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2 ways the Lucas Giolito trade will help the Cardinals cash in at the trade deadline
The Angels struck big on the trade market last night and the Cardinals have to be thrilled about it.
Late last night, the Angels and White Sox surprised pretty much everybody by hooking up in a trade that sent Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez to LA for two of their better prospects. Normally a trade for a rental starter and rental reliever wouldn't matter a ton to the St. Louis Cardinals, but this particular move is a little different.
The Angels have been the wild card at this trade deadline for a while now. The fate of Shohei Ohtani has been the talk of the industry for months with many wondering if the Angels were actually going to trade Shohei away given the Angels struggling to stay in contention and the seeming unlikelihood that he was going to come back to the Angels after this season.
Instead, the Angels decided to make one final push for a playoff appearance with Trout and Ohtani in the fold and to try and convince Shohei to stay. It is hard not to respect the attempt as teams don't get two generational players on their roster very often and no one wants to be known as the team that traded away a generational talent like Ohtani. It may not work, but you have to respect the hustle.
Here are the 2 ways the Lucas Giolito trade will help the Cardinals cash in at the trade deadline
Fortunately for the Cardinals, the Angels' decision to keep Ohtani and go for it in 2023 is a big boon to St. Louis. It was already a seller's market to be sure, but the specific dynamics and details of how the White Sox/Angels deal went down plays right into St. Louis' hands.
Let's take a look at how last night's trade will be a boon to the Cardinals.
The price for the St Louis Cardinals' rentals just went up
As much as teams want to get top dollar for their players on trade market, the reality of trading the types of guys St. Louis will mostly be making available (specifically pending free agents) makes that incredibly difficult.
Players who are about to hit free agency only come with a couple months of team control which limits their value to other teams and the Cardinals have very little leverage in negotiations beyond market demand. You can't exactly just threaten to keep a player when everyone knows you need to move them during a lost season and risk getting nothing out of them.
However, this trade market was already looking pretty strong for rentals like Jordan Montgomery, Jordan Hicks, Chris Stratton, and even Jack Flaherty. There was already a lack of sellers at the deadline this year and contending teams were looking pretty desperate for ways to add roster depth especially on the pitching side without having to trade half their farm system.
What the Giolito deal did that helped the Cardinals' position even more is increase the prices for rentals even further. While the Angels' farm system isn't anything to write home about, the two prospects they gave up, Edgar Quero and Ky Bush, were two of their top three prospects with Quero being particularly highly regarded. These are usually not the types of guys that are thrown in trades for rentals at the deadline.
For the Cardinals, that puts them in a great position as they have a starting pitcher of comparable quality to Giolito in Jordan Montgomery as well as relievers who are arguably better than Lopez in Hicks and Stratton potentially available. When teams call asking about those guys, the Cardinals are going to point to the White Sox/Angels deal and let them know that they are going to have to pony up.
The Cardinals have another buyer on the trade market
This deadline was already a market that lacked the supply to meet demand. About half the league has a reasonable argument for being buyers at the deadline with a few other teams having fringe playoff chances as well. There are only a few teams that are surefire sellers this year and the Cardinals are among them.
With the Angels deciding to ignore the fact that their playoff odds aren't the best in a brutal division and AL wild card race and make a strong push for the playoffs, yet another team has been added to the demand side of the equation and it sure doesn't seem like LA is done after last night's move.
Having another aggressive buyer on the market means a couple things for St. Louis. One, the Angels have already decreased the available player supply on the market by snagging including arguably the best starting pitcher rental available in Giolito. Second, it creates another avenue for St. Louis to make deals outside of the Cardinals' division and league which always makes things easier.
Finally, with the seal finally broken and a big deal getting done, the Giolito trade should be the domino that finally starts creating some urgency this trade season. For a while, it has seemed like the entire league was staring at each other waiting for someone to blink. Now that the Angels have struck, teams are having their hands forced and are going to have to start being aggressive sooner than they may have liked.
For a seller like the Cardinals, that means they can start cashing in on contenders' desperation to get a deal done.
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