10 bold predictions for the Cardinals trade deadline and rest of the 2024 season

The MLB All-Star festivities are officially over and the St. Louis Cardinals will open the "second half" of their season on Friday against the Atlanta Braves. The Cardinals' 2024 campaign thus far has been filled with ups and downs, as the club looked dead in the water as early as May 11th but has stormed back into playoff contention ever since.

Even as the Cardinals have ascended back into the postseason mix, things have not gone swimmingly across the board. As bats like Willson Contreras, Alec Burleson, and Brendan Donovan lead the Cardinals' offense, others like Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman, and Nolan Arenado still have not been the players we had thought they would be this season.

On the pitching side of things, the bullpen has been terrific, but cracks are beginning to show with some of their more highly utilized arms. The rotation has done its job this year, but it clearly needs another upgrade and some of the Cardinals' veteran arms have been shakier as of late.

With the trade deadline almost here and the Cardinals' push for October underway, I decided to give some takes on how I think the second half of baseball will go for this organization.

Here are 10 bold predictions about the St. Louis Cardinals' trade deadline and second half of baseball

Bold Prediction #1 - Masyn Winn finishes second in National League Rookie of the Year voting

Barring some crazy turn of events, it is hard to imagine a scenario where Paul Skenes does not run away with the National League Rookie of the Year voting this year. So for Masyn Winn and all other rookies in this class, the true competition is for who will finish second in the voting.

For the first month or so of the season, Cubs' starter Shota Imanaga looked like the runaway favorite himself, but he has been less and less effective as the year has gone on. While his ERA is still really good sitting a 2.97, it's risen to 3.31 over his last 15 starts and 4.62 over his last seven. I don't think Imanaga will be a bad starter the rest of the year, but I don't see him being as dominant as he was at the beginning of the year either.

Padres' Jackson Merrill and Brewers' Joey Ortiz will give the Winn a run for his money as well, but like Imanaga, both of them have seen regression in the past month or so as well. Ortiz is in this conversation due to his bat, and while his OPS still sits at .801, it has been rapidly declining as of late. Merrill's offensive production is very comparable to Winn's this year and he also plays at a premium position in center field, but I have more confidence in Winn maintaining his play down the stretch.

It will be a tight race, but that is also why I think Winn may have the edge. His ability to produce highlight plays with his glove, arm, and bat could sway voters in his direction.

Bold Prediction #2 - Cardinals trade for an impact starting pitcher

Honestly, I could see the Cardinals' trade deadline going in multiple different directions, and I honestly think they could as well. Frankly, I'm not sure there are many teams in baseball who know what to expect over the next few weeks either.

Right now, there are a lot of teams who still need to figure out if they are buyers or sellers. What teams like the Rangers, Blue Jays, Cubs, Mets, Diamondbacks, Reds, Pirates, and Rays decide to do will heavily dictate how much action we see at this year's deadline. If a lot of those teams hold pat or turn into buyers, we may see very little movement across the board.

I'm predicting enough of those teams will decide to sell, and coupled with already-known sellers like the White Sox, Marlins, Angels, Rockies, and Athletics, we'll see enough players available for the Cardinals to go out and get "their guy" as well.

I'm not completely ruling out the idea of them adding a bullpen arm or right-handed bat, but I'm just going to predict that they go out and get an impact starting pitcher - and what I mean by that is someone who they can throw in a playoff series, not just a number five starter.

Some names that clearly fit the bill for me are Max Scherzer, Erick Fedde, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, and Jon Gray. Other guys who could fit into that category as well but require a bit more "hope" would be Yusei Kikuchi, Jordan Montgomery, and Zach Eflin.

I'm predicting the Cardinals go out and get a player from that group (my official prediction being Max Scherzer) and have a much more promising rotation entering postseason action. I could see them settling for a number five starter type, but with the return of Steven Matz happening at some point (I think?), I'm not sure that profile of starter really does a whole lot for them.

Bold Prediction #4 - Cardinals shake up their bench, cut bait with veteran infielder

I debated this prediction a lot, as I do think the Cardinals are about to see their bench shake up a bit, but I was not sure which direction I thought it would go in. But the more and more I've thought about this, I landed on the Cardinals going in this direction.

First, Tommy Edman will be returning soon, but instead of him being the everyday center fielder like the club said he would be prior to the season, it does sound like he will platoon with Michael Siani and then be a utility man again as well.

So that is one spot filled on the bench. It's clear that Pedro Pages is their preferred backup catcher of choice right now, so that is a second spot filled. And third, I just don't see the Cardinals parting ways with Matt Carpenter this year, so that leaves just one more spot on the bench for the Cardinals.

Frankly, I think Dylan Carlson's days are numbered at this point, so I don't believe that will be his spot. Sure, the Cardinals could trade for a right-handed bat, but I'm not necessarily banking on that happening. That leaves two candidates in my eyes - Brandon Crawford and Ivan Herrera,

Herrera has been heavily speculated as a trade chip thus far due to his struggles with controlling the running game and the Cardinals' belief in Pages, but I just do not see a deal being available that makes sense to move Herrera in at this deadline. Perhaps they could do that in the offseason, but for now, I just don't see it. They could keep him in Triple-A for a prolonged period of time to try and develop his arm, but with how badly they need another right-handed bat on this roster, it would make sense for Herrera to fill that need.

That leaves to me the decision to release Brandon Crawford. While most fans have been frustrated by his presence on the roster this year, he no longer makes sense as a roster piece with Edman's return, so I think we will actually see the Cardinals make that call now that Edman will be back. If another injury were to occur, I'm guessing Crawford would be available in free agency, and if not, they can go with Jose Fermin or Thomas Saggese in a pinch.

Herrera taking that last roster spot for the Cardinals gives them a right-handed bat off the bench late in games and someone they could start against left-handed pitching. I could easily see the Cardinals running out a lineup like this when southpaws toe the rubber against them:

1. SS Masyn Winn
2. RF Alec Burleson
3. C Willson Contreras
4. 1B Paul Goldschmidt
5. 3B Nolan Arenado
6. 2B Brendan Donovan
7. CF Tommy Edman
8. DH Ivan Herrera
9. LF Lars Nootbaar

Bench: 2B Nolan Gorman, CF Michael Siani, DH Matt Carpenter, C Pedro Pages

That makes way more sense to me then cutting bait with Herrera now or allowing him to sit in Triple-A the rest of the year, so I think that is what the Cardinals will end up doing.

Bold Prediction #5 - Their pitching remains the same in the second half but the offense starts to heat up

Through the Cardinals' first 96 games of the season, their ERA as a club ranks 17th in all of baseball at 4.02. If you break it down further, their rotation has a 4.44 ERA (21st) and the bullpen has a 3.50 ERA (7th).

I personally think we'll see that rotation ERA look a bit better at the end of the season with the addition of an impact arm and Sonny Gray finishing strong, but we could see that bullpen ERA either remain consistent or slip a little bit if the miles that have already been taxed on their arms cause them to regress some. Overall though, I think the Cardinals know what they have with their staff and it will be more of the same from here on out.

The offense is a different story.

You could argue that the Cardinals' six most important hitters heading into the season have either underperformed or been unavailable so far this season. Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Nolan Gorman, and Jordan Walker have all been wildly disappointing at the plate while Willson Contreras and Lars Nootbaar have been productive but missed significant time. I'm not going to tell you that all six of them will be better or more available in the second half, but I have a hard time believing the overall production from those six players will be the same or worse.

Contreras picked up right where he left off upon his return, posting a .866 OPS since coming back from his broken forearm. When Contreras went down with his injury in May, the entire offense around him was brutal to watch, so putting his production back into a lineup that has been substantially better is a big deal. Lars Nootbaar tends to take time to heat up when he returns, but there is no doubt that if he is healthy, his bat is a big upgrade over what they had in his absence.

Arenado began to heat up in the weeks prior to the break, so maybe he can carry that momentum into the second half. Goldschmidt, Gorman, and Walker have far more talent than what their numbers suggest, so it is entirely possible we get better versions of them soon as well.

I'm not sure who the guys are that will produce here soon, but I do have a good feeling that this offense will be much better to end the year than it was to start the year. Over the last 30 days, Contreras, Donovan, and Burleson all have an OPS north of .866, so the Cardinals have their three impact bats in place. It's not hard to imagine that at least two or three of Winn, Arenado, Goldschmidt, Nootbaar, Gorman, Herrera, or Walker can supplement their production along the way as well.

Bold Prediction #6 - Cardinals have two players receive MVP votes

Speaking of that trio of Contreras, Burleson, and Donovan, I believe that at the end of the season, two of those three will receive MVP votes in the National League voting.

Despite missing significant time with a forearm injury, in 51 games, Contreras is slashing .271/.403/.514 (.917 OPS) with 10 HR and 24 RBI while playing really good defense behind the plate defensively. I'm confident that if he is that player the rest of the year, he'll finish top five in MVP voting in the National League this year. As of today, Shohei Ohtani, Bryce Harper, and Marcell Ozuna look like locks to finish in the top five, but Christian Yelich and Mookie Betts' offensive numbers are very similar to Contreras, and he is providing value behind the plate.

I believe Contreras will finish top five in the MVP voting, but it's safe to say that if he keeps this up or is even just close to this player the rest of the year, he's a lock for the top 10. Donovan or Burleson's spot on this list may seem a bit odd, but I am predicting one of them gets down-ballot votes for MVP this year.

Burleson is currently 19th in the National League in OPS and 11th in home runs, and if you look at his numbers since the start of June, you'll see that he has easily been a top 10 hitter in the National League, if not better. Burleson's bat has the ability to get him on this list, but I also wouldn't count out Donovan's ability to snag a vote as well.

Donovan has been 17% above league average on the season after a rough first month of the season. Over June and July, he's been 32% and 44% above league average at the plate, and he is doing that with Gold Glove-caliber utility defense as well.

Donovan's season numbers at the plate are great but not MVP vote worthy yet, posting a .276/.345/.411 slash line. But like Burleson, if Donovan maintains his hot performance this summer over the rest of the second half, his bat will be in the conversation and his defensive value and versatility should be the icing on the cake in order to land a vote or two finish outside the top 10 of voting.

Remember, in order to receive MVP votes, someone just has to put you on their top 10 of their MVP ballot, not receive an actual vote to win MVP. Last year, names like J.P. Crawford, Issac Paredes, Cal Raleigh, Josh Naylor, Dansby Swanson, TJ Friedl, Nick Castellanos, Devin Williams, Ha-Seong Kim, and Christian Walker all received MVP votes, so this isn't a crazy prediction by any means.

Bold Prediction #7 - Two Cardinals win Gold Gloves

As of today, I think the Cardinals have two strong candidates to win Gold Gloves in 2024 - center fielder Michael Siani and utility man Brendan Donovan.

Let's start with Donovan, who already won the NL Utility Gold Glove in his rookie year and is having a far superior season defensively this year. In 2022, when Donovan won the award for the first time, he posted a -3 OAA but was providing the Cardinals value at six different positions, helping him to win the award over the arguably more deserving Tommy Edman.

This year, Donovan has posted a 1 OAA thus far and has had to play a lot of left field for the Cardinals, which is by no means his most natural position. And yet, as the Cardinals' outfield is getting healthier, it is hard to find a reason to move Donovan out of that spot with just how good he has been for them.

But part of what makes Donovan so special is that he can hold down left field at a high level while the Cardinals are batting injuries, but he can also move around the field and provide value elsewhere. I imagine now that Nootbaar is back and Burleson is deserving of outfield time, we'll see Donovan play more infield than we did in the first half, and he'll keep on making awesome plays like he did in the Marlins series filling in for Arenado.

Left field, right field, third base, second base, or even first base, Donovan is going to be a positive for the Cardinals defensively, and I think it will lead to his second Gold Glove this year.

While part of Donovan's value is the fact that he is really good in a lot of places, Michael Siani's case for a Gold Glove this year is that he is truly elite in center field defensively, and I think it is pretty clear he has been the best in baseball out there this year.

Siani routinely gets to baseballs that most players cannot out in center field. Not occasionally, not just in big moments, but seemingly every game Siani is making a game-changing or run-saving play in center field. He has been a massive blessing to the Cardinals' pitching staff this year, and he is well on his way to getting a Gold Glove to show for it.

Bold Prediction #8 - The Cardinals chase down the Milwaukee Brewers and win the NL Central

On May 11th, the Milwaukee Brewers beat the Cardinals for the third straight time that weekend to put themselves nine games ahead of St. Louis in the NL Central standings. Since that day, the Cardinals have cut that lead in half to 4.5 games over the course of 57 games, and now have 66 games to see if they can catch the Brewers for the lead.

So far in July, the Brewers are 5-8, which is their first losing record in any month of this season so far. For most of the year, fans and media have been wondering if their offense and pitching can continue to overcome injuries and outperform their expected numbers, and at least as of late, it feels like they are coming back down to earth.

Now, the Cardinals have a difficult schedule remaining the rest of the year, while the Brewers look to be a bit on the easier end of things. It will not be easy for St. Louis to track down the Brewers, but I am convinced they will.

Comparing the club's rotations, I am taking the Cardinals the rest of the way and not even thinking twice about it. The Brewers' bullpen has been good, but the Cardinals' has been even better. And for as much as the Brewers' offense has continued to outperform their expected numbers, the Cardinals' offense has continued to underperform according to theirs. I think there are a lot of reasons to point to the Cardinals continuing to heat up while the Brewers cool down.

If we are being honest too, it is very "Cardinals baseball" for them to play their best baseball after the All-Star Break and especially after the trade deadline. The Brewers already went out and acquired Aaron Civale, and while they may do more, I doubt they are extremely aggressive in the market. The Cardinals have yet to make any upgrades of their own, and yet, they seem to be inching closer and closer to Milwaukee regardless.

I expect the Cardinals, even after their horrible beginning to the season, to find a way to win the NL Central this year.

Bold Prediction #9 - Cardinals win first playoff series since 2019

It’s wild to think the Cardinals have not won a playoff series since 2019 when they advanced to the NLCS and got swept by the Washington Nationals.

In 2020, they fell at the hands of the San Diego Padres. In 2021, they lost the Wild Card game to the Los Angeles Dodgers on a Chris Taylor walk-off. In 2022, they were swept by the Philadelphia Phillies in two games. And we all remember how 2023 went.

Should they win the division like I’m predicting they will, they’d likely face one of the teams currently fighting for the third Wild Card in the Mets, Diamondbacks Padres, Pirates, Reds, or Giants at home. There’s an outside chance they face the Brewers or Braves, but I would imagine they’d win the first two Wild Cards.

A lot can change between now and October, but I’d favor the Cardinals at home against any of the first six teams I mentioned. If they had to face the Braves or Brewers at home, it would be a close matchup, but as of today, I’d give the Cardinals the slight edge.

Even if the Cardinals don’t win the division and either have to host another wild card team or go on the road in that series, I’m still predicting they find a way to win that series. Anything can happen in a three-game series, but I predict that their solid rotation keeps them in games, and their deep lineup and stealer bullpen will win them the series.

If not, well, I'm predicting there will be change coming anyways.

Bold Prediction #10 - Chaim Bloom takes over as the President of Baseball Operations this offseason

Right before the All-Star Break, John Mozeliak did a short interview with Jim Hayes of Bally Sports Midwest, and while most of the conversation got lost in the shuffle due to the Cubs' series and MLB Draft, Mozeliak did seem to once again hint at Chaim Bloom's future with this organization.

While Mozeliak is still under contract for the 2025 season, there has been a belief around the industry that he could step back sooner than that. Not in the form of resigning and leaving the organization, but rather stepping into a different role for his final season, perhaps advising the new President of Baseball Operations while working on other things for the DeWitt family.

Back in June, I talked with Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat about John Mozeliak's future with the club as well as Chaim Bloom's role with the organization, and if you tune in around the 26:30 mark, Jones had some strong takes about Mozeliak's tenure ending sooner than later and Bloom being the guy the Cardinals want to take over.

I want to be clear, Jones was making predictions here, so this was not straight-up reporting of what is going to happen. It is perfectly reasonable to believe something else will occur, but I strongly agree with Jones' thoughts here. He brought up a really interesting scenario where Mozeliak could be down in Jupiter next year to oversee the building project going on at the Cardinals' Spring Training Complex while stepping aside for the next era of Cardinals' leadership.

Frankly, Mozeliak has been transparent for years that change was coming for this organization, and now that Bloom is in the fold and has been able to study the organization this year, I believe he'll be ready to take over the reins when the offseason gets underway.