New poll reveals ludicrous expectations regarding Cardinals mega-prospect Rainiel Rodriguez

Another game, another two home runs for St. Louis Cardinals minor league phenom Rainiel Rodriguez. The 19-year-old catcher is rapidly rising up the lists of the top prospects throughout baseball, and Brandon Kiley of the St. Louis sports radio show BK & Ferrario posed a question on X about whether a career for Rodriguez that matches that of former Chicago Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo would be a success for the Cardinals. So far, 745 votes in, just over 80% of fans have said yes, they would press the button for a Rizzo-like career.

That's about 20% too low.

Put your Cubs hatred aside for a second and take an objective look at Rizzo's time in baseball. The three-time All-Star had three top-10 MVP finishes during his 14-year career and was one of the most pivotal pieces in the Cubs' 2016 World Series run. From 2012 to 2020, Rizzo's nine full seasons with the North Siders, he had a 131 OPS+ — i.e., he was 31 points above league average.

Recall Kyle Reis' post on X in 2023 when he asked Cardinals fans whether it would be a disappointment if the team's top prospect at the time, Jordan Walker, were to have a career matching J.D. Drew's. A stunning 59% of voters said that it would be disappointing or fail to match the hype that Walker had been receiving.

In January of 2026, after Walker had suffered through two miserable seasons, Kiley asked if fans would be satisfied if JJ Wetherholt, who was yet to debut, were to duplicate Bo Bichette's career through 2025. It appeared that fans had experienced a bit of a reality check from Walker's failures to that point, as 89.1% of voters said they would feel great about that outcome.

With Walker breaking out in 2026 and Wetherholt playing at Rookie of the Year levels, fans' expectations may be growing to unrealistic levels again, and the 20% who want to press their luck on Rodriguez having a career like Rizzo's are neglecting an integral fact about the Cardinals wunderkind.

Rainiel Rodriguez's status as a catcher would place him in elite company with a career matching Rizzo's

With the eradication of the hitting pitcher, catcher now lays claim to being the weakest-hitting position on the diamond. If Rizzo were a catcher, his offensive runs created of 191.5 would rank 16th all-time at the position, just above Hall of Fame catcher Carlton Fisk. If we narrow it to Rizzo's career timeline of 2011 to 2024, he would be the greatest offensive catcher of the era, surpassing Buster Posey in offensive runs created by a whopping 42.1 runs. With his 125 wRC+, he'd be third, behind Buster Posey and William Contreras and ahead of Will Smith.

It's trickier to compare the two defensively because first base and catcher are radically different positions in terms of difficulty and the demands required, but over his career, Rizzo was the best first baseman in fielding run value, at 28, in 14,717.1 innings. No catcher has reached that number of innings, but if we were to cut that number roughly in half and use players with at least 7,000 innings caught from 2011 to 2024, Rizzo would be tied with J.T. Realmuto for fourth in fielding run value.

If Rodriguez provides those offensive numbers and improves his defense enough to become one of the best behind the plate the way Rizzo was at first base, you're looking at a Hall of Fame career. If you're not on board yet, I don't know what to say.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow