10 burning questions the Cardinals must answer if they want to win back their fans

Question #6 - Does Nolan Arenado fit into the Cardinals' long-term plans?

There is no question that the last two years of Nolan Arenado have been far from what you would have hoped for from their highest-paid player and the guy they expected to be their superstar third baseman.

Since the start of the 2023 season, Arenado is slashing .267/.318/.431 with 39 HR and 148 RBI in 1104 plate appearances. Arenado is tracking to finish with less than 20 home runs, 75 RBI, and career worsts in SLG, OPS, and OPS+ in full seasons of action. The zap of power from his game is especially concerning, as Arenado has found his success during his career from being an extreme pull hitter.

Arenado has looked better in the second half, but not so much that fans will buy into some resurgence from him in 2025. While I think the concerns about Arenado's effort on the field are overblown, I do believe we've seen Arenado struggle emotionally with not performing at a high level, and it hinders his own performance even further and doesn't exactly help the rest of the guys get going either.

Arenado is set to make $32 million in 2025, $27 million in 2026, and $15 million in 2027. St. Louis is also receiving $5 million from the Rockies each of the next two seasons though, so the Cardinals will only pay Arenado $27 million and $22 million in 2025 and 2026.

For all intents and purposes, the Cardinals are on the hook for three years, $64 million for the rest of Arenado's deal. That $21 million AAV is actually not all that bad, meaning I actually don't think his deal is as "unmoveable" as people think it could be. If the Cardinals are not seeking anything of value in return, I think there is a decent chance they could move all of his money without eating anything.

Even if teams balked at that a little bit, do we really think teams would be disinterested in Arenado if the Cardinals themselves ate another $5 million per season? That would put Arenado's number down to $22 million, $17 million, and $10 million. Maybe a bit pricey, but that is honestly the kind of money he'd be looking at if he hit free agency right now.

With a weak free-agent position player class on the horizon, teams who strike out on Matt Chapman and Alex Bregman could be interested in seeing if Arenado can rebound for them. There is probably an arguement that Arenado could benefit from a fresh start with a team like the Dodgers, where the majority of the attention would be on other stars and Arenado can just quietly go about his business.

All that to say though, that does not necessarily mean the Cardinals or Arenado feel that way, so if he was to remain with the club, it would be very interesting to see how the team shapes up around him and if he'll be content with a youth movement of sorts.