2 players the Cardinals should protect from the Rule 5 draft and 2 they should expose

The offseason is upon us, which means trading and signing speculations are in full swing. Often lost in the excitement is the Rule 5 draft, which is taking place on Dec. 6 to conclude the winter meetings. In 2022, the Cardinals took right-handed pitcher Wilking Rodriguez in the Rule 5 draft, but he missed the entire season after undergoing shoulder surgery in early May.

The only player the Cardinals lost in the Rule 5 draft last season was Evan Mendoza, whom the San Diego Padres selected in the minor league phase of the draft. Mendoza hit only .226 across three levels of San Diego's farm system in 2023.

Bleacher Report ranked the Cardinals 12th in its updated list of farm system rankings in September. With a few players eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft this season, the Cardinals will need to decide on whom they want to protect and which players they're willing to risk losing in the draft.

The Rule 5 draft is a way to keep teams from hoarding talent in the minor leagues by allowing organizations to add certain players to their 26-man roster if those players are not on other major league teams' 40-man rosters. These players also need to meet certain other criteria, which are explained here.

An important note in determining which players are eligible to be chosen in the Rule 5 draft is that the canceled 2020 minor league season does not count as an accrued year that would bring the player closer to being exposed in the draft.

These are two players the Cardinals should add to their 40-man roster to avoid the possibility of losing them, as well as two players the team shouldn't bother protecting from the draft.

Protect: Adam Kloffenstein, RHP

Adam Kloffenstein was one of the players the Cardinals acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for Jordan Hicks. (The other player was Sem Robberse.) The Blue Jays drafted Kloffenstein in the third round of the 2018 draft, but he struggled to find consistent success in the minor leagues. In 2022, Kloffenstein had a 5.54 ERA across High-A and Double-A. He improved in 2023 with Toronto and received his first taste of Triple-A after the trade to St. Louis.

Kloffenstein improved to an exceptional 10.62 strikeouts per nine innings in Double-A last season with Toronto, and while he appears to have benefited from some luck in Triple-A Memphis — a strand rate of 90.1% will inflate anyone's stats — he showed some definite potential last season.

Kloffenstein has a sinker and an above-average slider, but it was his newly implemented cut fastball that allowed him to elevate his game in 2023. If Kloffenstein's progress with his new weapon holds up, he could find himself as a back-of-the-rotation starter in St. Louis. The Cardinals should clear a spot on their 40-man roster to keep the 23-year-old Kloffenstein from getting plucked in the Rule 5 draft.

Expose: Kyle Leahy, RHP

Kyle Leahy received a cup of coffee with the Cardinals in 2023 and spilled that coffee all over himself en route to four runs on four hits and five walks in 1.2 innings of work across three appearances. He hadn't shown much success in Triple-A before that, as he had a 6.26 ERA and 11.2 hits per nine innings in Memphis in 2023.

It's fair to question what has made the organization so keen on Leahy to continue promoting him given that his only strong season was in 2019, where a 3.73 ERA propelled him across three levels of the minor leagues. But after batters hammered Leahy to the tune of a .301 average in Memphis last season, it's becoming more apparent that Leahy doesn't have what is required to excel at the upper levels.

There's no reason for the Cardinals to continue trying to make Leahy into major league-caliber pitcher, so he wouldn't be a big loss if a team were to claim him, although it's hard to imagine any team willing to use a Rule 5 pick on Leahy given his poor track record.