101 games. This 21-year-old prospect is ready to shed that label and replace it with "major leaguer."

But is bringing Winn to The Show the correct move for the Cardinals? The benefits are exposure to the highest level to get him ready for next season and some excitement for the fans in this down season.

The drawbacks are the risk of interrupting a strong season one rung below the majors, either by poor performance or by allowing Winn to sit on the bench too much, getting a taste of the big league environment but not enough on-field action. After all, Edman and Gorman do need to continue to play a lot.

The service time issues of 45 days or 130 ABs are easy enough for the Cardinals to control. The ROY potential for next season is more difficult to gauge. Is there any guarantee Winn will finish in the top three of ROY voting? Of course not. Sure, he looks great now, but lots of things can affect how a youngster plays when he first reaches the majors.

The most likely scenario for St. Louis is to keep Winn in Memphis all of 2023 and start him there to begin the 2024 campaign, with Winn likely to reach the majors around Tax Day of next season. It's probably not fair, and it might not even be prudent if he does earn a top-three ROY finish.

However, the benefit of a draft pick around No. 35 probably doesn't outweigh locking in the risk of losing Winn a year earlier than the CBA permits. I expect the typically conservative Cardinals to play it that way, all but ensuring control over Winn through the 2030 season.

Luken Baker

As this article was percolating, the Cardinals put Dylan Carlson on the injured list and once again promoted Luken Baker. In his first seven major league games, the 6' 4", 280-lb. Baker has a modest .263/.300/.263 line with two runs scored and zero homers or RBI and just one walk against eight strikeouts. But that's over 20 plate appearances spread across seven games, not nearly enough opportunities to properly reflect his skills.

Looking at Baker's Triple-A numbers tells a far different story. In 84 games with Memphis, the first-base behemoth has blasted 33 home runs, driven in 98 runs, and scored 71 times. A stellar 59:76 BB:K ratio has contributed to a .439 on-base percentage, and his .720 slugging percentage is monstrous, leading to a 1.159 OPS.

Triple-A numbers this year have to be taken with a grain of salt because the overall offensive environment at that level is sky-high. That being said, Baker is leading the International League in homers by five, RBI by a whopping 18, SLG by 83 points, and OPS by 156 points. Simply put, he's destroying baseballs on a regular basis.

So why doesn't it make sense for Baker to be with the Cardinals for the rest of this season? Well, based on what's transpired so far this year, he's not going to play.

Baker first was called up on June 4, starting both that day and the following, going 3-for-8 with four strikeouts. He then rode the pine for five days, started again on June 10, pinch-hit on June 13, and was optioned back to the minors on June 19. Called back up on July 3, Baker started that day and pinch-hit in the next two games before sitting on the bench through the All-Star break before being optioned to Memphis once again on July 16.

Baker didn't start Saturday upon being recalled for the third time, and even with Carlson out, it's unclear where playing time will come from. Paul Goldschmidt plays just about every day at first base, and if he doesn't, he often is the designated hitter. When he was the DH Friday night, Alec Burleson got the start at first base, and with that half-day break, Goldschmidt most likely is locked in at 1B every day for another week or so.

If Baker isn't going to play for the Cardinals, he should go back to playing every day for the Redbirds. It's better for his development, which is a greater benefit to everyone in both the short and long term.

There's a good chance Baker will be the starting first baseman in St. Louis in 2025. Continuing to get him daily work now is the best way to optimize that plan. It's certainly better than having Baker watch from the bench and do nothing for long stretches with the Cardinals the rest of this season.