MLB insiders see Cardinals as a good fit for three free agent pitchers

Free agency has started in Major League Baseball. With qualifying offers being distributed and players officially becoming free agents, teams can now ink players to new contracts.

For the St. Louis Cardinals, this will be a largely quiet offseason in the free-agent realm. Ownership is wanting to cut costs this winter, and the roster is already quite full thanks to returning players and a need to play young guys.

However, it's not out of the realm of possibilities for the Cardinals to sign free agents this winter. John Mozeliak will have to be creative, though.

The 2025 edition of The Athletic's top 40 free agents mentions the Cardinals as good fits for three starting pitching veterans. Tim Britton, Chad Jennings, and Aaron Gleeman could see Shane Bieber, Nick Pivetta, and Max Scherzer as good fits for the St. Louis Cardinals. I'll analyze the case for each of these pitchers and determine if they are truly good fits.

RHP Shane Bieber

Shane Bieber's Tommy John Surgery couldn't have come at a worse time. He likely won't pitch until June of 2025 at the earliest, and teams will be wary of signing him to a multi-year deal coming off such a major surgery.

Bieber's strikeout rate -- his 12 innings in 2024 excluded -- has been cut in half since 2020, and pitchers coming off Tommy John Surgery typically take a year to regain their strength and prowess. There is an inherent risk in signing Bieber, but he will at least be cheaper than normal given these circumstances.

With the Cardinals in a multi-year retool, Bieber would make sense on a long-term deal. The Cardinals, thanks to a new TV deal and several other options being declined for free agents, have the payroll space to risk a deal for Bieber. This is a high-risk, high-reward signing that could benefit the Cardinals in 2026 and beyond.

Shane Bieber fit ranking: strong

RHP Nick Pivetta

Though he started his career with the Philadelphia Phillies, Nick Pivetta has gained prominence as a result of his time with the Boston Red Sox. Pivetta has thrown at least 142 inns in each of the last four seasons, and he started a league-leading 33 games in 2022. He has a career ERA of 4.76, but he's posted a sub-4.60 ERA these last four seasons including a 4.14 ERA in 2024.

The Cardinals don't sign Pivetta as a top-end pitcher. If they sign him at all, it would be to replace the production by Kyle Gibson or Lance Lynn. Pivetta's strikeout numbers have been strong these past two seasons, and he has the ability to pitch in relief or be a starting pitcher.

To me, the only way the Cardinals sign Nick Pivetta is if they trade away Steven Matz. This would open a spot in the rotation for a pitcher who has a more proven track record of health. Pivetta was also given a qualifying offer, so if the Cardinals sign him, they'll have to forfeit a draft pick, something they aren't interested in doing this offseason.

Nick Pivetta fit: low

RHP Max Scherzer

Ah, yes. Max Scherzer is back in the Cardinal rumor mill.

Ever since being a free agent in 2014, Cardinal fans have clamored for the Chesterfield native to come home. Scherzer, a first-ballot Hall of Fame candidate, isn't who he once was by any means. Scherzer threw only 43.1 innings last year due to a plethora of injuries, but he still finished the year with a 3.95 ERA and a 4.18 FIP. He's still effective, albeit in a much lesser quantity.

It's not expected that the three-time Cy Young winner will receive a lucrative deal this year, and he turns 41 in late July. Whoever signs Mad Max will likely pay around $5 million on a one-year deal. That's something the Cardinals could afford. Scherzer would also bring a sense of stardom and excitement to Busch Stadium.

Max Scherzer fit: strong