10 wildly different trade deadline deals the St. Louis Cardinals could pursue

As the 2024 trade deadline nears, the St. Louis Cardinals are at a crossroads that will be critical for the rest of the season and possibly many years into the future. Whether they go all-in, patch the necessary holes, or sell off expiring assets, the Cardinals have a chance to define the future of this franchise for years to come.

John Mozeliak made it clear at the annual bloggers and podcasters event last weekend that the Cardinals do in fact intend to be buyers at the deadline, but a lot can change between now and July 30. The team could go on a run and contend for the NL Central crown, continue staying in the tight race for a Wild Card spot, or completely fall out of contention. But, as long as they stay in the race, the team intends to contend for a playoff spot and add to the Major League roster.

I discussed some potential trade packages, ranging from aggressive buying moves, smaller trades to add pieces, and even seller moves, with Josh Jacobs and Sandy McMillan on the Dealin' the Cards Podcast this past week, and here are the ten deals we constructed.

The ultra-aggressive buying move

St. Louis Cardinals receive Luis Robert Jr., Garrett Crochet, and John Brebbia. Chicago White Sox receive Jordan Walker, Tink Hence, Sem Robberse, and Victor Scott II.

Given Mozeliak's comments at Blogger Day and the club's history of deals at the deadline, it's highly unlikely that the Cardinals would go all in on a move like this, so the first deal is merely a hypothetical. While fans may want the team to be aggressive and go all in for a World Series title, it does not make sense for the Cardinals to go all in on a season like this barring a miraculous run between now and the trade deadline. The Major League team simply has too many holes and too weak a farm system to risk it all on a massive trade, nor will it happen.

In a major seller's market, a package involving the premier players on the trade block this season in Luis Robert Jr. and Garrett Crochet would cost significantly more than the Cardinals would be willing to part with. While Chicago claims to be asking for a package greater than what the San Diego Padres gave up in exchange for Josh Bell and Juan Soto in 2022, it's unlikely another team will meet that asking price. Nonetheless, the starting point for the Cardinals would be Jordan Walker and Tink Hence.

While Masyn Winn could also be involved in such a trade, it's far more likely unproven but high-upside talent like Sem Robberse and Victor Scott II will be dealt instead. If Winn were involved, the Cardinals would certainly be out of the running as St. Louis will not trade a Rookie of the Year candidate in the middle of a strong season.

All to say, the Cardinals will not be in play for the high-end pieces this deadline like Luis Robert Jr. nor should they. The upside they'd be giving up would be far too great for an injury-prone outfielder and a first-year starting pitcher. If the Cardinals pulled off this trade and failed to make a deep playoff run and the White Sox tapped into the vast potential of this prospect package, it could become one of the greatest trade failures in baseball history.

The conservative buying moves

Here's where John Mozeliak generally operates during the trade deadline. Moves like J.A. Happ, Jon Lester, Jose Quintana, and Jordan Montgomery fall within this range. While most of the aforementioned moves were underwhelming to fans, they all were key pieces in thrusting the Cardinals into playoff contention.

St. Louis Cardinals receive Luis Severino and Harrison Bader. New York Mets receive Sem Robberse, Jonathan Mejia, and Edwin Nunez.

Here's a move with some significant upside. After a career-worst season with the Yankees in 2023, Luis Severino signed a 1-year prove-it deal with the New York Mets. The once prospective Yankees ace of the future has bounced back in a big way so far this season, recording a 3.12 ERA and 3.91 FIP. While Severino may no longer be a viable frontline starter, he'll certainly patch the Cardinals' need for a fifth starter. With the Mets as likely sellers and Severino's status as a rental, he shouldn't command too large a package.

Former Cardinals center fielder Harrison Bader could also provide some much-needed right-handed depth off the bench. With Victor Scott II not being ready for the Major League and the current center field unit of Dylan Carlson and Michael Siani disappointing from an offensive standpoint, a reunion with Bader makes a lot of sense. With Tommy Edman set to return this month, it's doubtful Bader will have a starting role if he returns to St. Louis, but he'll certainly patch the Cardinals' frustratingly bad bench options.

Sem Robberse would be the headliner in this trade, as he's shown significant promise as a starter this season with Triple-A Memphis. Also, Jonathan Mejia and Edwin Nunez are two intriguing young players the Mets can look to to reload their farm system for the future. Ultimately, while the Cardinals will part with exciting young talent, they won't cripple their Minor League depth and have a much better chance of contending in the playoffs with these smaller additions.

St. Louis Cardinals receive Nick Pivetta and Kenley Jansen. Boston Red Sox receive Won-Bin Cho, Jimmy Crooks III, and Connor Thomas.

While the Red Sox have a better record than the Cardinals so far this season, the more competitive American League Wild Card race could cement their role as sellers during this trade deadline rather than buyers. Many of Boston's pitchers have broken out this season, so the future should be bright, but 31-year-old Nick Pivetta is one of their impending free agents.

Pivetta has been a solid starting pitcher throughout his career, and 2024 has been no exception. He's recorded a 3.88 ERA through his first 9 starts and would be a major upgrade to the Cardinals' staff. His 10.7 K/9 rate would be a significant upgrade over every pitcher in the starting rotation other than Sonny Gray, and his ability to give more length than Andre Pallante or Steven Matz would preserve the overworked bullpen.

With a season-ending injury to free agent acquisition Keynan Middleton, the Cardinals will need another right-handed bullpen option this trade deadline to fully cement the pen as a top unit in all of baseball. While Kenley Jansen isn't the same pitcher he once was when he was closing games for the Dodgers, he's taken a step forward from his mediocre performance in 2023. With a 2.74 ERA and 2.10 FIP, Jansen is once again on an All-Star track this year and would be a great option to pair with JoJo Romero and Ryan Helsley.

Jansen is still owed $16 million this season, so the Red Sox would need to send a considerable amount of cash to St. Louis as well. However, the return package containing two extremely intriguing position player prospects in Won-Bin Cho and Jimmy Crooks III should be enough to get a deal done. Lastly, Connor Thomas would be a bonus piece to improve the depth of Boston's starting rotation or bullpen. If the Red Sox don't hope to contend for the Postseason in 2024, parting with Pivetta and Jansen for intriguing prospects is necessary at the deadline.

St. Louis Cardinals receive Justin Lawrence and Jalen Beeks. Colorado Rockies receive Cesar Prieto and Jimmy Crooks III.

While the Mets and Red Sox may not be definitive sellers at this year's deadline yet, the Colorado Rockies certainly will have no hopes of contending in 2024. As the Cardinals look for potential bullpen upgrades, the de-facto Rockies closer Jalen Beeks may be an option they turn to. Though the Cardinals have many quality left-handed options, such as JoJo Romero and John King, adding another arm like Beeks, who's recorded a 122 ERA+ this season, would be another great addition to an already solid relief unit. Bullpen depth is always welcome, as the Cardinals could be one injury away from losing a key piece and needing a new pitcher to step up.

Justin Lawrence would be another worthy addition to a group that needs more right-handed options in high-leverage situations. While he has regressed significantly compared to his great 2023 campaign. However, it's difficult to write him off completely due to the volatile nature of pitchers at Coors Field. His funky delivery and above-average velocity make him a great buy-low candidate at the deadline.

Parting with Cesar Prieto and Jimmy Crooks III, two intriguing but not top-tier prospects, should be enough to finish the deal. Both have upsides, but with a wealth of catching depth, Crooks is redundant in the system. Prieto has also built significant value in the last season, so it may be a prime opportunity to sell high on him. It's an innocent-looking trade that seems inconsequential, but Mozeliak has won along the margins with deals like the JoJo Romero trade. Beeks and Lawrence could be diamonds in the rough, significantly impactful for a playoff push.

St. Louis Cardinals receive Trevor Rogers and Anthony Bender. Miami Marlins receive Luken Baker, Matt Koperniak, and Andre Granillo.

Among the National League, it appears that only the Rockies and Marlins will be clear sellers at the trade deadline. With a continual wealth of arms, pitching development has never been an issue for Miami. However, their current rotation is in shambles after numerous injuries have put the likes of Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera, Eury Perez, and many others on the injured list. The few arms they do have healthy should interest the Cardinals at the deadline.

Trevor Rogers rose to prominence in 2021, finishing second in NL Rookie of the Year voting to Jonathan India, but numerous injuries have prevented him from reaching those heights ever since. With a 5.09 ERA this season in 14 starts, Rogers' value may be at an all-time low. He'd be a solid addition to the back end of the Cardinals' rotation for relatively cheap.

Anthony Bender is another buy-low option for the pitching staff, this time to bolster the Cardinals' bullpen. St. Louis is seeking right-handed relief help as Andrew Kittredge is the only true high-leverage option in front of closer Ryan Helsley. Bender missed the Marlins' 2023 playoff run with an injury but has been effective in both 2021 and 2022. While he's taken a step back this season, he's shown the ability to be a high-leverage reliever in the past and would again be relatively cheap.

The return package includes two intriguing Minor League bats, Luken Baker and Matt Koperniak, who will certainly bolster the Marlins' weak position player core, as well as Andre Granillo, a reliever who has torn up Double-A Springfield and Triple-A Memphis this year. For two flyer players, Trevor Rogers and Anthony Bender, it's not a fantastic package, but it should be more than enough to get the job done.

St. Louis Cardinals receive Jose Quintana. New York Mets receive Matt Svanson, Mike Antico, and Kyle Leahy.

The Cardinals sure love their reunions, don't they? Bringing back Jose Quintana for the remainder of the season seems obvious, assuming the Mets will sell at the trade deadline. He's familiar with the organization and put up arguably the best stretch of his career in the second half of 2022. However, with the Mets' latest winning streak, they may not be as keen to let go of some key players on expiring contracts to make a playoff push.

But, if the Mets do find themselves out of contention at the trade deadline, Jose Quintana will be an under-the-radar piece they will certainly be shopping for. He signed a bigger contract and is not performing at the same level as he did with the 2022 Pirates, so the Cardinals won't need to part with as big a package as they did to acquire Quintana for the first time. He did pitch a gem against the Cardinals, but the 35-year-old veteran has an ERA approaching 5. Matt Svanson and Mike Antico are two interesting but ultimately flyer-level prospects and Kyle Leahy is a serviceable reliever the Mets can add to their bullpen now. Just like in 2022, acquiring Quintana isn't a flashy move, but it could pay dividends in the playoffs.

Pairing Quintana with the acquisition of another starter, just like the Cardinals did in 2022, could be the perfect recipe for success. As the starting pitching depth continues to be tested with Kyle Gibson's back injury and Lance Lynn's recent struggles, adding more veteran stability at a cheaper price point would benefit the team greatly.

St. Louis Cardinals receive Reid Detmers. Los Angeles Angels receive Dylan Carlson, Gordon Graceffo, and Luken Baker.

When Reid Detmers was demoted to Triple-A by the Angels midseason after an abysmal start to his 2024 campaign, many Cardinals fans immediately drew comparison to disappointing outfielder Dylan Carlson. While a one-for-one swap would never happen, as Detmers' control and upside outweigh Carlson's, a framework is in place for a potential trade.

Once a highly touted pitching prospect, Reid Detmers has never quite put it together in Anaheim. It's historically been a difficult environment for starting pitchers to flourish, so a change of scenery may benefit the 24-year-old. The same could be said for Dylan Carlson, who could be the next in line of Cardinals outfielders who failed in St. Louis but flourished elsewhere.

Both of these players' values are at rock bottom as Dylan Carlson is amidst his worst season yet, and Reid Detmers has continued to struggle, even in his Triple-A stint. While the Angels may not have wanted to part with their former top prospect in recent seasons, it may be time to cut bait and get a decent return as they try to build a team to get back to the playoffs in the coming years.

It's unclear what the Angels want as they intend to sell at the trade deadline fully but still hold onto franchise icon Mike Trout. Trout has repeatedly stated his intentions of winning in Anaheim, and though it feels impossible, the Angels will likely target near-ready talent. A few intriguing pieces in Luken Baker and Gordon Graceffo could be enough to get the Angels to agree to a deal. After all, both are near Major League-ready talents who could help Mike Trout make one last playoff run before his career winds down.

The selling moves

These moves were created prior to the Cardinals owning a playoff spot, but it should go without saying that the Cardinals would not sell if they were in possession of a wild card spot at the trade deadline. However, if they fall out of that spot with the tight competition in the National League, it may be prudent to move off some expensive or expiring assets to reload for the future.

St. Louis Cardinals receive Chris Taylor, Dustin May, and Kyle Hurt. Los Angeles Dodgers receive Nolan Arenado and Andrew Kittredge.

A Nolan Arenado trade would've been completely off the table just last year, but his production has completely regressed so far in the 2024 season. His 2023 was a far cry from his 3rd place MVP finish the year prior, but he was still an above-league-average hitter with solid defense. Now, his offense has fallen even further and his glove is not what it used to be. With a massive contract, it may be time for the Cardinals to move on from Arenado while he still has some value.

Arenado's no-trade clause means he won't accept a trade to just anywhere but he's expressed interest in playing for his hometown Dodgers in the past, and there's a clear fit in Los Angeles. With an oblique injury to Max Muncy taking longer to heal than expected, and Mookie Betts on the shelf for 6-8 weeks with a broken hand, Arenado will sure up the Dodgers' infield depth significantly.

Unfortunately, with the little trade value Arenado has, he won't be able to get much of a haul in return. In order to offload his salary entirely, the Cardinals will need to take on the final year of Chris Taylor's $13 million per year contract. Taylor has been nearly unplayable for the Dodgers this year but could lengthen the Cardinals' bench with a veteran presence in 2024. The once highly touted Dustin May only has one year left on his contract and has seen his career derailed by a variety of arm injuries. He could be a key piece in the Cardinals' rotation should they hope to contend in 2025, but his upside is limited at this point.

26-year-old pitching prospect Kyle Hurt would be the most intriguing piece in this trade as the 5th-ranked prospect in the Dodgers system, but his potential is ultimately quite limited. Even so, the Cardinals will need to include veteran righty Andrew Kittredge to complete this trade. The Dodgers will be looking to bolster their bullpen and Arenado's value has likely hit rock bottom.

However, it may be the best time to trade Nolan Arenado as they can spend his massive salary elsewhere moving forward. Perhaps they can land a bigger free agent on the market or retain one of their budding stars Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Gorman, or Brendan Donovan on a team-friendly extension. Either way, if the Cardinals go this route, meaning Arenado won't be part of their future plans, they should move off his contract as soon as possible, settling for any package that doesn't involve sending the recipient significant cash.

St. Louis Cardinals receive Heston Kjerstad and Connor Norby. Baltimore Orioles receive Ryan Helsley.

Here's a move the Cardinals may even consider if they're in contention at the trade deadline. Ryan Helsley's value may be more to an elite World Series contender like the Orioles than a fringe team like the Cardinals. With the volatility of relievers and the increase in arm injuries to high-velocity pitchers like Helsley, it may be best to capitalize on the value of an All-Star closer like Helsley rather than risk getting nothing for him with only one year left on his deal. It's unlikely the Cardinals would extend Helsley to a Diaz/Hader-type contract, so 2025 is probably the end of the line for Helsley in St. Louis, regardless.

However, a contending Cardinals team would need to be blown away to deal their closer. After getting a front-row seat to the Josh Hader deal backfiring for the contending Brewers in 2022, the Cardinals must navigate a Helsley deal carefully if they're in contention at the deadline. Only a deal involving a top-25 prospect like Kjerstad or similar value should prompt the Cardinals to move on. Then, they must acquire more bullpen help from elsewhere, as the Arizona Diamondbacks did last season after moving on from Andrew Chafin and trading for Paul Sewald.

A team like the Orioles, desperate to go all-in and just missing a lights-out closer, may pull the trigger on the deal. It's obviously an overpay, but the precedent for such a move has been set, as the Chicago Cubs gave up Gleyber Torres and many other promising pieces to the Yankees for just one playoff run. The added year of control for Ryan Helsley should make him an even more enticing piece for interested parties. With Corbin Burnes hitting free agency at the end of the season and a wealth of Minor League talent, the Orioles seem like the perfect fit to go all-in on Ryan Helsley.