10 reasons why it is time to give up on the Cardinals' playoff chances this season

Many St. Louis Cardinals fans gave up on this team way earlier this year. Some haven't believed in them in years. But for the few who are still holding out hope in this team, I think it is time you lay those dreams to rest.

The Cardinals just don't have it this year. It is disappointing to say, and the reasons for this are way more odd than I would have predicted a down year to look like, but here we are. I tend to be one of the most optimistic voices in Cardinal land, and yet, even I can see the writing on the wall right now.

I don't know who needs to read this. Maybe the front office needs reminding of how bad things have gotten. Maybe you're still clinging onto hope and this is a reality check. Or perhaps you just want to vent about how horrible things have been. Well, whoever you are, let's break it down together.

Here are the 10 reasons why we need to give up on any hope we have regarding the Cardinals' playoff chances this year

Their rotation was not built to overcome a lack of run production

Ever since the Cardinals committed to this rotation for the 2024 season, I was open with the fact that I believed this could work, but all of that optimism was built on the notion that the Cardinals' offense would produce runs at a high level.

Well, that has not happened, and this rotation was never built to overcome the depth of struggles this offense has had.

If you had told me before the season that the Cardinals' offense would be just league average, I would have had a harder time believing they could push for a playoff spot. If you had told me it would be as bad as it actually is this year, I would have told you they were one of the worst teams in baseball.

And somehow, this rotation has been "okay" enough to keep them in games, and their bullpen and defense for most of the year have been major assets. But if this club is going to dig itself out of the hole they are in, it is going to require excellent pitching down the stretch, and I just do not see this rotation doing that frequently enough to get back into this race.

Past Cardinals teams that went on crazy runs had incredible individual performances

I tend to be one of the most optimistic observers of the Cardinals, and even I can see how wild it is to believe this club has a special run in them.

The 2021 Cardinals pulled off a 17-game winning streak to fight their way into the playoffs. That's tied for the 15th-longest winning streak in baseball history. Paul Goldschmidt, Harrison Bader, and Tyler O'Neill all played at MVP-levels during that stretch while Nolan Arenado and Lars Nootbaar looked like All-Stars. Genesis Cabrera, Kodi Whitley, and Giovanny Gallegos combined to give up just one earned run in 27.1 innings pitched out of the bullpen. J.A. Happ, Jon Lester, Jake Woodford, Miles Mikolas, and Adam Wainright all had ERAs south of 4.00 while starting games for them.

The 2011 Cardinals were ten and a half games back of the Atlanta Braves for the National League Wild Card on August 24th of that season, with their playoff odds standing at just 1.3% at that time. Well, that club did have Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, and Lance Berkman post a 150 wRC+ or better in the second half of the season and received excellent starting pitching from Chris Carpenter and company. Oh, and the Braves experienced a historic collapse that only saw them lose possession of the Wild Card on the final day of the season.

Frankly, the Cardinals have now entered the "It will take an actual miracle" territory for them to make the playoffs, and I just don't see those kinds of individual performances coming from this team.

Sure, no one would have expected the 2011 or 2021 Cardinals to do what they did, but those teams did have future Hall of Famers in their prime (Pujols and Molina, Goldschmidt and Arenado) as well as huge performances from their surrounding core.

Mathematically, the Cardinals are still in the playoff chase, but deep down, we all know the odds are so incredibly low.

The Cardinals' bullpen is taxed and unable to carry them

I sang the praises of the Cardinals' bullpen most of the season, and for good reason. The trio of Ryan Helsley, JoJo Romero, and Andrew Kittredge kept the Cardinals in games time and time again for the first third or so of the season.

Names like Ryan Fernandez, John King, and Matthew Liberatore rose to the occasion as the year went on and carved out significant roles as well. Even guys like Chris Roycroft and Kyle Leahy came up big when they were needed.

Even so, there were fair critiques from Cardinals fans all over social media that their bullpen could not handle that kind of workload. Early in the season, those concerns were overblown, because as long as the Cardinals lineup turned things around eventually, their bullpen would get more of a break.

Well, um, that turnaround never really happened, and as Marmol was forced to call upon the bullpen time and time again to keep them in games, the cracks began to show more and more.

During the first half of the season, the Cardinals' bullpen ranked seventh in all of baseball in ERA (3.50) while posting the ninth-best FIP (3.77). But as the second half has gone on, the bullpen has taken a significant step back, ranking 15th in ERA (4.08) and no longer giving fans the confidence that they can shut down any inning they are called upon in.

It is frustrating, but I don't blame the Cardinals bullpen for where they are at right now. Sure, they needed to execute, no doubt about it, but the strain that was put on them was far too great for far too long, and eventually, they were bound to break without help from other areas of the club.

The rotation was fine, but it did not consistently go deep enough into games with the kind of run prevention necessary with the lack of run production they were getting (more on that later). Inherently, bullpens are only a weapon when your team hands them a lead, and frankly, this offense has not done enough to leverage this bullpen this season.

Instead, they were tasked with keeping the team from sinking, and well, they could only be expected to do that for so long.

Their schedule is brutal the rest of the way

According to Tankathon, the Cardinals have the seventh most difficult schedule the rest of the season. After they wrap up this four-game series against the Padres, they still have series against the Yankees, Brewers, Guardians, Mariners, and Giants, as well as games against scrappy teams like the Pirates, Reds, and Blue Jays.

I just don't know how to believe that a club that is not performing right now will somehow magically start winning every single series they play in from here on out against opponents that are objectively better than them.

I get it, the Cardinals just took two of three from the Brewers and the Twins. But I can't move the goalpost for them. I have not been a believer in the Brewers all season and I still believe they are a worse team than what their record shows, so I can't act like that is all that impressive when the Cardinals take two of three from them. The Twins, frankly, had an awful lineup out there this weekend with multiple of their big bats being out right now. Sure, congrats to the Cardinals, but it does not give me confidence as they face some of their opponents to come.

Okay, sure, the Cardinals could have won every single game of their series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, but they did not. They lost two of three, and at this point in the season, close losses are not something you can write home about. All that matters are wins and losses, and they cannot afford to "take heart" in losing to a good team.

This is what happens when your club does not take care of business since the middle of July and starts the season as slow as they did. They showed they can overcome one of those kinds of massive slumps as a team, but twice? Yeah, that is a tough hole to climb out of, especially when you have to face playoff-caliber teams almost every night from now till the end of the season.

I guess one silver lining is that, if the Cardinals get beat down over the next week or two, maybe they waive the white flag sooner and allow more of their young guys to play. Speaking of which, there is a certain veteran in their lineup who just continues to take this offense in the opposite direction of where it needs to go.

The Cardinals continue to lean on Paul Goldschmidt, despite diminished results

Coming into the 2024 season, I was not expecting us to see the return of MVP Paul Goldschmidt, but I did expect a lot more than what he has provided the Cardinals this year. Frankly, I think even his biggest detractors would agree with that.

Let's take a look at just how bad of a campaign this has been for Goldschmidt.

1. On the season, Goldschmidt is slashing .226/.287/.385 with an 88 wRC+, and yes, all of those are by far his career lows. Goldschmidt is barely worth positive fWAR (0.2) after posting 2.8 or greater fWAR in every full season he's played in his career.
2. Things have only gotten worse in the second half, as Goldschmidt's slash line has dropped to .216/.272/.422, and while that power surge has risen his wRC+ by six points, the lack of on-base skills has proven to be killer for the Cardinals time and time again.
3. Those struggles have mostly been amplified against right-handed pitching, as Goldschmidt is struggling to the tune of a .205/.260/.363 slash line, 74 wRC+, and is striking out 31.1% of the time!
4. Okay, let's really dive into the depths of despair - runners in scoring position. In the most important situations this year, Goldschmidt is slashing - wait for it - .162/.258/.222 (.480 OPS), 40 wRC+, and is striking out in 31.3% of those at-bats. Man, does it get any worse than that?
5. Actually, kind of yes? There are actually four hitters in baseball who have been worse than Goldschmidt with runners in scoring position by wRC+ (say hello to your old friend, Paul DeJong!). Oh, look, Nolan Gorman is sitting right above him as the fifth-least clutch hitter in baseball! How fun!

Seriously, it is mind-boggling to me to see how bad things have gotten for Goldschmidt. Age is undefeated in this sport. You may be able to defy it for a time, but it eventually gets everyone. I just did not see Goldschmidt nose-diving offensively the way he has.

Honestly, huge props to the Cardinals for not doing what we all assumed they would do and extend Goldschmidt before the season. Could you imagine what fans would be saying about that right now? Frankly, I don't see why Goldschmidt would even want to stay in St. Louis after all of the backlash he has received this year.

If this is truly the end of Goldschmidt's time in a Cardinal uniform, it is such a frustrating ending for someone who has been so good for the Cardinals and is an awesome guy. I wish Goldschmidt nothing but success if he plays somewhere else next year, but there really is no argument for him to return to St. Louis, barring taking a reduced role as a platoon bat off the bench.

Their ace isn't pitching like an ace

As bad as Goldschmidt has been, which I think it is pretty safe to say he's underperformed the most out of every Cardinal this season, the one guy who the Cardinals could not afford to have a "down year" was their big free-agent acquisition, Sonny Gray.

After an incredible start to the season, Gray has fallen off in a major way, and his summer has been defined more by the fly balls that are leaving the ballpark than the elite swing-and-miss Gray has in his arsenal.

While I have a lot of optimism regarding Gray's future outlook with the Cardinals, I completely agree that his performance this year has been disappointing. His home run rate was going to go up this year, we all knew that, but going from truly elite at preventing home runs last year to one of the five worst starters in baseball in regards to HR/FB rate is unacceptable.

What drives me bonkers is how often we've seen Gray look untouchable on the mound for most of his start, but then he'll just randomly leave the ball over the heart of the plate and allow a game-changing home run to occur. Gray currently sits with a 4.07 ERA, and it is truly a mystery how his FIP is still just 3.34. It is a testament to how good Gray has been at striking out batters (30.4 K%) and preventing base runners in general (1.13 WHIP).

Out of all of the things on this list, Gray pitching like a front-line starter down the stretch is actually the thing I could buy into the most. Again, Gray's home run issues are real and they aren't as simple as snapping your fingers to fix, but we've seen Gray be dominant for sustained stretches this season, and I still believe he has that in him when you watch him pitch.

It's hard to bank on that though, and assuming the Cardinals recognize they are out of the race in the near future, I would not be surprised to see Gray's usage go down and try to protect his arm for 2025. It's been a disappointing year for Gray, and it is one of the many reasons the club has struggled this year.

The National League got a lot better as the summer went on

We all know about the run the Cardinals went on from May 12th through the All-Star Break. Best record in the National League, the third-best record in all of baseball, and they got themselves in the thick of the Wild Card race, honestly looking like one of the best bets to snag one of those three spots.

Well, the Cardinals have been one of the worst teams in the National League record-wise since the break, while the Mets, Padres, Diamondbacks, and Giants have all caught fire. Even though the Braves have struggled, they still have a sizeable lead on St. Louis. Even teams like the Cubs and Reds have fought their way back into relevancy compared to this Cardinal team.

For all of the reasons I've talked about regarding how the Cardinals do not look like a team that can overcome the gap they've created, I think it is also safe to say that the other teams in the National League Wild Card picture look like much better bets right now.

If you look at the National League Wild Card race, the Cardinals now trail four teams for the third Wild Card spot and are six games back of the Braves who currently hold it. Over the last 10 games, the Cardinals are tied with the Giants for the worst record of those four teams. Again, the Cardinals basically have to play perfect baseball from here on out and hope that the teams in front of them collapse in such a way that they can gain six games in the standings and surpass four different teams.

It would be one thing if there was one team in the Cardinals' way, but it is a whole other thing to believe that all four of the Giants, Cubs, Mets, and Braves will fall out of this race between now and the end of the season. If the Cardinals had more time, you could try and make that argument, but the Cardinals are a sub-.500 team on August 27th, and I don't think the rest of the National League is going to allow them to bounce back.

The Cardinals offense is a massive disappointment

I mean, we all know this already, but the Cardinals' offense is the number one reason this team is not in a playoff spot currently, and I think they also finish in second and third place for reasons why as well.

Yes, big picture-wise, the front office owns this disaster, but man, is this really the kind of year we are going to get from Goldschmidt, Gorman, Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar, and to some extent, Nolan Arenado as well? These guys were supposed to carry the offense this year, not drag it down. For all of them to be this dissapointing is beyond my comprehension still.

And yet, here we are. The Cardinals cannot hit left-handed pitching and they are historically bad when hitting with runners in scoring position. It's actually incredible to think how many games could have been swung this year if the Cardinals were even just bad with runners in scoring position, and now one of the worst teams of all time. The Cardinals have played in so many close games this year, where just one hit in a big spot could have made the difference.

The Cardinals have had the 20th most plate appearances with runners in scoring position this year, but their .633 OPS in those situations is 29th in baseball, only above the horrible Chicago White Sox and 22 points lower than the 28th-ranked Tampa Bay Rays.

The Cardinals have to make a change with their hitting coach after the season. It just has to happen. This offense cannot underperform this badly and the man whose job it is to oversee that unit keeps his job. Yes, there are many others in the organization who likely need to experience repercussions as well, but Turner Ward is low-hanging fruit here.

I also think there may be a good chance that we see a major shake-up with this offensive core this offseason. Letting Goldschmidt walk is one easy way to do that, but do the Cardinals also part ways with a Gorman or Nootbaar to get a different ground of hitters in the lineup every day? Do they go out and sign some veteran bats? I still like the young position player core the Cardinals have, but it is worth considering at this point.

There is simply not enough time

31.

That is how many games the Cardinals have remaining in their season.

Even if the Cardinals were to win every three-game series the rest of the way and split each four-game series, that would bring them to just an 85-77 record, which at this rate, would likely be a few games out of a playoff spot.

So basically, the Cardinals have to play near-perfect baseball the rest of the season, and they have to hope some of the teams ahead of them collapse down the stretch.

Back in May, many of us thought the Cardinals were dead to rights. Sitting at 15-24, nine games back of the division, St. Louis looked like they were bound to have another losing season.

But even then, the club still had 123 games remaining. They are now down to just 31 games.

It's just hard to believe a run is even possible at this point. Again, I understand that it is still mathematically possible, but with each loss from here on out, those chances will dwindle further and further. As of today, FanGraphs is giving the Cardinals just a 0.3% chance of winning the division and a 1.9% chance of getting into the playoffs via the Wild Card.

So you're saying there is a chance? Sure. I guess crazier things have happened?

But let's be honest, this would be one of the crazier things to happen in Cardinals' history.

I'm not banking on it, and neither should you.

This post has been about as negative as I could possibly be. I get that. I don't like it. Some of you eat this kind of criticism up. I frankly hate it. I don't find any joy in pointing out all of the reasons this Cardinals team is done. I really enjoy many of the players on this team and believe this team had more potential than it has shown.

And yet, I know when to call a spade a spade, and frankly, it is time to put to rest any dreams of a miracle playoff run, start looking ahead to the 2025 season, and what will hopefully be an offseason filled with major changes for this organization.