2 players the Cardinals should protect from the Rule 5 draft and 2 they should expose

Protect: Adam Kloffenstein, RHP

Adam Kloffenstein was one of the players the Cardinals acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for Jordan Hicks. (The other player was Sem Robberse.) The Blue Jays drafted Kloffenstein in the third round of the 2018 draft, but he struggled to find consistent success in the minor leagues. In 2022, Kloffenstein had a 5.54 ERA across High-A and Double-A. He improved in 2023 with Toronto and received his first taste of Triple-A after the trade to St. Louis.

Kloffenstein improved to an exceptional 10.62 strikeouts per nine innings in Double-A last season with Toronto, and while he appears to have benefited from some luck in Triple-A Memphis — a strand rate of 90.1% will inflate anyone's stats — he showed some definite potential last season.

Kloffenstein has a sinker and an above-average slider, but it was his newly implemented cut fastball that allowed him to elevate his game in 2023. If Kloffenstein's progress with his new weapon holds up, he could find himself as a back-of-the-rotation starter in St. Louis. The Cardinals should clear a spot on their 40-man roster to keep the 23-year-old Kloffenstein from getting plucked in the Rule 5 draft.

Expose: Kyle Leahy, RHP

Kyle Leahy received a cup of coffee with the Cardinals in 2023 and spilled that coffee all over himself en route to four runs on four hits and five walks in 1.2 innings of work across three appearances. He hadn't shown much success in Triple-A before that, as he had a 6.26 ERA and 11.2 hits per nine innings in Memphis in 2023.

It's fair to question what has made the organization so keen on Leahy to continue promoting him given that his only strong season was in 2019, where a 3.73 ERA propelled him across three levels of the minor leagues. But after batters hammered Leahy to the tune of a .301 average in Memphis last season, it's becoming more apparent that Leahy doesn't have what is required to excel at the upper levels.

There's no reason for the Cardinals to continue trying to make Leahy into major league-caliber pitcher, so he wouldn't be a big loss if a team were to claim him, although it's hard to imagine any team willing to use a Rule 5 pick on Leahy given his poor track record.

Protect: Inohan Paniagua, RHP

Inohan Paniagua has conquered Low-A, but High-A has proven more difficult. After breakout seasons with Low-A Palm Beach in 2021 and 2022, Paniagua missed the first three months of the season with a shoulder injury in his second High-A go-around. When he returned, he was mostly the same pitcher as he was in 2022 at that level: He had a 4.13 ERA, and his strikeout rate of 8.3 was just a tick down from the 8.8 mark of 2022.

Unfortunately, Paniagua's walk rate spiked after his return, rising from 3.7 walks per nine innings in 2022 to 5.5 in 2023. However, control is often slow to come back for pitchers after shoulder injuries, and given that Paniagua had never had extreme control troubles before, his walk rates will likely come back down next year.

Paniagua performed better in his 44.1 innings last season than the stats indicate, and his 45.3% ground ball rate was a career high. Assuming he is fully healthy in 2024 and his walks are under control, the signs point to more progress for Paniagua. Although Paniagua is only 23 and a lower-level player, thus being less likely to be taken in the Rule 5 draft than those at higher levels, it would be prudent for the Cardinals to add him to their 40-man roster.

Expose: Pedro Pages, C

A sixth-round pick by the Cardinals in 2019, Pedro Pages hit .267 with a career-high 16 home runs in Double-A in 2023. He is a defensive-minded catcher with a decent arm, but given that the Cardinals seem set at catcher for the foreseeable future, Pages likely won't fit into the Cardinals' plans anytime soon.

With the offensively gifted Willson Contreras likely to be the starting catcher next season, Andrew Knizner and Ivan Herrera will likely battle it out for the backup job. While Contreras has defensive liabilities, Knizner has shown that he capable behind the plate, and he had the best offensive year of his career in 2023. Herrera, meanwhile, opened eyes in his 44 plate appearances with the Cardinals, hitting .297.

There could be a reason for the Cardinals to keep Pages around if Herrera or Knizner is traded this offseason, but given that Jimmy Crooks is knocking on the door to Double-A, Pages has a very small window in which he could make an impact. Pages has performed decently in the minor leagues, but the team's depth at the position makes him likely to be an extra piece at the moment.

The Rule 5 draft is something teams have to keep in the back of their minds when deciding how to construct their rosters, but the Cardinals can afford to trim some of the fat off of their current 40-man roster to make room for these higher-upside pieces while eschewing those with less promise.