One of John Mozeliak's greatest mistakes seems to be flipping into Cardinals' victory

If you ask John Mozeliak what trade he regrets making the most, he'll always refer to the Marcell Ozuna trade that cost the St. Lous Cardinals both Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen, but for quite some time now, fans have seen the Randy Arozarena trade right up there among the worst moves Mozeliak has made.

Matthew Liberatore and one of the Cardinals' top pitching prospects would like to have a word with those who still believe that.

Matthew Liberatore and Tink Hence are flipping the script on the Randy Arozarena trade for the Cardinals

On January 9th, 2020, the Cardinals traded away outfielder Randy Arozarena, first baseman Jose Martinez, and their competitive balance round A draft pick to the Tampa Bay Rays for left-handed pitching prospect Matthew Liberatore, catcher Edgardo Rodriguez, and the Rays' competitive balance round B pick. The Rays would go on to select infielder Alika Williams with that pick, while the Cardinals nabbed top prospect Tink Hence with the pick they acquired.

For quite some time now, the trade has gone heavily in the favor of the Tampa Bay Rays, who saw Arozarena go on an all-time home run heater during their 2020 postseason run to the World Series, follow that up with American League Rookie of the Year honors in 2021, and acruing 11.6 fWAR over four and a half seasons with the club before they flipped him to Seattle at the 2024 trade deadline.

The Cardinals could have used his bat over the last five years since they let him go, but they took the risk of parting with Arozarena because of the kind of arm they were hoping they could get in Liberatore. At the time, Liberatore was one of the top left-handed pitching prospects in all of baseball, but struggled to establish himself at the big league level until this year.

In 15 starts for St. Louis this year, Liberatore has posted a 3.96 ERA and 2.97 FIP, boasting one of the best BB% in all of baseball (3.4%) and logging six or more innings in 10 of his starts, tied for 18th among all starters in quality starts this year as well. Last night, Liberatore came up huge against the NL Central-leading Chicago Cubs, holding them to just two runs in seven innings of work on a scorching hot night at Busch Stadium.

Liberatore had a few starts recently that caused great concern for fans, as his velocity and fatigue issues began to kick back in for the lefty in a real way, but he seems to have found a way to overcome that once again. Liberatore's fastball averaged 94.8 MPH throughout the evening, and actually, off of his pitches besides his cutter, were thrown for a higher average velocity during the game than his average yearly velocity for each pitch.

With team control through the 2030 season, Liberatore may be developing into one of the Cardinals' best assets on the team right now, and if he's a cost-controlled middle of the rotation starter moving forward, that helps dampen the loss of Arozarena quite a bit.

On top of Liberatore, the Cardinals still have right-handed pitching prospect Tink Hence in the minor leagues, who just spun four no-hit innings with eight strikeouts in his first start for Double-A Springfield this year, leading to Springfield's second combined no-hitter in as many years.

That was Hence's first non-injury rehab appearance of the season due to a rib injury he suffered this spring. Hence is still being built up as a starter but has dynamic stuff, so if they do figure out a way to keep him healthy and throwing innings, he could be an impact starter like Liberatore has become for years. If not, his stuff would be electric in a bullpen role.

Ultimately, this is the ironic part about how all of us are so quick to trade grades in the moment, a few months later, or even just a few years later. Right now, the trade still tilts in the Rays' favor, but not by some landslide that many of us thought it did for so long. In a year or two, it may look pretty darn even or even in the Cardinals' favor. And depending on how the careers of Liberatore, Hence, and Arozarena unfold from here, it could be a slam-dunk move by Mozeliak and the Cardinals front office.

Starting pitching is immensely valuable in today's game, and if you could acquire a middle to front-end of the rotation starter in Liberatore and see Hence make a similar rise, the Cardinals come out major winners in the long view of this trade.