The National League got a lot better as the summer went on
We all know about the run the Cardinals went on from May 12th through the All-Star Break. Best record in the National League, the third-best record in all of baseball, and they got themselves in the thick of the Wild Card race, honestly looking like one of the best bets to snag one of those three spots.
Well, the Cardinals have been one of the worst teams in the National League record-wise since the break, while the Mets, Padres, Diamondbacks, and Giants have all caught fire. Even though the Braves have struggled, they still have a sizeable lead on St. Louis. Even teams like the Cubs and Reds have fought their way back into relevancy compared to this Cardinal team.
For all of the reasons I've talked about regarding how the Cardinals do not look like a team that can overcome the gap they've created, I think it is also safe to say that the other teams in the National League Wild Card picture look like much better bets right now.
If you look at the National League Wild Card race, the Cardinals now trail four teams for the third Wild Card spot and are six games back of the Braves who currently hold it. Over the last 10 games, the Cardinals are tied with the Giants for the worst record of those four teams. Again, the Cardinals basically have to play perfect baseball from here on out and hope that the teams in front of them collapse in such a way that they can gain six games in the standings and surpass four different teams.
It would be one thing if there was one team in the Cardinals' way, but it is a whole other thing to believe that all four of the Giants, Cubs, Mets, and Braves will fall out of this race between now and the end of the season. If the Cardinals had more time, you could try and make that argument, but the Cardinals are a sub-.500 team on August 27th, and I don't think the rest of the National League is going to allow them to bounce back.