One expert believes the Cardinals are one of the teams furthest from contending again

The St. Louis Cardinals are embracing a self-proclaimed reset this offseason and going into the 2025 season, but does that mean the club has no chance of making the postseason next year?

Jim Bowden of The Athletic (subscription required) ranked the Cardinals' chances of making the playoffs in 2025 as 13th out of the 18 teams who missed the playoffs this year, highlighting the fact they may trade away veterans to reduce payroll and the club likely not resigning Paul Goldschmidt. Assuming he'd have each of this year's playoff teams above them as well, that would make the Cardinals the sixth least likely team to play in October next season.

Honestly, I don't think that is an unfair ranking for the Cardinals, especially considering the uncertainty of who will actually be on the roster next season. With that being said though, I do think Bowden failed to acknowledge multiple things about the Cardinals and how there are reasons to believe they will be a competitive team next season.

Despite the reset, it seems premature to count the Cardinals out of postseason contention in 2025

Despite what was a frustrating season for the Cardinals, the club did manage to finish 83-79, tied for the third-best record in baseball among teams who missed the playoffs. While there is a strong argument that they outperformed their true talent level based on the lack of production their lineup gave them last year, St. Louis also has attributes that could propel them back into that 80-something win range again in 2025.

First, even if the Cardinals are set to lose a lot of their veterans this offseason, some of those names aren't exactly net losses when it comes to production on the field. Paul Goldschmidt was exactly league-average at the plate in 2024 and was awful with runners in scoring position. Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn filled their roles last year, but neither are indispensable pieces, especially with young pitching on the way. Nolan Arenado was valuable, but at the dollar figure he is being paid, there are far better values out there.

Losing Ryan Helsley would be a tough blow for the club, but who knows what the players they get in return could do for St. Louis? Willson Contreras was by far their best hitter in 2024, but he only played in half of their games (and Ivan Herrera was awesome when given playing time). Sonny Gray won't be easily replaced.

Based on those latter losses specifically, I see why anyone would predict the Cardinals will finish with a worse record in 2025. But the point I want to make is that it feels like next year's club is going to have a wide range of outcomes. I don't think anyone would be surprised if the Cardinals finish with a bottom-seven record again as they did in 2023, but it also would not shock me if they win 83 games again.

While we are all expecting the Cardinals to part ways with a lot of their veterans, I still expect the Cardinals to make a few moves to add to their roster next year. I also think it is fair to expect some positive regression or even major steps forward from guys like Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan, and Lars Nootbaar. What do Masyn Winn, Ivan Herrera, Alec Burleson, and Victor Scott II look like as they continue to develop? Can Quinn Mathews, Tink Hence, Michael McGreevy, or other young prospects make substantial impacts next year?

I honestly don't know the answers to those questions, and I believe that is part of the reason why they decided to reset this offseason. 2025 is a year about seeing what they have in the "kids". If they produce, this club is a lot better than people may be thinking they will be. If they don't, well, it might look and feel a lot like the 2023 season. I don't think anyone can know right now with direction that is going to go, and that makes the Cardinals a fascinating team to follow this offseason and during the 2025 season.