10 bold predictions for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2024

Happy New Year, Cardinals fans! If there was ever a season where the Cardinals truly needed a calendar change, it was the disaster that was 2023. While they've done some lifting to address some of their issues from last year, the jury is still out on how successful they'll be at making 2024 a year to remember.

I recently revisited my bold predictions for the 2023 season, and in honor of the new year beginning, I decided to make 10 bold predictions for the Cardinals in the year 2024. These predictions are not just limited to the 2024 season but will encompass things that will happen between January 1st and December 31st of 2024.

Prediction #1 - Dylan Carlson wins the Opening Day center field job

Last year I predicted that Carlson would become the clear-cut fourth outfielder for the Cardinals. While hindsight makes that seem like an easy prediction, there was an open competition between Carlson and Tyler O'Neill for the center field job, and Carlson was just a year removed from finishing top 3 in Rookie of the Year voting.

The 2023 season was filled with injuries and statistical regression for Carlson, he actually saw an increase in his average exit velocity, barrel percentage, hard-hit percentage, xSLG, xBA, xwOBA, and improvements in both his strikeout percentage and walk percentage. Under the hood where things were concerning for Carlson, things improved. He also had a terrible BABIP of .256, so there are a lot of reasons to believe things will be better for him in 2024.

It's easy to forget that after the Cardinals traded Bader at the 2022 Trade Deadline, Carlson battled a wrist injury that hindered him the majority of the second half, and then came into 2023 with the cards stacked against him in Spring Training. I am by no means making excuses for Carlson, but it's really not hard to see how he is due for positive regression, and could even start hitting the potential that many saw in him just a few years ago.

After coming up for the first time during the COVID season, Carlson posted a .780 OPS and 18 home runs en route to a third-place finish in National League Rookie of the Year voting in 2021. He's already shown he can be a quality everyday outfielder, and I'll boldly predict he will regain that spot to start 2024 as well.

What does this mean for Tommy Edman? Well, this gives the Cardinals the flexibility to be patient with Masyn Winn if he has a rough Spring Training and have him begin the year in Memphis, or if Winn is ready to go, Edman is the perfect super-utility player for St. Louis. He can fill in at shortstop, second base, or any of the three outfield positions on any day, and would likely start against left-handed pitching still.

I also don't necessarily think Carlson breaking out in the spring means that he will keep the center field job all year, something we'll look at again later.

Prediction #2 - Lars Nootbaar will be the Cardinals’ best player in 2024

Saying Lars Nootbaar will lead the team in fWAR or be the club's best outfielder wouldn't be a bold take. In 117 games in 2024, Nootbaar posted a 3.2 fWAR, second on the Cardinals behind Goldschmidt's 3.7 in 37 fewer games.

Nootbaar began breaking out in the second half of 2022, and if it wasn't for a few weird injuries that kept him out for various stretches last year, I think he would have established himself even further in fans' eyes as an emerging star.

2023 saw Nootbaar post a .261/.367/.418 slash line with a 118 wRC+ and he maintained an elite chase percentage, whiff percentage, and walk percentage while grading out in the 81st percentile in xwOBA. Nootbaar moving to the corner outfield full-time will allow him to be a well-above-average defender while being among the best on-base guys in the league. The key to him reaching new heights this year will be staying on the field consistently, as if he does, that power that has been shown in flashes should break out.

In 2022, Nootbaar hit the ball extremely hard, finishing in the 90th percentile in average exit velocity, 85th percentile in barrel percentage, and 80th percentile in hard-hit percentage. All three of those took major dips in 2023 even with the success on the field, and I tend to believe it was the extended time missed that made it difficult for Nootbaar to maintain that rate.

The way the Cardinals structure their everyday lineup could help Nootbaar's statistical case as well. Nootbaar is a candidate to be the leadoff hitter of a top 5 to 10 offense in baseball next year, but he's also a likely player to hit third for St. Louis on many days, sandwiched between Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. For what it's worth, Nootbaar posted a 131 wRC+ in 116 plate appearances with runners in scoring position last year, so he's shown the ability to be very productive when you put him in big spots.

Nootbaar may find himself in a variety of RBI situations while also getting on base and scoring a ton of runs. We've seen how good a player can be slotted between Goldschmidt and Arenado (see Tyler O'Neill in 2021), and while I am not going to predict Nootbaar being that good, I do see him vying for an All-Star appearance and being a guy who gets MVP votes next year.

Prediction #3 - The Cardinals will begin to unveil what life after John Mozeliak will look like

John Mozeliak's contract as the Cardinals' president of baseball operations ends after the 2025 season. I do not see the Cardinals letting him go before then, but they've continued to hint at shifts in leadership as Mozeliak finishes his tenure in that role.

If things go poorly, we could see that timeline accelerated, with Mozeliak moved up to a higher role in the organization and a new president of baseball operations identified, but what I think is more likely is a continued transition period.

Randy Flores and Michael Girsch seem to be the two candidates internally that make the most sense to be promoted into Mozeliak's role, but they could also look to bring in an outside voice like Chaim Bloom or someone else who could step into that role. While I do not expect the official promotions to happen until after the 2025 season, I do think we'll know what the plan is for St. Louis by the end of 2024.

Part of the season that the Cardinals have been hinting at these upcoming changes is because they are already thinking ahead to what the front office structure will be like. We could see some shifts in how the front office hierarchy works, but we'll surely see expanded roles for people in the front office, even while Mozeliak is still in charge.

Another reason I think these changes will be identified by the end of 2024 is that there are some major decisions looming for the club in the next calendar year, and I think the organization will want their next president of baseball operations (or however they structure the front office) to have a major say in these calls, especially one I'll identify later in this list.

Prediction #4 - The Cardinals swing a trade for a top-end starter

My 2023 bold predictions had the Cardinals swinging a trade for a top-end starter, but with how the season unraveled, the opportunity just was not there and instead, they wisely added multiple top prospects like Thomas Saggese and Tekoah Roby instead.

The Cardinals are going to come up on three different opportunities this year to add a top starter via trade, and I believe they'll finally pull the trigger at one of these crossroad moments.

The first is obviously before Spring Training. I recently put together six trade ideas for the Cardinals based on how the offseason has gone so far, and I think there are a variety of starters they could get their hands on in the near future. The top three options to me right now would be Dylan Cease, Jesus Luzardo, or Framber Valdez, but there are also other options they could pursue.

If the Cardinals do not swing a deal before Spring Training, they'll be in prime position to make a move at the Trade Deadline. By that point, the Cardinals should have a good idea of what their starting lineup looks like. With the rise of Victor Scott II, one of Dylan Carlson or Tommy Edman could be available. Perhaps they'll be more comfortable moving one of Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, or Thomas Saggese. They have multiple pitching prospects like Tink Hence, Tekoah Roby, Cooper Hjerpe, and Gordon Graceffo who could be available.

Assuming the Cardinals are in position to make the playoffs, grabbing a top starter would make so much sense and make them a team capable of pulling off an upset in a short series with the National League powerhouses. The Cardinals have the pieces to pull it off, and it's trending like there'll be starters available this coming July.

It's so hard to know how things will shape up by July, but if there just aren't top-end starters available or the Cardinals go a different direction, it will be so obvious that a trade needs to happen by the time next offseason begins. We all can see that they need another top starter, but by the time next offseason comes around, if they haven't made that trade yet, they'll have so many assets without clear roles in St. Louis, that it would be malpractice to not package them for a starter.

Let's say Scott says the center field job, Winn is entrenched at shortstop, and Saggese is ready for a regular role. Let's list out all of the players needing regular playing time:

Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan, Masyn Winn, Victor Scott II, Ivan Herrera, Thomas Saggese, Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson, and Alec Burleson.

That's 14 players who should be playing every day, and there are only 13 roster spots to go around. This doesn't even include guys like Richie Palacios, Luken Baker, Cesar Prieto, and others who could be serviceable depth options on the Major League club. It's awesome that the Cardinals have so much talent on their big league roster, but with such a big need in the rotation, it wouldn't make sense to hold onto everyone.

Even if a few of those guys take steps back or become less valuable, I still think the Cardinals will be set up to make a splash, and they'll be able to do so without hurting the immediate future of their position player group. Tommy Edman feels like a very likely candidate to be moved to me, along with two of Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan, Thomas Saggese, Alec Burleson, and Dylan Carlson.

Prediction #6 - Oli Marmol or Yadier Molina are gone after 2024

Remember how I said there are some major decisions looming for the current and future front office? Well, one of those I believe will rear its head by the end of 2024 is deciding to either extend manager Oli Marmol or hire Yadier Molina as the club's next manager.

Marmol is a young manager who's been identified by Mozeliak as the Cardinals' next leader. Mozeliak remains high on him, but he did open the door for the ownership group potentially not being as committed to Marmol as Mozeliak is. This quote from Mozeliak on Marmol comes from Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (subscription required)

All of us understand the year we just came from,” said John Mozeliak, president of baseball operations. “And I’m very bullish on him. But I also work for an owner, and we want things to get turned around. And by no means is this putting all of the pressure on him. I don’t want that done. We are a team. And as a team, we have to change our trajectory from what happened in 2023. I’m very optimistic that Oli is someone who is going to be around for a long time.

Most of the time, Mozeliak keeps things close to the chest, but occasionally, he'll give tidbits of information on behind-the-scenes conversations, and this feels like one of those cases. Saying he's bullish on Marmol but also saying he works for an owner indicates that although there weren't mass changes to personnel on the front office or coaching staff after 2023, the leash will be short next year. Makes a lot of sense.

But I also think this has to do with the changing of the guard that is coming in St. Louis. It doesn't make a ton of sense for John Mozeliak to have a full say in who the manager is in 2025 or beyond, especially with Yadier Molina looming.

Molina's next gig is going to be as a manager. If he was going to be a bench coach, he would have done it this past season. It feels like the only thing that is going to lure him to a full-time commitment is as a manager, and that puts the Cardinals in a tough position this coming year.

Some people will say it should be an easy choice - just let go of Marmol and make Molina the manager. As much as I love Molina and think he'll be a great manager, there are a lot of strings that come with him being the next manager, and I'm not sure if the Cardinals are ready for that. What if Molina becomes the manager and things go poorly? How does that relationship go for the next few decades with their franchise icon?

The other reason I believe one of the two will be gone is that I'm not sure Molina is going to want to wait much longer for a manager gig. He has a lot going on in Puerto Rico and is enjoying his time with family, but it's clear he's itching to manager with his new role with the Cardinals and the manager gig he already does have aboard. If Marmol gets an extension after 2024, is Molina really going to turn down interviews for other openings around baseball?

There are so many factors at play here. How will the Cardinals perform in 2024? What does ownership want? What does the next regime think of Marmol and Molina? Does Yadi want to commit to that full-time right now? Is he willing to wait longer if Marmol sticks around long-term? Only time will tell, but it feels more likely than not to me that one of these two is elsewhere next year.

Prediction #7 - Sonny Gray has the best individual Cardinals' pitching season since Jack Flaherty in 2019

There seems to be a gap between how Cardinals fans feel about Sonny Gray and his actual performance throughout his career. Gray just finished second in American League Cy Young voting in 2023 and was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. Some like to say this was a one-off performance, but Gray has finished top-10 in Cy Young voting two other times in his career, and six of his eleven big league seasons have had a sub-3.10 ERA.

Do I agree the Cardinals need another guy to pair with him at the top of the rotation? Yes. Is there concern that he may start regressing here soon due to his age? Somewhat. But overall, Gray is someone fans can truly rely on at the front of the rotation and can easily pitch Game 1 or Game 2 in a postseason series.

I'm going to be bold and say that Gray puts up another incredible season this year, posting the best individual season for the Cardinals since Jack Flaherty in 2019. Remember how good Flaherty was that year? Let's take a moment to compare Gray's 2023 numbers to Flaherty's and the other two best Cardinals pitching seasons since that performance.

If you're not familiar with ERA-, it's very similar to ERA+ and takes a pitcher's ERA and compares it to the league average, with the center score being 100. Both Gray and Flaherty were 34% better than the league average in their respective seasons, but they did so in pretty different ways. Gray was consistently good all year long and struck out a bit fewer batters than Flaherty did. Flaherty relied a bit more on strikeouts, but his best production came during a historic second-half run.

I'm not necessarily predicting Gray to be that good again in 2024, but I am predicting he'll put up a season somewhere between Flaherty's 2019 season and Adam Wainwright's resurgence in 2021. Wainwright was 25% better than the league average in that season and was a top-10 Cy Young finalist. If Gray can be somewhere between 25%-34% above league average from an ERA perspective in 2024, that would be an incredible year for the new Cardinal ace.

Prediction #8 - Thomas Saggese carves out a regular role in St. Louis

No one likes what happened in 2023, but what I appreciated about how the Cardinals handled the 2023 Trade Deadline is they took the hand they dealt themselves and made the most of it.

Instead of just trying to hold onto Jordan Montgomery, Jordan Hicks, Jack Flaherty, and others while convincing themselves they can find extensions for them or get draft picks in return, the Cardinals found trades for their expiring assets, and in the case of Montgomery, they were able to acquire two different names who may find themselves in the Top 100 prospects in baseball in the next year or two, Tekoah Roby and Thomas Saggese.

In the case of Saggese, he was mashing the ball in Double-A for the Texas Rangers and got even better after his trade to the Cardinals. He ended up winning the Texas League Most Valuable Player Award and has moved his name right into the thick of the Cardinals' plans for the future. Baseball America just highlighted how well Saggese stacked up to his Double-A teammate Evan Carter, who just put on a show for the Rangers in their postseason run.

It's highly unlikely that Saggese makes his way onto the Cardinals roster early in 2024 barring a few injuries, but if his bat continues the trend it was on last season, they will not be able to keep him off the Major League roster. His emergence would make it even more likely that the Cardinals trade him, Donovan, Gorman, or Edman to acquire a top-end starter, but we also know injuries tend to pile up throughout the year. Donovan's flexibility allows him to move to the outfield, so Saggese could find time at second base, designated hitter, or maybe even shortstop at times.

I'm not going to call him a full-time player in 2024, but I do think he could be that clear 10th or 11th man on the roster who plays multiple times a week by the end of the season, and if position players aren't moved by the deadline, he'll force the Cardinals to move him or others to carve out time for their growing group of contributors.

Prediction #9 - Cardinals finally have an internal starting pitcher emerge in the Major League rotation

If the Cardinals are going to have sustained success over the 2020s and find a way to compete with the Dodgers and Braves in the National League, then they'll need to find a way to fix their biggest issue over the last 5-10 years, which is raising up quality pitching from their farm system.

Alex Reyes, Michael Wacha, Carlos Martinez, and the aforementioned Jack Flaherty were all supposed to emerge as guys since 2013. I just reflected on Shelby Miller's fall from grace recently on the site. You can even look at names like Dakota Hudson and Matthew Liberatore as guys who haven't lived up to their potential thus far, and potential aces that got away like Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen. The Cardinals have to start developing their own pitching for their rotation soon, or else they'll keep having to sign the back-end options to short-term deals to patch together their rotation year to year.

I believe in 2024 we'll see at least one arm emerge as a legitimate rotation member for the 2025 season. Not just a guy who can compete for a role, but someone who can be penciled into their Opening Day rotation, barring injury.

Zack Thompson will likely have a chance to claim a spot this year. As things currently stand, he's likely the next man up for the Cardinals if an injury happens, and he had a very encouraging second half once he was placed in the rotation for St. Louis. Gordon Graceffo is in Triple-A currently, and after battling injuries in 2023, will look to regain the momentum he built in 2024.

Drew Rom, Adam Kloffenstein, and Sem Robberse could all make runs at being a back-of-the-rotation option for the Cardinals long-term, and Liberatore still has the talent necessary to throw his name into that conversation. The Cardinals have built up pitching depth organizationally as of late, but the real question is whether or not someone can emerge as a middle or top-of-the-rotation option from in their system.

Tink Hence and Tekoah Roby have the best chances out of anyone in their system right now. Both guys are in Double-A at the moment and flash the kind of stuff you want to see from a top starter. Both guys are entering pivotal years in their development, and could even force their way into big league action if things break right for them.

Both Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson have club options for 2025, so the Cardinals have the flexibility to bring back all five starters again after this coming season. But in an ideal world, they'd be able to decline at least one of those options and rely on a guy internally in 2025, and if they trade for a front-line starter like I think they will, they'll have a very different rotation in the near future. With Gray's contract rising from $10 million in 2024 to $25 million in 2025, it would be huge for them to not have to pay another starter big bucks next year.

Prediction #10 - Cardinals return to the playoffs but are unable to get past the Braves or Dodgers

There's still a portion of the Cardinals fanbase that does not believe the Cardinals are much better than they were last year. I strongly disagree, but outside of making the playoffs, the front office has not done enough to raise this team's ceiling as a contender.

The National League Central is weak. As of right now, the Chicago Cubs have not made a single addition to their Major League roster. The Reds have made a variety of moves and present their biggest challenge right now, but I still like this Cardinals team a fair bit more. The Pirates are getting better but they still won't be a threat, and the Brewers are on their way toward a hybrid rebuild/retool.

Here's the other thing. The Cardinals won 71 games last year. The Diamondbacks and the Marlins both made the playoffs with just 84 wins last year. I've already talked about how the pitching upgrades they have made so far should make St. Louis a low to mid-80s-win team in 2024, and if they add some more help this offseason or at the deadline, I think it's pretty easy to see how they make the playoffs.

So, the Cardinals make the playoffs, probably as the division winner but at the very least as a Wild Card team, but beyond that, I do not have faith this team and go far without adding another top-end arm. Even if they do, you'd still pick the Dodgers and Braves over them in a series, and the Phillies will also represent a tough out in the National League.

The Diamondbacks just showed any team can make a run, so the Cardinals can surely do so as well, especially if they add that top starter to pair with Sonny Gray. But in all likelihood, the Cardinals will not be able to get past the Dodgers or the Braves this year, but they need to do everything they can to try and make it a series. Just trying to sneak in and not being aggressive with upgrades would be like waiving the white flag on this season. With so many assets at their disposal to upgrade this pitching staff and Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado not getting any younger, it's time to push some of these chips in and take some swings at the best of the National League.

Those were my 10 bold predictions for the Cardinals in the year 2024. Let us know your predictions on Twitter/X or Facebook!