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3 Cardinals players who have been disappointing, 2 who have been pleasant surprises
While the St. Louis Cardinals have shown some signs of life lately, it is fair to say that the 2023 season has been a colossal disappointment. Being in last place at the moment in one of the worst divisions in baseball is not where Cardinals fans thought the team would be as the All-Star break approaches.
In fairness to all those involved, a chunk of this is due to some "bad luck" in the statistical sense. As of writing this on June 28, the Cardinals' run differential sits at -14. While that is far from good, the team's expected record based off of that is 38-40 and the team's actual record is a full five games worse than that.
This also isn't a team that has been bad across the board with their stating pitching being the biggest offender in 2023. The Cardinals still have five hitters (Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan, and Lars Nootbaar) that all have wRC+ north of 110 which is a pretty good spot to be in offensively.
However, it can't be ignored that at the end of the day, the Cardinals are who their record says they are. So now we need to look at who has fallen short of the expectations that were placed on them as well as acknowledging those who have been surprisingly good to keep things from being too depressing.
Who have been the biggest surprises and disappointments for the Cardinals this season?
The goal here isn't just to highlight the best and worst players on the Cardinals in 2023 because context does matter here. Some of the following guys were guys that had track records/salaries that meant they were expected to big time contributors. Others are lesser known guys that have really stepped up. Here is a look a the biggest disappointments and pleasant surprises for the Cardinals in 2023.
Willson Contreras has been a disappointment for the Cardinals in 2023
Yeah, we all knew this one was coming. Willson Contreras was the Cardinals' marquee move last offseason when the team decided to sign him to a five year deal worth $87.5 million. The rationale here was very sound. Yadier Molina finally retired and the Cardinals wanted a catcher that could absorb that loss both offensively as well as at a defensive position that is very difficult to find quality players to play. Contreras may not have the same defensive pedigree that Yadi had because, well, no one has that. However, he was still a three-time All-Star with the Cubs who could hit, had some power, and the Cardinals were very familiar with.
Sadly, that is not how things have worked out so far. We'll start with the offense and it isn't pretty. Contreras has posted career lows so far in most offensive categories in his first season with the Cardinals including a .217/.303/.374 line with eight homers through 71 games. Again, not exactly what the Cardinals were hoping for from a guy they committed $10 million for 2023 and then $18 million+ for the next four seasons after that.
The news gets worse defensively. While Contreras has graded out as "okay" behind the plate when looking at Fangraphs' defensive rating, his framing has been pretty abysmal. In fact, his preparation and prowess behind the plate was so questioned that it caused a heap of drama between the Cardinals' pitching staff, manager Oliver Marmol, and Contreras including a brief move to DH. Things seem to have settled down since then, but the results have still been pretty poor.
Jordan Montgomery has been one of the few Cardinals pitchers that has done his job
On the bright side, Jordan Montgomery has been a nice silver lining for a Cardinals pitching staff that has really needed one. The Cardinals' rotation ranks just 17th in all of MLB in fWAR and their team starting pitching ERA of 4.81 is 23rd in the league as of now.
However, one cannot fault Montgomery for those numbers. Through 16 starts this season, Jordan has posted a 3.53 ERA and 3.50 FIP with a 8.33 K/9 and very low 2.25 BB/9. By fWAR, he has been the eighth best starting pitcher in the National League in 2023, so hats off to him for doing his job.
Montgomery is known to Cardinals' fans, but hasn't been mentioned enough nationally for the work he has done. One hopes that he and the Cardinals can find a way for him to stick around, but he is slated to become a free agent after this season as things stand now.
Tyler O'Neill has been a colossal bust for the Cardinals in 2023
It isn't particularly fair to put a guy who is injured on blast, but Tyler O'Neill's case is a weird one and also one that may just be the Cardinals fault. O'Neill is an excellent offensive player when he is healthy, but the issue has been that he has perennially dealt with injuries. Issues with his shoulder and hamstrings have kept him out in the past and he is currently on the injured list with a lower back strain.
Things seem to have come to a head with O'Neill and the Cardinals when Marmol called O'Neill out for what he considered to be a lack of hustle. By most accounts, O'Neill wants out of St. Louis at this point and he seems like a prime candidate to get traded by the deadline whether or not the Cardinals are buyers or sellers. That is a pretty rough situation for a guy that was expected to help make up the core of the Cardinals' offense in the coming years.
Chris Stratton has made real strides for the Cardinals in 2023
We have to give relievers love when we can and Chris Stratton is our guy here. Unlike the rotation, the bullpen has done really well for itself this year as a top 10 unit in all of baseball and a big reason why has been the play of Stratton (although Ryan Helsey being awesome has certainly helped...but we already knew that).
In his 27 appearances this season, Stratton's 4.30 ERA doesn't exactly stick out. However, his FIP has beem MUCH lower at 3.04 which seems to indicate some bad luck on balls in play. His strikeout rate is right in line with his career norms at 9.56 K/9, but he has made huge strides with his walk rate as that is way down to 2.39 BB/9. While he is a free agent after this season, this is a bullpen arm St. Louis should absolutely look to bring back.
Jack Flaherty has been pretty disappointing with the Cardinals this season
Finally, we come to Jack Flaherty as our final disappointment. It wasn't that long ago when it looked like Flaherty was set to become an ace for the Cardinals for a long time. His 2019 season (especially the second half) was the stuff that dreams are made of. Unfortunately, that is now how things have played out the last few seasons.
Issues with his shoulder in 2021 and 2022 cost him a bunch of playing time and while the hope was that he had put those problems behind him, the 2023 season has not gone well. In 15 starts this season, Flaherty has posted a 4.95 ERA which is his worst mark since his rookie season. He is walking way too many batters at 4.95 BB/9 and while the strikeouts are still there for the most part, Flaherty has looked like a shadow of his former self. That stinks for him because he is about to hit free agency this offseason and he could end up getting traded at the deadline this year.
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