10 burning questions facing the St. Louis Cardinals as Spring Training begins

On the eve of Valentine's Day and the first official workout for the St. Louis Cardinals pitchers and catchers, many players have already reported to the Roger Dean Stadium complex to begin Spring Training activities and gear up for the 2024 season.

This has felt like an unusually long offseason for the Cardinals. Normally, they are at least playing competitive baseball late into September, if not October, but this year, the season was all but over by the All-Star Break, at the very latest. It's basically been an eight-month offseason for the Cardinals, something that none of us want to see repeated in 2024.

While the Cardinals were busy at the trade deadline and in the offseason to retool the ballclub, as we saw with last year's club, they have to go out on the field and prove they are a team worthy of being taken seriously in 2024. Most people had the Cardinals as the clear-cut favorites in the National League Central in 2023, and yet, they had one of their worst seasons in franchise history. Fans and media alike rightfully have a lot of questions for the club as we start Spring Training.

Here are ten questions burning on my mind this week, and I think some up a lot of the questions fans have as well.

Will their starting rotation be meaningfully better in 2024?

Some people think the Cardinals' rotation enters 2024 with virtually the same questions and flaws as their group last season, others believe the rotation has taken meaningful steps forward, especially when it comes to production from the back end of that group, and many fall somewhere in-between. What almost everyone can agree on though is that it's the things we are keeping the closest eye on as the Cardinals hit the field in Jupiter.

It's hard to understate how much of a mess the rotation was in 2023. Outside of Jordan Montgomery (who was promptly traded for prospects at the deadline), no one was able to string together sustained success in the rotation. Every other starter on the staff finished with an ERA north of 4.00 on the season, and five different starters took the ball 8 or more times to begin games and had ERAs north of 5.00.

High-end talent in the rotation was sorely lacking, exacerbated by Adam Wainwright's 7.40 ERA in 21 starts. Getting 80 starts from the mix of Wainwright, Jake Woodford, Drew Rom, Jack Flaherty, Dakota Hudson, and Matthew Liberatore was never going to be a recipe for success.

The other elephant in the room for the Cardinals was the lack of innings, and even more so quality outings, that they from their rotation. The aforementioned group, minus Flaherty, combined for just 10 quality starts in 60 outings, an atrocious number for any team trying to make a run at the postseason.

While the Cardinals did go out and acquire one starter that should bring a lot of high-end talent in Sonny Gray, they seemed to major in trying to address the innings deficit they felt in 2023 with the additions of Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn. The Cardinals starting rotation ranked 14th in baseball in innings, 26th in ERA, and tied for 22nd in quality starts for the entire season. The Cardinals are banking on more "stable" performances from their rotation this season, rather than going out and betting on upside.

While there are mixed opinions on how effective this strategy will be, it will become clear early on if the Cardinals' rotation bets paid off or not.

Will health be in the Cardinals favor over the course of the season?

While injuries weren't the reason the Cardinals did not contend in 2023, they certainly did not help their cause. I mentioned Arenado's nagging back issues last year, but a variety of other contributors faced the injury bug as well:

- Nolan Gorman played in just 119 games with his own back issues that stem from an injury in 2020.

- Lars Nootbaar hit the IL three times, twice due to freak injuries, and played in just 117 games.

- Brendan Donovan had season-ending elbow surgery at the end of July, finishing with just 95 games played.

- Ryan Helsley missed 3 months of the season due to injury, contributing to the void they felt at the back of the bullpen.

- Dylan Carlson (76 G) and Tyler O'Neill (72 G) could not bring stability to the outfield and created a revolving door out there for most of the season.

- Steven Matz, after catching fire in his seven starts returning to the rotation, only made 17 starts.

- Not to mention the demotion of Jordan Walker during the month of May, which was great for his development, but contributed to a void in their lineup for a month of the season.

Health is something that every team has to battle, so there is a very, very slim chance that the Cardinals don't have to face some sort of injury adversity during the course of the year. But it's fair to wonder if they'll have so many key contributors miss significant stretches of games once again. In particular, the combination of Goldschmidt, Arenado, Contreras, Walker, Gorman, Donovan, and Nootbaar played in just 10 games together in 2023. It's difficult to be a top offense in baseball when you miss multiple key contributors in 152 games.

Over on the Noot News Podcast, we made some bold predictions for the 2024 season, and a lot of them had to do with the potential this lineup has if their impact guys can stay healthy this year.

Looking at the rotation this year, Matz has been an injury risk in recent years, but the health of the other four arms will be important to watch as well. The Cardinals have stronger rotation depth than they've had in past years, but they ideally want to avoid dipping into it too much throughout the year. Health will be important in 2024, can they have better luck than last year?

Who rises to the top in this new look bullpen?

Out with the old, in with the new (strikeout stuff), that's my mantra for the Cardinals bullpen mix in 2024.

Gone from the mix are Jordan Hicks, Drew VerHagen, Genesis Cabrera, Chris Stratton, Jacob Barnes, Casey Lawrence, James Naile, Jake Woodford, Dakota Hudson, Andrew Suarez, and Ryan Tepera. While Hicks, VerHagen, and Stratton were valuable contributors last season, the majority of that mix were ineffective in their attempts to stabilze the bullpen.

At the trade deadline and in the offseason are Keynan Middleton, Andrew Kittredge, Nick Robertson, Ryan Fernandez, John King, Riley O'Brien, Josh James, and Jacob Bosiokovic. It's a very different group than the one the Cardinals had in 2023, especially in terms of adding swing-and-miss upside to the group.

Almost every reliever they've acquired this offseason has one or two pitches or tools that can generate a ton of swing-and-miss when that pitcher is "on". Last year, the Cardinals struggled to have more than one or two relievers they could trust at any given time, and at least on paper, that number has grown significantly this offseason.

Paired with the health of Ryan Helsley, a potential rebound season from Giovanny Gallegos, and the emergence of JoJo Romero, the bullpen looks a lot stronger than it did last year when it was a bottom-10 unit in all of baseball.

On top of the mainstays and the newcomers, familiar faces like Andre Pallante, Packy Naughton, Wilking Rodriguez, and Kyle Leahy are hoping to make names for themselves as well. Even potential starters or prospects like Gordon Graceffo, Zack Thompson, Matthew Liberatore, Drew Rom, Adam Kloffenstein, Sem Robberse, Logan Sawyer, Tekoah Roby, Tink Hence, Michael McGreevy, Cooper Hjerpe, Ryan Lotus, and Andre Granillo could all factor in as well based off performance and need.

That's a whole lot of names, but that's the point. Compared to last year, the Cardinals are littered with bullpen options, giving them depth and flexibility to mix and match that group to their desire as they navigate a long 162-game season.

Which prospects impress the most during the spring?

Last spring, Jordan Walker and Masyn Winn took Jupiter by storm, with Walker forcing his way onto the Opening Day roster and Winn reshaping expectations for him as a prospect in the Cardinals system.

Entering 2024, there are a few names that stand out that could have camps like that duo did last year. The obvious pick is Victor Scott II, whose blazing speed has put him into the conversation as one of the most exciting prospects in recent memory. His bat and glove took major strides in 2023, taking him from just a "runner" to a really good baseball player who also happens to be faster than everyone else. A strong spring from Scott will at least force a conversation about his future, and would likely accelerate his call-up timeline in 2024.

Thomas Saggese, one of the pieces who came over in the Jordan Montgomery/Chris Stratton trade, is fresh off winning the Texas League Most Valuable Player award and looks to be the next in a running list of Cardinals utility infielders who hit their way into St. Louis. Finding a specific role for Saggese right now is tough, but like Scott, he can enter that "roster bubble" conversation rather quickly with a strong camp.

While there are other position players to watch out for this spring, there is an intriguing group of starters who we need to keep an eye on as well. Tink Hence and Tekoah Roby are the top pitching prospects in the system, and while both are likely at least a year away from St. Louis, this spring can give us a good idea of their progress, and potentially what their ceilings are as prospects.

Gordon Graceffo is the closest to St. Louis with a higher-end prospect pedigree and could move his way into the next man up for the rotation category soon as well. Adam Kloffenstein, Michael McGreevy, and Sem Robberse are other prospects who will start the year in Memphis and are close to providing the Cardinals with pitching depth as well.

While I am skeptical that anyone will force their way onto the roster like Walker did last year, it's very possible any of those names finish the spring on the doorstep of a call-up and make their debuts early on in the 2024 season.

Can the Cardinals weather a difficult schedule to being their season?

If you check out the Cardinals' schedule to begin the 2024 season, you'll notice that it is quite a gauntlet of teams they have to go toe to toe with right out of the gates. After opening the season with a four-game series in Los Angeles against the Dodgers and a three-game set in San Diego against the Padres, they follow that up with series against the Marlins, Phillies, and Diamondbacks.

Following those series, they round out the month of April with the Athletics, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Mets, and Tigers. Outside of the Athletics, each of those teams is expected to at least compete for the playoffs in 2024, with the Dodgers, Phillies, and Diamondbacks being among the top contenders in baseball.

The Cardinals began March and April of 2023 10-19, and that soon snowballed into an awful season as a whole. Their .345 winning percentage during that stretch was the worst of the entire year, with only the month of June being a sub-.400 winning percentage as well. With the expectations that this team has both of itself and from the fanbase, a slow start could bring about major changes, or have another snowball-like effect.

The Cardinals don't need to have the best record in baseball coming out of March/April and they don't even need to have their best stretch of baseball then, but they do need to prove they are a competitive ballclub and now dig themselves a hole that is too difficult to overcome. How they approach Spring Training and the level of focus they have to begin the season will dictate a lot of this.

How soon, if at all, does public pressure for Yadier Molina become a reality in the Cardinals clubhouse?

Speaking of a slow start, John Mozeliak was asked during Winter Warm-Up about Yadier Molina's role with the club and the potential controversy it creates with Oli Marmol being in a contract year, and instead of tempering those ideas, Mozeliak said: "It could become real, we'll find out".

It was clear though that Marmol was their their guy and they had full confidence in Marmol to lead the club in 2024, so I didn't take that as a sign that they were anticipating a change happening. But what it did signal to me is that Mozeliak kept the door open for conversation, and although fans would still talk about it anyways, Mozeliak could have used that question as a way to shut down the idea.

Marmol does not seem phased at all by it. In fact, he invites that kind of pressure, and he actually wants Molina around the club as much as possible.

And yet, if the team does start the season slow, or they do underperform as the year goes on, will that public pressure for Molina begin to grow in such a way that it becomes a reality in the Cardinals' clubhouse or front office? Ultimately, I don't think they would make a move because fans clamor for it, but I do think growing outside noise would likely be a result of growing internal reasons to make a chance at the manager spot.

Something we haven't really confirmed yet is whether or not Molina would actually be ready to step into that role. He clearly wants to manage, but is he ready to take on that full commitment? I think he would say yes, but do we know for sure?

And I also am a believer in Marmol. He has to get results this year to keep his job, but I'm not quick to run him out of town. How he begins the year though will shape a lot of this conversation.

How will the Cardinals handle their catching tandem?

The Cardinals had quite the fiasco with their catching situation in 2023, but things appear to be a lot smoother as we enter 2024 with Willson Contreras and Ivan Herrera at the helm. The question remains though - how will the Cardinals balance their playing time?

I talked about this a few days ago that Contreras and Herrera could form one of, if not the best catching tandem in baseball this year, and with Herrera's youth, they likely want him playing as much as possible throughout the year.

Contreras started 89 games behind the plate last year, and that was after being removed from catching duties for a few weeks. If I had to guess, I think he'd catch more games in 2024, especially with the work he has put in this offseason behind the dish. If he catches about 100 games in 2024, that leaves Herrera with about 62 starts during the year.

Now, there will be some games where both guys play, as there are usually about 10-15 games a year where the starting catcher does not finish the game, but 62 starts for Herrera isn't what I would call a ton of playing time, but there are other impacts on the roster if Herrera catches more.

Contreras swung the Cardinals' best bat in 2023, and he will likely be a top 3-5 bat on the roster again this season. When he is not starting at catcher, the club is going to want him at DH frequently. Contreras got 30 starts there last year, and that number could grow this year if they have a lot of trust in Herrera.

However they decide to handle their playing time will have a direct impact on their development and performance, but also impact those same things with a number of other players on the roster.

Which position players get "squeezed" out of the regular mix?

Right now, the Cardinals have a ton of position players they want to get consistent playing time for.

The primary nine:
Brendan Donovan
Paul Goldschmidt
Lars Nootbaar
Nolan Arenado
Willson Contreras
Jordan Walker
Nolan Gorman
Tommy Edman
Masyn Winn

As well as significant pieces like Dylan Carlson, Alec Burleson, and Ivan Herrera. This doesn't even touch up-and-coming prospects like Victor Scott II and Thomas Saggese.

Finding playing time for each of them will be a unique challenge for Marmol. Those primary nine players plus Herrera should see the bulk of playing time though, with Dylan Carlson serving as the fourth outfielder with his ability to play center field.

So what does that do for someone like Alec Burleson? The DH spot, when everyone is available, will likely be occupied by one of Donovan, Gorman, Contreras, Goldschmidt, or Arenado. Even when Goldschmidt is at DH for a game, the club may decide to slide Donovan to first base to maintain their best possible lineup. Gorman and Donovan can fill in at third base when Arenado is resting. Herrera will obviously catch when Contreras is the DH. The playing time for a guy like Burleson is very muddy right now.

This also makes the path for a Saggese or Scott muddy as well. Barring an injury or someone underperforming, it's unlikely that either will be called upon, as the Cardinals want them playing every day and not riding the bench. Injuries and down seasons always happen though, so that mix will be sorted out as the season goes on.

It is clear though that there are more quality players than there are positions to go around, so a few players will feel the opportunities shrink this year, and that will be an interesting dynamic to watch this season.

Is this the year we finally see an internal arm emerge for the starting rotation?

One final thing to keep an eye on, both this spring and as the season plugs along, is whether or not the Cardinals can have a young arm finally emerge to grab a rotation spot.

In the last few years, the Cardinals have had to fill out their rotation with free-agent or trade acquisitions, guys who are already arbitration-eligible or on larger free-agent deals. The problem with paying five guys that kind of money is it spreads out the dollars across the entire rotation, instead of allowing the Cardinals to spend bigger on specific arms. Yes, the Cardinals can simply change that by upping their budget, but that's another conversation.

Regardless, the best teams in baseball tend to at least develop some of their own pitching, and the Cardinals just have not done that well recently. With club options on guys like Lynn and Gibson for 2025 though, they have an opportunity to place their production in-house if someone emerges.

We mentioned some of these names already, but keep an eye out for the likes of Graceffo, Thompson, and Liberatore this year, as if one of them can take the bull by the horns, the opportunity is there. To a lesser extent, names like McGreevy, Kloffenstein, and Robberse could do the same as well.

It will also be interesting to see if guys a little further out but with higher potential, like Roby, Hence, or Cooper Hjerpe, can make enough strides in 2024 that they are ready to compete for a rotation spot for 2025 as well. This is the first season in a while where it feels really promising that someone could emerge, so keep an eye on that group as they make their way through the minor league systems and potentially insert their name into the rotation soon.