10 burning questions the Cardinals must answer if they want to win back their fans

It's not hard to see that many St. Louis Cardinals fans are fed up with the current state of the organization and those who are calling the shots. Some have felt that way for a long time, while others have joined that train as the Cardinals appear headed toward their second consecutive losing season.

Back in February, Katie Woo of The Athletic (subscription required) polled 3,070 Cardinals fans on various questions regarding the state of the team. Among many other things, she found that...

1. 48.5% of fans were pessimistic about the state of the franchise, while just 23.2% of fans were optimistic.
2. Only 31.1% of fans were confident in this ownership group, while just 28.3% of fans were confident in John Mozeliak and the front office. The vote of confidence was even smaller for manager Oliver Marmol.
3. Even with all of that, 55.5% of fans were confident that the Cardinals would continue to be a competitive franchise.

When fans were asked what a successful 2024 season would look like, 94.3% of the respondents believed that the playoffs were the minimum expectation, with 60.9% of those fans believing a playoff series win was needed and 6.1% thought winning the World Series was the only way to be successful.

Well, it's safe to say the Cardinals are on track to increase the dissatisfaction of their fanbase, and if they are not careful, they may lose a lot more interest from the fans that make the operation function going into 2025.

If the Cardinals want to win back their fanbase, they need to answer these 10 burning questions between now and next season.

Question #1 - Who is tasked with leading the front office moving forward?

This is an unpopular but accurate take - John Mozeliak's tenure with the St. Louis Cardinals has been successful, and he will be a Cardinals' Hall of Famer someday. And yet, it is also true that Mozeliak's time in charge of baseball operations needs to come to an end.

From 2011-2015, turned the Cardinals into one of the three most successful organizations in the sport. They won one World Series, made it to four straight NLCS, and made it to another World Series. Bernie Miklasz had the following stats on a recent episode on his YouTube channel: The Cardinals had the most postseason wins (32, the next-best team had 23), the most games played in the postseason (61, which is 28 more games than any other team in the major played in the postseason).

Since 2016, the Cardinals have just four postseason wins and have been to one NLCS (where they got swept by the Washington Nationals). They've missed the playoffs four times (five if they miss again this year) and had three managers over that stretch. While they got back to being competitive from 2019-2022, they were nowhere near the powerhouse that Mozeliak made them into in the early 2010s.

It's time for a new regime in St. Louis. Mozeliak is not oblivious to that - he's been very open about needing to transition his leadership in the near future and bring in an outside perspective to an organization that is a bit stale - but that change must happen this offseason, not next year. For one, I don't think the Cardinals are prepared for the potential drop in revenue that may occur next year if fans do not believe real change is happening, and second, fans are right, this team needs a different guiding voice as soon as possible

I don't think Mozeliak needs to be fired or booted from the organization. Mozeliak can step into a different position with the club for the final year of his contract and allow someone like Chaim Bloom to take over. The aforementioned Bernie Miklasz and Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat both told me they believed this scenario is coming this offseason on the Dealin' the Cards podcast.

Bloom seems to be the favorite to take over, and you can read more about my thoughts on him here. Bloom seems like a match made in heaven for St. Louis, and his expertise in player development and scouting would be a major asset to an organization that used to be the best in baseball at that and has lagged in recent years (especially in player development).

If it is not Chaim Bloom, I do think we've reached a point where fans will not be accepting of an internal hire. That's nothing against Randy Flores, Michael Girsch, or anyone else in that front office, but I just don't believe fans will accept new leadership that doesn't come from outside the organization.

Question #3 - Will the DeWitt family cut payroll or invest more into this team to regain support from fans?

Speaking of ownership, there has been a growing displeasure amongst fans regarding the lack of spending on payroll compared to other top clubs in baseball.

I think most fans understand that the Cardinals are just not going to spend like the Dodgers, Yankees, and Mets. But could they start having payrolls that are more comparable to the Astros, Rangers, Cubs, Blue Jays, and Giants? I think so.

I always hesitate to use payroll numbers that we find on public sites since most tend to not be the most accurate, but FanGraphs seems to do some of the best work out of the free stuff that is out there. They have the Cardinals sitting with the 12th-highest payroll in baseball currently, sitting around $182 million for 2024. For reference, the Cubs, who have the eighth highest payroll in baseball, are estimated at about $225 million in payroll, $43 million more than St. Louis.

Yes, I think fans are right to be worried about payroll numbers currently, and I have no doubt those frustrations will grow next season if the Cardinals cut payroll this offseason.

It is no secret that the Cardinals are not getting the same attendance and fan engagement that they used to. It's still stronger than most clubs, but it's not likely the cash cow it was before. The continued uncertainty surrounding RSN rights and a tough economy do not help matters either. Please don't hear this as me defending ownership, I'm just pointing to the things they are going to point to if they do decide to shrink payroll back.

Should the Cardinals cut payroll back next season, I think they will be putting themselves in a tough spot early on with fan support. It will take a lot of winning to get fans back to the ballpark, but if the Cardinals invest more money into this club, they could boost excitement and bring fans back to the stands.

Now, with that being said, what is far more important than the Cardinals spending more money is spending their money wisely. Frankly, you can have the highest payroll in baseball and still be a bad team. While deals for guys like Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray seem to be good investments, the Cardinals have names like Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz that cause them buyer's remorse.

How about Dexter Fowler, Brett Cecil, Andrew Miller, Mike Leake, Matt Carpenter's second extension, and Adam Wainwright's final deal? Those are just some of the biggest mistakes from recent years but are great examples of the poor management of resources from this front office. Clubs like the Brewers, Rays, Guardians, and Twins consistently do more with less and are living proof that wise investments can get you in contention without having a payroll the size of the Cardinals', let alone the top dogs in the game.

Again, I'm not saying the Cardinals should not spend more, I'm just saying they also need to spend better.

Question #4 - If John Mozeliak is no longer in charge, does Oli Marmol lose his job too?

Even as someone who has liked Oli Marmol during his time as the Cardinals' manager, I have a hard time believing the Cardinals can keep him as their manager after this season and get fans to buy into what they are doing.

Marmol's time with the Cardinals has been rocky at best. Following a fun 2022 campaign where St. Louis made the playoffs, the Cardinals are set to miss the playoffs for two straight seasons and have looked like a mess in both of them.

I put most of that blame on the front office and the system issues that they have fostered (and that ownership has ultimately allowed to occur) as the reason why the Cardinals find themselves where they are. But do I think Marmol's hands are clean? No. Do I think he deserves to lose his job? Not at this moment. But the more I think about it, the more it feels like Bloom or whoever takes over will want to put a new voice in the clubhouse.

With a name like Skip Schumaker likely available this offseason, it feels like a good time to be looking for a manager if St. Louis goes in that direction. Names like Guardians' Kai Correa, Cubs' Ryan Flaherty, and Blue Jays' Mark Budzinski have been named in the past as potential managers one day. And of course, we all know about Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols' aspirations to manage one day.

If sweeping changes are coming in St. Louis, it is likely best to fully commit to that, rather than have a lame-duck manager with new leadership in place. If not, I think fans will be very frustrated to see Marmol in the manager seat again next season, whether he deserves another chance or not.

Question #5 - What will the Cardinals do with Paul Goldschmidt and other veterans on expiring deals?

There have been rumblings that the Cardinals will explore bringing back Paul Goldschmidt this offseason, which, uh, would be a choice.

Goldschmidt has fallen off big time this year, posting a .230/.290/.391 slash line with 19 HR and 49 RBI at this point in the season. He's barely in the positive in terms of fWAR (0.3) and is 9% below league average at the plate according to wRC+. While Goldschmidt can still hit left-handed pitching, he just does not have it anymore against righties and has been awful with runners in scoring position.

Fans are going to want to see turnover from this roster, and unless they really believe Turner Ward was that big of an issue in Goldschmidt's decline, then I don't see a great reason to bring him back. Sure, if he wants to take a small, one-year deal to come off the bench against left-handed pitching, I could see that. But I'm going to assume Goldschmidt won't necessarily be a "cheap" deal, and my guess is he wants to play every day still.

Along with Goldschmidt, the Cardinals need to figure out what they are doing with their club options for Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, and Keynan Middleton. Specifically in the cases of Gibson and Lynn, there is an argument that saving the $22 million the Cardinals can by declining both options (or even just the $11 million from Lynn's deal) would be better used elsewhere.

In fact, the Cardinals could even go after another starter in the same tier or better as Sonny Gray if they saved money on those back-end starters, and go into 2025 with a rotation of Gray, new front-line starter, Fedde, Pallante, and Mikolas.

Speaking of Mikolas, could the Cardinals look to try and shed his contract or Matz's deal this offseason as well? If the Cardinals want to retool their roster, this seems to be a preferred route of doing so. Give more chances to young arms like Andre Pallante, Michael McGreevy, Gordon Graceffo, and Adam Kloffenstein, and maybe even get some help from top prospects like Quinn Mathews or Tink Hence at some point as well.

I think it is much more likely that the Cardinals find a suitor for Matz than Mikolas, and I do think it is something they will explore this offseason. St. Louis needs a shake-up on this roster, and the best place to start is by offloading underperforming veterans.

Question #6 - Does Nolan Arenado fit into the Cardinals' long-term plans?

There is no question that the last two years of Nolan Arenado have been far from what you would have hoped for from their highest-paid player and the guy they expected to be their superstar third baseman.

Since the start of the 2023 season, Arenado is slashing .267/.318/.431 with 39 HR and 148 RBI in 1104 plate appearances. Arenado is tracking to finish with less than 20 home runs, 75 RBI, and career worsts in SLG, OPS, and OPS+ in full seasons of action. The zap of power from his game is especially concerning, as Arenado has found his success during his career from being an extreme pull hitter.

Arenado has looked better in the second half, but not so much that fans will buy into some resurgence from him in 2025. While I think the concerns about Arenado's effort on the field are overblown, I do believe we've seen Arenado struggle emotionally with not performing at a high level, and it hinders his own performance even further and doesn't exactly help the rest of the guys get going either.

Arenado is set to make $32 million in 2025, $27 million in 2026, and $15 million in 2027. St. Louis is also receiving $5 million from the Rockies each of the next two seasons though, so the Cardinals will only pay Arenado $27 million and $22 million in 2025 and 2026.

For all intents and purposes, the Cardinals are on the hook for three years, $64 million for the rest of Arenado's deal. That $21 million AAV is actually not all that bad, meaning I actually don't think his deal is as "unmoveable" as people think it could be. If the Cardinals are not seeking anything of value in return, I think there is a decent chance they could move all of his money without eating anything.

Even if teams balked at that a little bit, do we really think teams would be disinterested in Arenado if the Cardinals themselves ate another $5 million per season? That would put Arenado's number down to $22 million, $17 million, and $10 million. Maybe a bit pricey, but that is honestly the kind of money he'd be looking at if he hit free agency right now.

With a weak free-agent position player class on the horizon, teams who strike out on Matt Chapman and Alex Bregman could be interested in seeing if Arenado can rebound for them. There is probably an arguement that Arenado could benefit from a fresh start with a team like the Dodgers, where the majority of the attention would be on other stars and Arenado can just quietly go about his business.

All that to say though, that does not necessarily mean the Cardinals or Arenado feel that way, so if he was to remain with the club, it would be very interesting to see how the team shapes up around him and if he'll be content with a youth movement of sorts.

Question #7 - How will the club fix an offense that as a whole is less than the sum of its parts?

The Cardinals offense was supposed to be the strength of the club this year, but instead, it has been one of the worst in baseball and historically bad, with runners in scoring position.

On top of Goldschmidt and Arenado, the Cardinals have had disappointing years offensively from Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar, and Brendan Donovan as well. Gorman and Walker now find themselves in Memphis, Nootbaar is playing like someone who deserves to be there, and while Donovan has been a great player overall for them this year, his bat has taken steps back.

What on earth do the Cardinals do to fix their offense this offseason?

Well, the first and easiest response is by firing hitting coach Turner Ward. The offense has regressed significantly since Ward took over, and it is especially telling that both veterans and young players are struggling under his leadership.

Thankfully bats like Willson Contreras, Alec Burleson, and Masyn Winn have provided hope, but the latter two position players were not supposed to be leading their offense this year. If the Cardinals want to have a bright future, they need production from the names I listed above - or they need to find a way to shake up this position player group.

When you look at the names in the lineup, it looks like a team that should be one of the better offenses in baseball. Last season, the Cardinals were a top-10 offense in baseball before waiving the white flag. Even with expected regression from Goldschmidt and Areando, guys like Gorman, Walker, Nootbaar, and Donovan were supposed to be getting better, not substantially worse.

So how do the Cardinals fix that group outside of just a hitting coach change? Do they stick with this core of youngsters and hope an offseason to reset and a fresh voice help them achieve what we know they can offensively again? Or do they need to move some of these names in the offseason to truly shake things up?

The problem with moving some of those pieces this offseason is I have a strong feeling they'll end up performing elsewhere. Gorman and Nootbaar are at their lowest value right now, so I'm not sure what you would actually get for them.

Maybe it looks like the Cardinals bringing in a few veterans to compete with their young core, giving St. Louis other options while still allowing those young bats to potentially break through again.

While I think many fans will understand holding onto their young core, I do believe there will be a crowd who could not stand to see them run it back with mostly the same names. I don't blame them, but I do think this conversation will be a tricky needle to thread this winter.

Question #8 - How much can this farm system actually help the Cardinals over the next few seasons?

With the struggles of Walker, Gorman, Nootbaar, and Donovan this year along with the inability to get the best out of former Cardinals like Dylan Carlson, Lane Thomas, Adolis Garcia, and Randy Arozarena, it is fair to wonder if the Cardinals' current prospects will actually be able to help them in a meaningful way over the coming seasons.

Names like JJ Wetherholt, Tink Hence, Quinn Mathews, Cooper Hjerpe, Thomas Saggese, and Chase Davis seem to be the highlights of their farm system right now. Mathews, Saggese, and possibly Hence and Hjerpe are realistic options to see at some point in 2025, the others are likely two or more seasons away.

If the Cardinals have a change in leadership and their coaching staff, I think there will be more confidence from fans that these prospects can actually come up and find success with St. Louis. It's not like their prospects never find success - Walker, Gorman, Donovan, Nootbaar, and Carlson all had success in St. Louis for varying lengths of time. But it is more than fair to be concerned about whether or not the Cardinals know how to get the best from their players for years on end.

Personally, I rank the guys above into the following categories when it comes to my "confidence" that they'll be successful:

1. Will be a really good big leaguer, could be a star - JJ Wetherholt
2. Should be a good big leaguer, good be great, will at least be average - Quinn Matthews
3. Could be stars, could be busts, or anything in between - Tink Hence and Chase Davis
4. Good be really good, should be average - Thomas Saggese and Cooper Hjerpe

Most scouting outlets have the Cardinals farm system ranked in the late teens or early twenties among all farm systems in baseball. If St. Louis is trending toward another top pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, their system could really strengthen p over the next calendar year.

Player development is going to be one of the biggest question marks facing this organization going forward, if not the biggest one. The Cardinals used to be at the forefront of this in the early 2010s, but have lagged behind ever since. Chaim Bloom does feel like the perfect fit to change that narrative though.

Question #9 - Where do the Cardinals rank among their NL Central counterparts long-term, let alone the rest of the National League?

We can talk all day about the Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres, and Arizona Diamondbacks - but how confident are we that the Cardinals even have the brightest future in their own division?

The Milwaukee Brewers are the class of the National League Central right now. They do more with less, they make smart trades and free-agent signings, and they are constantly pumping out talent from their farm system. They may not be a World Series contender, but no one in the NL Central can touch their operation right now.

The Cincinnati Reds have a young MVP candidate in Elly De La Cruz and have surrounded him with promising young bats. Their rotation features a stud in Hunter Greene, and he is also surrounded by some intriguing young arms. Many around baseball believe the Reds are a powerhouse in the making, but they need to continue to prove they can develop their talent and make wise moves as well.

The Chicago Cubs have been extremely dissapointing this year but still feature a roster with interesting big leaguers and a loaded farm system. They also operated with the largest payroll in the division and have the potential to sign big fish any winter.

The Pittsburgh Pirates appear to be the new pitching factory in Major League Baseball, with Paul Skenes leading a young staff of Jared Jones, Mitch Keller, and others. Their young team seems ready to compete in the near future as well and they have some interesting prospects as well.

So, where do the Cardinals slot in here currently? Can they drastically change their standing within the NL Central in one offseason? They need to find a way to do so, because if the Cardinals cannot be trusted in the NL Central, then they are many years away from being a favorite in the National League.

Question #10 - Will the changes that the St. Louis Cardinals make actually bring fans back to the ballpark?

The announced paid attendance from Tuesday night's game against the Milwaukee Brewers was 30,022, the smallest crowd in the history of Busch Stadium III (not including when there were COVID-19-related restrictions on attendance).

Fans have shown ownership how they feel about this team, and I imagine it will only get worse as the season goes along and the Cardinals continue to fade in the playoff race. This is now two seasons in a row where you can write the Cardinals off as a playoff team by mid-August, and that is not going to fly in the city of St. Louis.

The Athletics' Katie Woo was on the Foul Territory this week, and she reiterated what we've been hearing around the club for some time now - ownership probably won't spend more to win fans back, and instead will likely scale back due to "losses in revenue".

If the Cardinals do not make drastic changes to the organization this offseason, I do not anticipate fans returning to the stands in 2025. It will take major changes coupled with winning baseball to draw fans back to the ballpark, and I'm not sure if Bill DeWitt Jr. is prepared to do what it will take to get fans' attention.

Frankly, the Cardinals are on the verge of a snowball effect that may take many years to undo if they don't prove to fans they are serious about changing their ways. St. Louis is a baseball town, and in a world that is increasingly losing interest in the sport, they have been the rare exception that has continued to lean into their hometown team.

And yet, with the cord-cutting that has been happening over the last decade and the increased difficulty of trying to find a game on TV, Cardinals fans already have plenty of reasons not to care about this team. Add in the fact that the team is bad and fans do not believe in the front office or coaching staff, and you have a recipe for continued losses on your hands.

Many fans remember DeWitt's comments back in 2018 when they fired manager Mike Matheny. DeWitt Jr. infamously stated that the Cardinals' organization is not content with just a winning record. Well, look how far they have fallen.

I honestly don't know what fan reception will be like next year, but if the DeWitt family is serious about their desire to win, they'll move heaven and earth this offseason to make things right.