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2 reasons why the Cardinals could make the postseason and 2 reasons why they will not
It's safe to say that the Cardinals and the Cardinals' fans did not expect to be dead last in the NL in June. The Cardinals started out with an absolutely abysmal April, ending the month 10-18. They bounced back in May, posting a winning record of 15-13, still being 6 games under .500. The Cardinals entered June with high hopes, coming off a two-day rest, and proceeded to get swept in three games by the Pirates. They then lost the first game to one of the best teams in baseball, the Texas Rangers. Is it time for Cardinals fans to be genuinely worried about this team that has made the playoffs for the last four years and may miss the postseason this year?
The position that the Cardinals have put themselves in a situation where the stats do not favor them in making the playoffs, putting them 11 games below the .500 mark. This puts them at a 24.2% chance of making the postseason in 2023. With how poorly the Cardinals have played and being last in the NL, 24.2% can be seen as a significant number to make the postseason. However, there are two reasons why the Cardinals are still in the running for the postseason and two reasons why the Cardinals may clearly be out of the running this year.
At this point, believing in the 2023 Cardinals or giving up on their chances each seem like fair conclusions
Here are two reasons the Cardinals can still make the playoffs, and two reasons why they will fail to do so.
Why There is Still Hope for the Cardinals
The Offense
The Cardinals are undoubtedly one of the best-hitting teams in baseball, and there has been no lack of offense, being 9th in OPS in the entire league. There is no doubt that the team can hit. This team is 9th in OPS even without some of their best hitters, like Nolan Arenado, performing at the level the Cardinals have seen in the past couple of years. Arenado is only on pace for a 2 WAR this year, compared to the 7.9 fWAR we have seen in the past. Along with the Cardinals having the 2nd highest hard-hit percentage in the entire MLB, it almost seems that the baseball gods are not on their side this year.
The Cardinals always knew that the offense would be able to win games for the club single-handedly, and this is one of the reasons that the Cardinals should consider themselves still in the running this year. The pitching has been on a positive incline as Miles Mikolas seems to have figured out his stuff, posting a solid 1.93 ERA in May compared to April. Along with Jack Flaherty having strong starts, if the Cardinals are able to acquire pitching at the deadline, there is simply no way that the team should continue to struggle the way they currently are.
The Awful Division
I believe that one of the reasons the Cardinals' playoff odds are still high is simply because the division in the NL Central is weak. This comes as no surprise to anyone, as the Cardinals are 11 games under .500 and just 8 games back in the division. It could be worse, even though it seems like rock bottom.
The Pirates are currently leading the division, 0.5 games above the Brewers, with a record of 32-27 (I can't believe I'm saying this in June, but it's happening). I think the Pirates will come down to earth soon, as they showed with their terrible May following their historic start in April. It seems to be the Brewers' division to lose at this point, but they are simply not playing their best baseball and are hindered by injuries.
With the NL Central being a toss-up, all the Cardinals need to do is win the games they should and scratch out a couple of series wins. It is very likely that the Cardinals could end up right in the mix after everything is said and done.
Why Things are Looking Bleak for the Cardinals
The Pitching
One of the big eyesores that have been a problem for the Cardinals is simply the starting pitching. The lack of starting pitching depth and the inability to throw more than 6 innings put a huge burden on our bullpen. The Cardinals rank as the 3rd worst team in the league in opponent batting average, with opponents posting a .270 average against the Cardinals. Many analysts and fans had questioned the Cardinals' rotation, and we can see why based on their performance so far this season.
If the Cardinals refuse to make any trade deadline moves and stick with the current rotation, I don't think they can afford to do so. The high averages that teams are putting up against the Cardinals indicate that the rotation is not sufficient enough. In order for the Cardinals to have a chance at contending, they should target pitchers such as Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber, and many others at the deadline. The bottom line is that the Cardinals simply don't have an ace in their pitching staff, and in order to win, they need that ace.
Dug Our Own Grave
The Cardinals may have simply dug their own grave at the beginning of the season with the absolutely putrid start. In order to come back from such a start, we would need an 11-game winning streak just to reach .500 again. Another problem that the Cardinals face is the new MLB schedule, which features fewer games against division teams. This makes it much harder to gain ground and makes these division games even more important.
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I believe the sweep by the Pirates needs to serve as an absolute wake-up call to the Cardinals. Being 8.0 games back in the division and last in the NL is not something that many Cardinals fans and players could have expected this far into the season. I think changes need to be made in order for the Cardinals to escape the quicksand that is slowly consuming their season. Whether these changes involve management or players, I believe it's time for something to be done in order to turn this Cardinals season around for the better.
Next. paitent not patient. 3 Cardinals to be patient with and 2 not to be. dark